Best Bets for Game 1 of the WNBA Semifinals: Which Teams Have the Early Advantage?

After a bit of a break, the WNBA playoffs are back this Sunday, August 28th, and while things were up in the air for awhile, we’ll be seeing the four top-ranked teams taking each other on in these semifinal matchups.

There are two games to look forward to on Sunday, so we’ll be breaking down our recommended bets for both, the odds for which came from OddsJam. 

Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: Aces -4.5 | -130 at BetMGM

Sunday, 4 p.m. ET

On Sunday afternoon, the No. 4 Seattle Storm will be taking on the No. 1 Las Vegas Aces in the first game of a potential five game series. The Storm closed the season with a very impressive 22-14 record but the Aces still finished significantly ahead of them at a league-leading (tied with the Chicago Sky) 26-10 record that included an 8-2 record in their final 10 games.

It was no big surprise that both the Storm and Aces were able to advance past the first round in just two games apiece, although the Storm faced much stiffer competition with the Washington Mystics than the Aces did with the Phoenix Mercury.

But now that we’re on to the semifinals, the regular season records and first round victories are only a piece of the puzzle for both teams. This will be a series between closely matched teams, and one that could seemingly go all five games.

While the Storm are led by the inimitable Sue Bird, the reality is that this is a last hurrah for Bird, and at 41, her experience and talent is increasingly taking a backseat to her age.

Bird has played the lowest minutes of her career (with the exception of the shortened 2020 season in which Bird only played 11 games), and with the exception of her assist average, she’s posting at or close to career lows in all of her offensive numbers.

While her teams have often been able to lean on the 13-time All-Star, Bird and the Storm are now coming up against a younger, faster-paced offensive juggernaut in the Aces, and they may not have enough of their own respective firepower to win out.

While I do think this will be a competitive series, I think the Aces will have the advantage throughout, particularly in Game 1. With that in mind, I’ll be taking the Aces to cover the spread at -4.5, available for -130 odds at BetMGM.

We do always recommend line shopping on OddsJam, as different books may have preferable odds for greater or lesser point differentials, or may have better odds on Aces -4.5 as we get closer to the game.

Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky : Sky Moneyline | -165 at BetMGM

Sunday, 8 p.m. ET

For our second matchup on Sunday, we have the top two teams in the East this year: the Chicago Sky (26-10) and the Connecticut Sun (25-11). With only one game separating these two teams, the final rankings truly came down to the last game of the season for the Sky, and they were fortunate to draw a below-average Mercury team as their opponent in their last regular season game.

While the Sun came on strong to end the season (8-2 in their last 10, and on a three-game win streak to close the season), it was too little too late to overtake the Sky in the rankings, as the Sky handed the Sun their only two losses in an 11 game stretch. 

In the first round of the playoffs, both the Sun and the Sky were pushed to three games against teams that truthfully shouldn’t have been very competitive with them, although I don’t think that’s particularly indicative of the way this series will go.

More than anything else, the regular season record between these two teams seems to be indicative of how this series will play out. Despite their regular season success, the Sun went winless against the Sky in four games, and while two of those games came down to a single possession, there is strong evidence that the Sky matchup particularly well against the Sun, and just “have their number” this year, so to speak.

Unlike the Storm/Aces series, I’m not particularly confident that this one will be stretched to five games, and at the very least, I do expect the Sky to win Game 1. The Sun will likely come out hard to try to prove a point and swing the momentum in their favor, but the Sky will weather the barrage and take Game 1.

I’ll be taking the Sky moneyline for -165 at BetMGM. As with our bet in Sunday’s first matchup, we do always recommend line shopping with OddsJam to find the best lines available at a wide variety of sportsbooks.