Sharp Bets for WNBA Finals Sun vs. Aces Predictions: Lay the Points With Las Vegas in Game 1

The WNBA Finals have arrived: the two best teams in the WNBA in the Connecticut Suns and Las Vegas Aces will be matching up, and one team will win their first WNBA title.

We’ve been fairly high on the Aces all season, and we picked the Sun to win their series with the Chicago Sky, so this isn’t a hugely surprising matchup — but it does promise to be a hugely entertaining one. Don’t forget to check out any odds we mention here on OddsJam.com.

Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces: Aces -5.5 | -120 at BetMGM

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 6 p.m. ET

This Finals matchup is one that many have been expecting since early in the season. Both teams have been largely dominant throughout the year, and it’s, in many ways, the perfect matchup of the best offensive team in the WNBA in the Aces, and one of the best defensive teams (and the best rebounding team) in the Sun.

With the Aces being led by this year’s MVP and Defensive Player of the Year in A’Ja Wilson, and the Sun being led by former MVP Jonquel Jones, this matchup isn’t low on star power (and firepower) and should be an absolute back-and-forth battle for every bucket and every win.

Going into Game 1, there are two schools of thought on which team may have an advantage. One school of thought is that the Aces, after winning their series in four games, should be rested and ready to go for Game 1, particularly with it being on their home court. While the Sun will only have 2.5 days of rest, the Aces will have had the better part of a week, having last played on September 6th.

The other school of thought is the value of momentum, which the Sun certainly do have right now. After being down 2-1 after three games with the Sky, the Sun battled back and dominated the fourth and fifth games of their series, including a 24-point win in Game 4 that was truly never close.

Right now, the Sun are firing on all cylinders, and they’ve shown that they can go into their opponents’ houses and play them off the floor. But, as I mentioned, they’ve had minimal rest — the Aces have only played 6 playoff games in their run thus far, after sweeping the Phoenix Mercury and only dropping one game against the Seattle Storm. The Sun faced elimination against both the Dallas Wings and the Chicago Sky, totaling eight games in the playoffs thus far. 

With the advantage of their home court, and less wear and tear on their legs (and more recent rest heading into this matchup), I’ll be rocking with the Las Vegas Aces to win Game 1 of this Finals matchup, and I’ll be taking the Aces -5.5, available for -120 at BetMGM.

I do feel this is going to be a competitive series and the Sun will battle back throughout, as they’ve shown they can do time and time again, but the Aces have too many advantages headed into Game 1.