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Alex here, the founder of OddsJam. I love betting on UFC fights, and you do, too, so let’s get into the best MMA picks for Santos vs. Hill on 8/6.
UFC 277 on July 30 was not a let down. Amanda Nunes reclaimed her belt in the Women’s Bantamweight Division. She dominated Julianna Peña over five rounds, ultimately winning by decision. Peña had her moments and submission threats, but she was no match for Nunes on 7/30.
In the co-main event, Brandon Moreno brutally knocked out Kai Kara-France in the third round.
We’ll be looking ahead to the UFC on ESPN fights on August 6 in this betting preview. The fight card is not as stacked UFC 277, but there’s still some great bets out there.
The main event on 8/6 is Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill. The co-main event is Vincente Luque vs Geoff Neal.
Heavyweight | Main Card
In my opinion, the best bet for UFC on ESPN on August 6, 2022 is Augusto Sakai at +190 moneyline odds. As seen on the OddsJam MMA Odds Screen, Sakai is best offered at +190 moneyline odds on Caesars sportsbook.
Spivak has the best line on DraftKings at -210 moneyline odds. Always make sure to get the best possible odds in your location. This is referred to as line shopping, and it’s (by far) the most important concept in sports betting.
Augusto Sakai is #14 in the Heavyweight Division. He’s 15-4-1 with 11 of his wins coming by knockout.
Sergey Spivak is 14-3 in the UFC. Spivak is definitely a more versatile fighter than Sakai, boasting 6 wins by TKO and 6 wins by submission. For a big man, Spivak has an absurd submission game.
I do think that this fight will end by decision. That’s my prediction for this Main Card fight on August 6.
I’m also on the over 2.5 total rounds in this fight. This was a play from the OddsJam Positive EV Betting Tool. I think there’s great value in being able to get the o2.5 rounds above +125 odds. I locked it in for about $80.
However, I think that this fight should be closer to a “coin flip.” By that, I mean Augusto Sakai should be nowhere close to +190 moneyline odds. I think that betting markets are pricing him as too large of an underdog.
The sharp UFC bet I have for this fight is Sakai moneyline at +190 odds on Caesars sportsbook. I think that this is one of the best UFC bets for 8/6/22. In my opinion, this fight is a toss up. Being able to grab +190 odds is ridiculous value, and I’ll take that any day of the week.
Light Heavyweight | Main Card
The main event in UFC on ESPN on 8/6/22 is Jamahal Hill vs Thiago Santos. Jamahal Hill has the best betting line at -260 odds on DraftKings sportsbook. Thiago Santos is best offered at +240 moneyline odds on Caesars sportsbook.
Although I don’t have an official pick for this fight (at least yet!), I think backing Hill is the optimal play. He’s, by far, the better fighter. However, at -260 moneyline odds, I have no desire to lock in a bet on Jamahal Hill.
Thiago Santos has 15 wins by TKO and 8 first round finishes in the UFC, so I don’t think it’s worth touching the odds right now at -260.
Welterweight | Main Card
The final fight I’ll analyze is Vicente Luque vs Geoff Neal. I think this fight is straight forward, back Vicente Luque on the moneyline. In my opinion, he should be closer to -250 odds.
Geoff Neal has ten finishes in the UFC, but I think Luque is highly underrated. I think he’ll get the job done against the Geoff Neal on August 6, 2022, and I’ll be looking for the best line to bet on Vicente Luque. My prediction is that Luque will win by submission in the second round.
Women’s Bantamweight Division | Preliminary Card
The final UFC prediction I have is in the Preliminary Card. I’m on Stephanie Egger moenyline at +114 odds. Egger opened as a +135 underdog, but she’s been hammered down to +114.
I hit this MMA betting pick for UFC on ESPN on August 6, 2022. My bet is for $175 on FanDuel sportsbook.
I also added this UFC prop bet for 8/6/22 in Mayra Bueno Silva vs Stephanie Egger. I’m on under 2.5 total rounds at +192 odds. FanDuel sportsbook gave me a maximum wager size of $65.10 for this MMA prop, and I locked it in!
Since FanDuel sportsbook limited by stake, I placed this bet again on WynnBet sportsbook at +195 odds. I really like this UFC play above +180 odds. I think it’s one of the best UFC betting picks for the Early Prelims on August 6.