UFC 280: Charles Oliveira-Islam Makachev, Aljamain Sterling-T.J. Dillashaw, Sean O’Malley-Petr Yan Early Moneyline Bets – Oct. 22

UFC 280 features a stacked card of high-level names and high-excitement fights. Loaded cards present high chances to walk out with your hand and bankroll raised high after knockout bets like these.

Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makachev  Pick: Oliveira Moneyline  | +145 at DraftKings

Lightweight Championship  | Main Event | 5 p.m. ET

Styles make fights, not necessarily records. Islam Makachev excites oddsmakers as a 22-1 title contender reminiscent of his teammate and the ultimate lightweight mauler Khabib Nurmagomedov. 

The younger American Kickboxing Academy product shares a relentless wrestling style that effortlessly chains into Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Unique techniques like the mermaid pass that locks both legs of the opponent to sweep on either side deflect routine escapes when opponents are downed. Makachev compliments a grueling grappling game similar to Khabib’s with far superior striking skills, particularly in the clinch.

Uncrowned lightweight king Charles Oliveira welcomes a fight wherever it goes with open armbars. The badass Brazilian owns the most submissions in UFC history with 16. Former jiu-jitsu world champion Davi Ramos commanded immense respect from Makachev at UFC 242. Defensive tying of the hands stalemated ground action in serious situations, forcing the victor to strike. A similar situation unfolded against Thiago Moises. 

Oliveira’s MMA ground grappling surpasses both. His lengthier frame creates armbar and triangle opportunities Makachev’s previous opponents didn’t have at their disposal. The exponentially greater success at leveraging these attacks and chokes for high-level submission wins forecasts another instance of Makachev looking to stay cautious and upright.

Oliveira poses the greater threat should the fight go there. Makachev’s aforementioned improved striking game primarily through boxing earns enough respect to prevent his takedowns from being telegraphed. However, Oliveira weaponizes rangy kicks, brutal short elbows, and improved punches of his own that recently knocked out top contender Michael Chandler. That’s just one of nine career knockouts for the man with the most UFC finishes.

Patience behooves both fighters here. Makachev’s style leaves him prone to guillotine counters on takedown shots. Dustin Poirier nearly made an ultimate example out of Khabib, putting the legend in arguably the worst spot of his typically spotless MMA career. Oliveira sinched guillotine chokes on five UFC opponents, including wrestlers Kevin Lee, Clay Guida, and Nick Lentz.

A counter-heavy style draws unnecessary aggression and ultimately mistakes out of past opponents. Oliveira fights in passionate blitzes, so he’ll need to pick his spots here.

I love the underdog’s chances to not only do so but reach superior positions in the favorite’s own game and beyond. 

Aljamain Sterling ( C ) vs. T.J. Dillashaw Pick: Sterling Moneyline  | -175 at FanDuel

Bantamweight Championship | Co-Main | 2 p.m. ET

Aljamain Sterling validates his “Funkmaster” nickname every time he steps into the Octagon. He doesn’t lay down groovy bass riffs, but he navigates backs with the same mesmerizing ability as Flea’s fingers climbing bass frets 

Don’t confuse rear naked chokes with the Red Hot Chilli Peppers, but the underrated bantamweight champ leaves opponents with plenty of scar tissue anyway.

Inactivity intensifies the challenges of preparing for an unorthodox champion in the best of circumstances. T.J. Dillashaw has only fought once in the last 3 ½ years due to suspensions stemming from failed tests for multiple performance-enhancing drugs and a recent knee injury.

The consequential rust diminishes the look of a fighter who needs to keep this bout standing. Dillashaw relies on a balance of power and speed on the feet. Both attributes raise question marks here. 

Being under tight surveillance for drug testing infractions presents a fair point about a diminished capacity to recover for a lighter fighter preparing for the highest level in the division while approaching age 37.

Age breeds experience, which is where Dillashaw shines on the feet here. The other unknowns make betting on the underdog a ‘ruff’ proposal here.

Petr Yan vs. Sean O’Malley Pick: Yan Moneyline  | -265 at DraftKings

Bantamweight | Main Card | 2 p.m. ET

Too much sugar decreased your health. Too much “Suga” on your betting slips lowers your betting bankroll. Sean O’Malley crushes cans and in fact, his kicking game deserves serious attention — unlike the clownish outfits and matching Bozo persona. 

Serious competitors Pedro Munhoz and Marlon Vera proved opponents who wait out the flashy displays and meme-worthy trash talk get the last laugh. 

Nobody accuses Petr Yan of getting too cute. He possesses extreme power for the weight class. One of the biggest combat brains in the UFC puppeteers the brawn. Sterling outfoxed Yan in his last fight, but the current champ is an outlier in every sense. 

Yan has shut out multiple Hall of Fame-worthy strikers in the past, including arguably the greatest Jose Aldo. Saturday’s competitor has embraced grinding fights against very good tacticians that might not be in that hallowed conversation but stepped up to the elite level.

“Very good” reaches an overall MMA level O’Malley hasn’t reached.