Sharp Bets for WNBA Finals Aces vs. Suns Predictions: Can Aces Bounce Back & Secure Title?

In the biggest blowout of the WNBA Finals thus far, the Connecticut Suns kept themselves from being eliminated with an impressive 105-76 victory over the Las Vegas Aces.

Now that we’re heading into Game 4 on the Sun’s home court, we have to collectively ask ourselves: Did the momentum of this series just shift or are the Aces still the dominant team in this series?

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Game 4 WNBA Predictions & Pick

Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun Pick: Sun Moneyline | Shop for the Best Line Above!

Sunday, Sept. 18 | 4 p.m. ET

With their win on Thursday night, the Sun have staved off elimination for at least one more game. And, as we predicted in our best bet preview for Game 3, they have kept themselves from being swept.

While the final score of Thursday’s contest makes it seem like the Sun beat the Aces down from bell to bell, that score doesn’t tell the full story. After a dominant 34-point first quarter for the Sun (in which the Aces only scored 19 points), the Aces actually outplayed the Sun in the second quarter (23 to 19) and the third quarter (27 to 24).

Going into the fourth quarter, the Sun had an 8-point lead, 77 to 69 — a strong lead heading into the final quarter of a Finals game, but nothing insurmountable. Of course, we all know how that ended — the Sun poured on 28 points in the fourth while the Aces only scored 7 (!) points in total to finish out the game.

The problems for the Aces came on all sides of the ball, but more than anything else, they were outrebounded and forced into bad turnovers. Not only were the total rebounds massively different (24 for the Aces, a whopping 38 for the Sun), but the Sun collected 10 offensive boards to the Aces’ three.

Advantages like that show clearly in the game and on the stat sheet, and all of those additional opportunities lead to an additional 17 field goal attempts for the Sun (77 to 60).

Going into Game 4, the big question is whether Game 3 was an aberration. Was it just the Sun selling out with full effort knowing that their chances to compete for a title were one loss away? Or have the Sun figured out the Aces’ schemes, and do they plan to use their physical advantages to take the ball out of the hands of the Aces players, punishing their high-powered high-pace attack?

My expectation is that the Sun will win another on their home court and force a Game 5 (which would be back on the Aces home court in Las Vegas). With momentum on their side, and the knowledge that they can out-rebound and out-muscle the Aces starters, the Sun are going to come out hot, and they’re going to extend this series.

This should be a closer game than Game 3, and will likely be a much more back-and-forth affair (I don’t see either team putting up a double-digit lead in the first quarter), but the Sun should win out to even up the series. This one is essentially a pick‘em, so I’ll be taking the Sun moneyline for -110 at BetMGM. Be sure to shop for the best line above before locking in your bet!