In this betting preview, I’m going to share 5 player props I’m on to win $35,000.
Every play is rooted in math, data and logic. There’s no “BS” – all of these plays are Positive EV (e.g. mathematically profitable).
I’m not a writer, so I apologize for any typos. If anything is confusing, then you can feel free to reach out to us at [email protected].
The goal of all of my articles is just to help you become a more profitable sports bettor. I’ve used the betting tools on OddsJam to make over $400,000 betting on sports. There’s no “magic” to making money sports betting – it’s just hustle and understanding how betting markets work…
Pick #1: Lebron James Over 7 Rebounds
There’s a lot of ways to find profitable bets. One of my favorite betting strategies is scanning the OddsJam Screen and looking for line discrepancies.
In the screenshot above, you’ll notice that Lebron James has his “Player Rebounds” over/under set at 7.0rebounds on Underdog Fantasy. PrizePicks, a direct competitor to Underdog Fantasy, has Lebron’s over/under set at 7.5 rebounds.
FanDuel, DraftKings and every sportsbook also have Lebron’s o/u set at 7.5 rebounds. FanDuel & DraftKings even have Lebron over 7.5 rebounds as the favored outcome. FanDuel has Lebron over 7.5 rebounds at -122 odds, whereas the u7.5 rebounds is priced at -104 odds on FanDuel.
Long story short, there’s clear value on the o7 Rebounds on Underdog Fantasy. If Lebron has exactly 7 boards, then our bet will push, whereas everybody else who bet Lebron over 7.5 rebounds will lose. That’s called finding an edge!
Pick #2: Mikal Bridges Over 4 Rebounds
Next, I took Mikal Bridges over 4 rebounds. As seen in the screenshot below, every sportsbook has the line set at over/under 4.5 rebounds. Once again, we found value, or a bet with an “edge.”
I say this all the time, but, as a sharp, profitable sports bettor, you won’t win every day or even every week. Just check out my bet tracker variance… It’s all about aiming to make money over the course of the long run.
OddsJam will make you consistent, long-term profits, but it’s not a tout service… It’s about finding plays with a mathematical profit margin (called “edge”) and letting the math work itself out over the course of the long run.
Pick #3: Russell Westbrook Under 5.5 Rebounds
My third pick is from OddsJam Positive EV. Again, this betting tool is really simple to use: just place the bet in bold with a circle around it. That’s literally how I chose this play on Westbrook… Nothing complicated, just hunting for value in the market.
You’ll notice that every sportsbook has Westbrook under 5.5 rebounds heavily juiced. Betonline has Westbrook under 5.5 rebounds at -154 odds, and Caesars is all the way up to -163. Clearly, the under should be favored. Getting -122 odds on Underdog Fantasy is a “no brainer!”
The profit margin (e.g. “edge”) of this bet on Westbrook is 3.7% (circled in red above). To be clear, betting Westbrook u5.5 Rebounds at -122 odds has an “edge” of 3.7% – the odds or “price” matters… Betting Westbrook u5.5 Rebounds at -163 odds would not be profitable… As a sharp bettor, “price” matters. Any investor / day trader cares about the price they’re getting, and you need to as well as a sports bettor.
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To go deeper, over the course of the long run, placing bets with a 3.7% “edge” will yield an ROI of 3.7%. In other words, if you bet 100 Positive EV bets with 3.7% edge for $100, then you should expect to earn 3.7% x $100 x 100 = $370 in profit.
That’s why I say that more is merrier in sports betting – you want to place as many profitable bets as you can on a daily basis. You’re essentially forming your own portfolio of profitable picks.
Pick #4: Tobias Harris Over 5.5 Rebounds
This is another play straight from OddsJam. The Positive EV Tool defaults to sorting bets by profit margin. This should make sense, since you want to see the most profitable bets first.
You’ll notice that the play on Westbrook has a higher profit margin (3.7% vs. 2.13%).
Pick #5: Torrey Craig Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made
My final play is also from the OddsJam Positive EV Tool: Torrey Craig o1.5 Made Threes. My betslip on Underdog Fantasy is below, and best of luck if you tail!