UFC 281: Israel Adesanya-Alex Pereira, Carla Esparaza-Zang Weili, Michael Chandler-Dustin Poirier Early Moneyline Bets- November 12

UFC 281 features a stacked card of high-level names and high-excitement fights. Loaded cards present high chances to walk out with your hand and bankroll raised high after knockout bets like these.

Israel Adesanya (c) vs. Alex Pereira Pick: Adesanya Moneyline  | -205 at DraftKings

Middleweight Championship  | Main Event | 12 a.m. ET

Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira familiarised themselves with their rival’s striking game in kickboxing. UFC 281’s challenger won both contests. In the second bout, he famously became the first and only person to knock out Adesanya in professional combat sports by pressuring Adesanya and eventually catching him with a left hook.

Don’t assume Pereira will automatically become the first person to take the middleweight belt off “Style Bender” in the Octagon just because he was the first to take the champion off his feet in the ring. Assumptions are dangerous and so is the calculated, rangy onslaught of the UFC’s ultimate middleweight. 

Rings afford aggressors the ability to cut off opponents or maintain pressure into the ropes. The UFC Octagon is 30 feet in diameter, at least 10 feet wider than large-sized boxing/kickboxing rings. Adesanya thrives in space where he can maximize his 80-inch reach and supreme ability to strike at only his distance. Pereira surrenders considerably less reach than most Adesanya adversaries. However, the champ’s constant feints and weird angles appear optimized for spacious striking the UFC facilities.

Mental prowess matches physical capabilities. There is arguably nobody better at deciphering MMA offensive plans and responding with the correct counter than Adesanya. A significant amount of marquee matchups — eight more title fights and 10 more UFC fights than Pereira — forged the striking smarts. 

This weekend marks the first time outside of kickboxing that the calculated champion has a chance to avenge a loss. A full camp at City Kickboxing (one of MMA’s finest) to bring his best into the octagon increases the chances vengeance will be realized.

Pereira’s decorated kickboxing career and dispatching of his initial MMA opponents suggests he is no slouch in striking intelligence either. However, a lack of experience translates to a lack of tools in MMA’s various other situations. 

For example, Adesanya enjoys a ground advantage for once. He showcases quick scrambles at middleweight and has nearly achieved a couple of triangle chokes against championship opponents in the past, due to his long limbs acting as a great natural lever and opponents being caught off guard. 

To be clear, it’d be shocking if this fight spends significant time in any position that isn’t mutually upright. Sticking with the theme of surprise, it’s worth noting Adesanya rocked Pereira in their first kickboxing contest to the point of a near-finish. Many feel Adesanya won that contest.

Don’t be floored to see those last four words memorialize this highly anticipated main event, despite the challenger’s famous knockout.

Carla Esparza vs. Zhang Weili Pick: Weili Moneyline  | -320 at DraftKings

Women’s Strawweight Championship  | Co-Main | 10 p.m. ET

“The Cookie Monster” Carla Esparza tastes sweet victory when she outwrestles opponents and outmaneuvers them on the ground. She deploys one of WMMA’s best balances of strong wrestling complimented by jiu-jitsu. 

Unfortunately for the newly crowned champion, Zhang Weili is probably the physically strongest woman at strawweight outside of Jessica Andrade. Specializing in elbows and back fists like the one that just sent WMMA legend Joanna Jędrzejczyk into retirement deters too many clinchers/grapplers from proving otherwise. Only Rose Namajunas has taken her down.

In fairness, Carla Esparza surpasses anyone Zhang has faced in the pure grappling department. However, Jedrzejczyk weaponized a terrifically tight clinch that Zhang thwarted consistently. Anyone who saw the bedazzling first fight knows resilience is a hallmark of Zhang’s, boding well for surviving grueling grappling on the mat or against the fence.

I look for Zhang’s strengths to surprisingly neutralize Esparza’s here. It’s also worth keeping in mind that, although Esparza technically beat Namajunas and Zhang struggled multiple times, MMA math rarely works out. 

The victory was also so uneventful, that a conspiracy theory floated around regarding a possible non-violence agreement, given Esparza was getting married later that month.

Michael Chandler vs. Dustin Poirier Pick: Poirier Moneyline  | -210 at DraftKings

Middleweight | Main Card| 10 p.m. ET

I’d advise betting on this cool contest for Fight of the Night honors if that was a bettable prop.

Since it’s not, I suggest avoidance instead. Both are powerful and although Dustin Porier is one of MMA’s best boxers as shown in the second McGregor fight, he is highly susceptible to emotional brawling and hittable while doing so. 

Michael Chandler exemplifies the signature spirit of great wrestlers with good stopping power in their hands and a strong will to push through adversity. There is not always a will where there’s a way in MMA. Chandler has been stopped numerous times throughout his career and found adversity when overmatched on the feet, due to poor striking defense.

The ghost of Tony Ferguson fails to qualify as someone who overwhelms opponents in 2022. Nonetheless, he outstruck Chandler for the first round before Chandler put his foot down — or rather up —on that jarring situation.

Poirier’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu and particularly his guillotine game stalemates Chandler’s takedown prowess and strong ability to avoid submissions throughout his career.