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How to Find Profitable NFL Props: Sharp Sports Betting, Explained

<p>AP Photos</p>

AP Photos

There are two tools that I use every single day to find sharp bets:

  1. OddsJam Positive EV: This OddsJam tool is my favorite. It’s almost certainly the most profitable betting tool on OddsJam.
  2. The OddsJam Screen: Unlike the Positive EV Tool, the Odds Screen is useful for comparing lines set at different levels.

The Positive EV Tool

The Positive EV Tool makes it easy to find mathematically profitable NFL props. Positive EV bets are simply wagers with an “edge.” They’re not guaranteed to win. They’re not “super duper” locks.

Positive EV bets are very similar to weighted coins. Imagine there’s a coin that’s 52% to fall on Heads and 48% to land on Tails.

Now, imagine you’re flipping that coin with a friend for $100. Of course, you’d want to bet on Heads. Remember, though, that this coin will still land on Tails 48% of the time. There’s an 11% probability that this coin lands on tails the first three flips: 48% x 48% x 48%. In that case, you’d be down $300…

So, yes, you can still go on losing streaks with Positive EV betting. But that’s not the point. As a Positive EV sports bettor, you are mathematically guaranteed to win in the long-run. A coin that is 52% to land on heads is basically guaranteed to land on heads more often than tails over the course of 10,000 coin flips. This is due to the Law of Large Numbers.

Anyways, the point is: you’ll win long-term as Positive EV bettor, but you need to place a lot of sharp bets. It’s a volume game. You also need to be able to deal with variance. You will go on losing streaks.

Just look at my bet tracker graph above. This is from verified bet tracker Pikkit (my username is oddsjam_alex). I’m up $159,627.19 in 2022, but there’s a lot of ups and downs. That’s just variance… I know I have an edge and return 3.5% roughly over a large sample size, so my goal is to deploy as much of my bankroll as possible every single night.

If I bet:

  • $1,000 with a 3.5% return, then that’s $35 in profit margin
  • $10,000 with a 3.5% return, then that’s $350 in profit margin
  • Etc.

A Positive EV bet that I hit can be seen in the screenshot above: Devin Duvernay Under 2.5 Receptions at -120 odds on Betway sportsbook. It’s just the bet in bold with a circle around it – that’s the play that you want to be on.

Remember that the odds matter. Just like day traders and investors care about “price,” you need to care about the odds you’re betting at. The Positive EV bet is Devin Duvernay Under 2.5 Receptions at -120 odds on Betway sportsbook. You do not want to go bet Duvernay Under 2.5 Receptions at -140 odds on a different sportsbook.

The OddsJam Screen

In the screenshot below, you’ll see an NFL prop that I found using the OddsJam NFL Screen: Darius Slayton Over 3.0 Receptions on Underdog Fantasy (-122 implied odds). As seen in the screenshot, PrizePicks and every other sportsbook is setting Slayton’s receptions line at 3.5.

This is exactly what I mean when I say the Odds Screen is useful for pointing out lines set at different levels. Underdog Fantasy is at 3.0, every sportsbook is at 3.5. That’s information that we want to be alerted to as a sharp bettor.

I say this all the time, but there’s 1,000,000+ odds across sportsbooks. This market is dynamic, just like the stock market. Sportsbooks odds are NOT static. Weather changes, lines move. Sharp action comes in, lines move. Line-ups change, lines move. Players get injured, lines move. You cannot search through 100+ sportsbooks and all their odds manually, hunting for value, and expect to make money. It’s not possible.

The entire point of every tool on OddsJam is to make data actionable. The tools are designed to make it a lot easier for you to find mathematically profitable wagers. OddsJam is essentially a Bloomberg terminal for sports bettors.

As a note, while writing this article, I noticed Ben Skowronek u3 Receptions on Underdog was another incredible play. However, the line ended up moving on me before I could place my bet (from 3.0 receptions down to 2.5 receptions)…

Great lines do not last forever. You need to be fast to be a great sports bettor. As I say all the time, this is day trading sports.

Of course, under 2.5 receptions is a lot worse than under 3.0 receptions. If Skowronek has exactly 3 receptions, then we’ll push if we have the u3. Any wager on u2.5 would of course lose if Skowronek has 3 receptions.

The line you are betting at matters. Like a lot… Far too often, I hear of new sports bettors saying “I bet the under.” There are two things missing…

  1. The Odds
  2. The Line

Obviously, betting under 3.0 receptions at -115 odds is a lot better than under 2.5 receptions at -120 odds.

Anyways, my play on Underdog Fantasy is above. I have Slayton over 3 receptions as a part of a 3 leg parlay on this DFS platform.

My final play in this article is on PrizePicks. This is another DFS platform that offers player prop parlays.

My first pick on PrizePicks sportsbook is Quez Watkins Over 2.0 Receptions. As seen in the screenshot below, all books are setting his receptions line at 2.5. There’s a lot of value in o2 on PrizePicks.

I ended up playing four NFL props on PrizePicks. I have a four pick Power Play where I’m staking $100 to win $1,000. All of my picks were found on the OddsJam NFL Screen. I’m on:

  • James Conner Under 4.0 Receptions
  • DeVonta Smith Over 4.0 Receptions
  • Cole Kmet Over 3.0 Receptions
  • Quez Watkins Over 2.0 Receptions

My betslip on PrizePicks is below. Best of luck if you tail this sharp four leg parlay!

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