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UFC

UFC Fight Night: Paddy Pimblett vs. Jordan Leavitt Betting Preview – July 23:

<p>AP Photos</p>

AP Photos

Paddy Pimblett is the featured attraction on this Fight Night card as a Barstool athlete with over one million instagram followers. Jordan Leavitt is a seasoned fighter with ten years of experience and an unorthodox skill set.

Leavitt is a decided B-side in this matchup, but the market has been strongly supporting him in close proximity to the contest.

Paddy Pimblett is down to -238 (70.4% implied odds) on Pinnacle Sportsbook, the lowest available price on his money line, a dire sign for a big favorite this close to fight time.

If you are looking to bet Pimblett, Pinnacle or 5Dimes are your two best bets in terms of price on Paddy. If you want to back the underdog on the moneyline, BetRivers will be your best bet, offering +225 odds (30.8%).

Looking at the method of victory market for this fight also tells an interesting story. Pimblett is being priced as more likely to win by every method of victory, with FanDuel offering +250 (28.6%) on the SUB prop, +380 (20.8%) via DEC, and +240 by KO (29.4%).

This suggests oddsmakers are expecting a Pimblett KO as the most likely resolution to this fight according to current odds. Conversely, Jordan Leavitt is being priced as most likely to win via DEC at +500 (16.7%) despite the fact that he is fighting in enemy territory against a local fighter which I find a bit puzzling.

Leavitt to win by SUB is +600 (14.3%) and his KO is the least likely prop according to current odds at +1300 (7.1%). If you line shop aggressively, you can find valuable looks like Leavitt by SUB at +700 on BetRivers/Unibet and Pimblett by Decision at +450 (18.2%) on William Hill.

In terms of the totals market, oddsmakers have settled on a 2.5 round total with the chalk towards the under to a market average indication of -189 (65.4%), however Pinnacle (sharpest market in the world) is undercutting the Under 2.5 Rounds by offering the lowest market price of -163 (~62%).

If you’re looking to bet the over, you can find the best plus money price at FanDuel with a +152 (39.7%) comeback. In order to play the fight not to go the distance, you are asked to lay pretty significant chalk, with the best available price at -250 (71.4%) on PointsBet.

If you’re looking to play the fight goes the distance, you can get the best bang for your buck on FanDuel with a +210 (32.3%) tag on the “goes the distance” prop.

My initial prediction for this fight was Paddy Pimblett to win via Decision, so I think you can find worse looks on the card than +$ on the over and potentially even the fight to go the distance.

However, given Leavitt’s submission proclivities and the scrambly nature of the grappling in this fight, I don’t hate a look on either of these fighters to win via submission or the fight to end via submission prop if your book offers it.

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