2022 3M Open Picks, Predictions & Best Bets: Outright Winner, Top 10, Top 20

2022 3M Open Picks, Predictions & Best Bets

The Open Championship lived up to expectations and was as exciting of a major as any golf fan could have imagined. Cameron Smith shot a Sunday 64 to catch and surpass Rory McIlroy and win his first major championship.

If you have been following along on these pages, you would have cashed that 22/1 future bet that we previewed in our Open Championship future article back in June.

Smith was our eighth outright winner of the season and we will look to make it nine after this week as the players head across the pond back to the United States for this week’s PGA Tour event — the 3M Open — at TPC Twin Cities. 

PGA Year-To-Date Record: +74.07 units, 34.62% ROI

Course Overview

This week’s track is at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota.

It is a par-72 that measures at almost 7,400 yards, making it one of the longer courses on Tour.

Long bombers have had success at this course, with Cameron Champ and Matthew Wolff winning in back-to-back years in 2020 and 2021 after leading the field for the week in driving distance. 

However the fairways are lined with penal rough as well, so unlike last week at the wide open Old Course, the players will need to be both accurate as well as long with their tee shots as well or they will be in a difficult position with their second shot.

Like as is the case almost every week, approach play will be the strongest indicator for success at TPC Twin Cities.

Historically, the 3M Open is a birdie-fest with the average winning score over the past ten years being just over -18. For that reason, we will be targeting players who can compile birdies in bunches this week.

Statistics to Look At

It is going to take a combination of long, accurate driving, hitting greens in regulation with solid approach shots, scoring birdies or better, efficient par-4 play, strong around-the-green play, and avoiding mistakes with the putter. 

For those reasons, the key metrics that our model is using to compile our portfolio this week are: SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Proximity 175-200 yards, birdie or better percentage, bogey avoidance, SG: Par 4s and three putt avoidance.

2022 3M Open Bets Outright Winner Picks, Odds

Adam Hadwin | +2500 at Caesars

Tony Finau is the model’s top pick this week, but we will be fading him in this tournament because we worry about fatigue after playing with no breaks in consecutive weeks and it’s a natural letdown spot after an exhausting weekend at a major championship last weekend.

Adam Hadwin is the model’s second highest rated player and it’s easy to see why. 

He enters with great form and ranks in the top-10 in all of the key metrics we are targeting this week including second in par-4 efficiency, sixth in proximity to the hole 175-200 yards, and first in strokes gained putting.

Hadwin also has great course history here at TPC Twin Cities with two top-10 finishes in his last two starts on this track. He has shown the ability to compete against a stacked field evidenced by his T7 finish at the U.S. Open a few weeks ago, and he should be poised to contend again at the 3M against this weaker than usual field.

Brandon Steele | +3500 at FanDuel

You need to be a good ball striker to contend at this course, and Brandon Steele has been the best ball-striker on the planet over the past three months — leading the Tour in strokes gained off the tee during that span.

He comes in with great form with two top-10s in two of his past three starts, and that was with losing strokes in all three of those tournaments on the green.

Steele’s weakness is his poor putting, but that flaw should be greatly mitigated this week as TPC Twin Cities is one of the easiest putting courses on the PGA Tour. 

Steele ranks number one in strokes gained off the tee in the field this week, and as long as his putter doesn’t totally betray him he should be contending for his fourth PGA Tour win come Sunday.

2022 3M Open Derivative Picks

3M Open Top 10 Picks

Maverick McNealy | +250 at FanDuel

Maverick McNealy has posted consecutive top-20 finishes in his last two starts, and is number one in the field in birdies or better gained — one of the most heavily weighted stats this week in what will surely be another birdie fest.

McNealy had the 54 hole lead here last year before shooting a disappointing 73 on Sunday to fall out of contention. He has the game and form to contend this week and we love his chances at posting his third consecutive top-20 finish and a back-to-back top-10 finish at TPC Twin Cities. 

Adam Hadwin | +250 at FanDuel

We love Hadwin to win this week, so it’s only natural to play him to place in the top-10 as well. He has a very strong course history here at TPC Twin Cities with two top-10s in each of his last two starts and it would be a disappointment if it’s not three in a row by the end of Sunday. 

3M Open Top 20 Picks

Adam Svensson | +200 at FanDuel

Adam Svensson is a golfer who is on the rise, and although he is not a household name yet, he will be soon.

He has been playing excellent golf over the past three months, making seven straight cuts and ranks seventh in strokes gained total over his last 24 rounds. He was the first round leader last week at the Barbasol and is in as good of form as anyone in this field. 

He also has some good course history here, finishing 15th last year in his only appearance. He gained 12 strokes from tee to green but lost over six strokes putting. He gained another 13 strokes tee to green last week at the Barbasol and he is a much improved putter from what he was last year.

We look for him to build on his 15th place finish from last year and challenge the top 10 or beyond in his second appearance here — +200 for a top 20 finish is amazing value.

Tyler Duncan | +350 at DraftKings

Tyler Duncan is another under the radar player who is poised to make some noise this week at a course that fits his game perfectly and a guy who is coming in with great form. He is fresh off a 13th place finish last week at the Barbasol where he gained 7.1 strokes from tee to green.

He is very accurate off the tee and is one of the best ball-strikers in the field. Against this watered down field, he has a great chance to notch a second straight top-20 finish.