Mystics vs. Storm Series Preview Odds, Picks & Predictions: Back the Home Team in This Evenly-Matched Series

The WNBA regular season has come and gone, and now the playoff stage is set. Eight teams are in the playoffs, which start on Wednesday, August 17th. The first round matchups are below:

• 1 Seed Aces vs. 8 Seed Mercury
• 2 Seed Sky vs. 7 Seed Liberty
• 3 Seed Sun vs. 6 Seed Wings
• 4 Seed Storm vs. 5 Seed Mystics

One important scheduling note to make is that the first round series are a best of three, with the first two games hosted by the higher seed. What this means, though, is that if the lower seed forces a game three it will also be a home game for the lower seed in a do-or-die game.

In this article, we will preview the Mystics and Storm matchup, which is the most evenly-matched series in this first round.

Mystics vs. Storm Betting Preview

Although we don’t have series odds specifically since they aren’t posted on the sportsbooks, based off of the game one odds we can guess that this is going to be a close, hard-fought series.

The Storm, being the home team here, are favored by three points. General rule of thumb is that being at home is roughly worth three points, which tells us that the betting markets view these teams very similarly.

Which makes sense when you dig into the stats.

They finished with the same record of 22-14, and almost have identical net ratings as well. The Storm have a higher net rating, by exactly 0.01. So, clearly not much of a lead there.

Both teams have elite defenses with mediocre offenses as well. The Mystics have the best defensive net rating in the WNBA, while the Storm are third. Offensively, the Storm have the sixth-best net rating in the WNBA while the Mystics are seventh.

Both teams are also led by elite talents. The Storm are led by Breanna Stewart, who led all players in the WNBA in scoring, while the Mystics are led by Elena Della-Donne.

Della-Donne is a former two-time MVP of the league and WNBA champion, but has missed a ton of time the past couple years with back issues. She made her return earlier this season and seems to be in good health.

So, all-in-all these are two teams that are almost identical to each other.

Where the Storm have the advantage, though, is being at home. They go from a net rating of 5.2 (4th in the WNBA) all the way up to 8.1 at home (2nd in the WNBA).

Most teams play better at home, of course, but the Storm have an outlier advantage playing in the comforts of their home crowd.

Them getting the first two games at home will most likely be the deciding factor in the series, which is why I slightly lean towards the Storm in this series.

Mystics vs. Storm Series Pick: Storm Win Series 2-1