The NCAAB tournament may be going on right now, but there’s also a loaded card for the UFC Fight Night on March 26th. There are currently fifteen total fights scheduled for this UFC Fight Night. There would have been seventeen total, but two fights have already been canceled – Jan Blachowicz vs Aleksandar Rakic and Amanda Ribas vs. Michelle Waterson.
Max Griffin moneyline at +170 odds on Caesars (as well as Griffin by TKO)
I am going to take you through all of my expert picks & predictions for the 3/26 Fight Night Preliminary Card fights in this article. Let me know if you are tailing by emailing [email protected]!
Luis Saldana vs Bruno Souza Picks & Predictions
The first fight for the UFC Preliminary Card on March 26th is Luis Saldana vs Bruno Souza. This is projected to be a very close fight, as seen by the moneyline odds below. Souza is a slight underdog, and the best price on Souza is +116 odds on FanDuel sportsbook.
When sportsbooks initially opened UFC betting lines, Souza was a bigger underdog, but lines have continued to move towards him. Sports bettors have continued to place bets on Souza to win, so bookmakers have continued to move the odds lower on him.
I was able to find a fantastic bet on this UFC fight using the OddsJam Positive EV sports betting software. I’m on the UFC pick of Souza moneyline at +116 odds on FanDuel, I think those odds have tremendous value compared to the rest of the market.
Although Souza lost his last fight against Melsik Baghdasaryan, he’s 10-2 in the UFC. He has 45% striking accuracy and is an incredibly efficient fighter. I think he should be favored in this fight against Saldana.
My bet on this fight is below. I have one unit ($100) on Bruno Souza moneyline at +116 odds on FanDuel. This is my favorite bet for the UFC fights on 3/26. My UFC prediction is that Souza will win by unanimous decision.
Bruno Souza by unanimous decision. I do not expect this fight to end by stoppage.
Aliaskhab Khizriev Vs Denis Tiuliulin Picks & Predictions
The second UFC fight on 3/26 is Aliaskhab Khizriev Vs Denis Tiuliulin. My prediction is that this fight will not be interesting. As seen in the image below, Khizriev is currently a big favorite. The best price on Khizriev is -310 on FanDuel sportsbook.
Because these odds are heavily juiced in favor of Khizriev, I do not have a bet on this fight. Khizriev is 13-0 entering this match-up, but he’s relatively new to the UFC, so I have no intention of placing a bet on this fight unless Khizriev dips below -250 moneyline odds.
Khizriev has 83% striking accuracy, which is incredibly high. In his 13 UFC fights thus far, he has 5 wins by knockout and 4 wins by submission. He is an incredibly proficient fighter with a myriad of ways to finish his opponents. I would not recommend betting on Denis Tiuliulin, who boasts a record of 10-5.
Aliaskhab Khizriev Vs Denis Tiuliulin Pick:
Although I don’t have a bet on this fight yet, I’d lean to bet Khizriev -310 on FanDuel.
Aliaskhab Khizriev Vs Denis Tiuliulin Prediction:
Aliaskhab Khizriev by knockout. I believe this fight will end by stoppage.
David Dvorak v Matheus Nicolau Picks & Predictions
The third UFC fight on March 26th is David Dvorak v Matheus Nicolau. This will be a very close matchup, as seen in the UFC odds below. Nicolau is currently a slight underdog, and the best moneyline price on Nicolau is +120 on DraftKings or Caesars, as seen in the image below.
David Dvorak v Matheus Nicolau Pick:
I am not planning to bet on this fight. In my opinion, it should be a very close UFC match. I’d lean to bet on Nicolau if anything.
David Dvorak v Matheus Nicolau Prediction:
I predict Nicolau will win by stoppage (e.g. TKO or submission), but I am not very confident in my prediction for this fight.
Danaa Batgerel Vs Chris Gutierrez Picks & Predictions
Danaa Batgerel Vs Chris Gutierrez should be another great UFC fight on 3/26. Gutierrez is currently the underdog. The best odds on Gutierrez are +140 on DraftKings sportsbook.
Danaa Batgerel vs Chris Gutierrez Pick:
I don’t have a bet on this UFC fight yet. I’d lean to bet Danaa Batgerel by TKO, but I haven’t found a great price yet.
Danaa Batgerel vs Chris Gutierrez Prediction:
Danaa Batgerel by TKO.
Sara McMann vs Karol Rosa Picks & Predictions
The fifth UFC fight of 3/26 is a WMMA match. It’s Sara McMann vs Karol Rosa. McMann is currently a +189 underdog, and her implied win probability is roughly 33% using a no-vig fair odds calculator.
I think Rosa will get the job done in this fight. Although she has four wins by TKO, as well as two submission wins, I think that this fight will end by decision. My UFC prediction is that Karol Rosa will win by unanimous decision.
Sara McMann vs Karol Rosa Pick:
I don’t have a UFC bet locked in for this fight.
Sara McMann vs Karol Rosa Prediction:
Rosa by unanimous decision.
Tucker Lutz vs Seung Woo Choi Picks & Predictions
The sixth UFC fight for March 26th is Tucker Lutz vs Seung Woo Choi. FanDuel is the only sportsbook that has already posted moneyline odds for this fight. As seen in the image below, Choi is currently at -192 favorite. Using a no vig fair odds calculator, Choi’s implied win probability is roughly 62% once the vig (or “juice”) is removed.
Both Lutz and Choi have only 14 fights in the UFC. Choi (the favorite) has a 10-4 record, whereas Lutz (the underdog) has a 12-2 record. My UFC prediction is that Lutz will win this fight.
Tucker Lutz has 6 wins by TKO. My prediction is that Lutz will knock out Choi in the second round of the fight.
Marc Diakiese vs Viacheslav Borshchev Picks & Predictions
The 7th match for the UFC Fight Night on 3/26 is Marc Diakiese vs Viacheslav Borshchev. Borshchev enters this fight with a 6-1 record and 5 wins by TKO. My UFC prediction is that Borshchev will knock out Diakiese in the second or third round.
Marc Diakiese vs Viacheslav Borshchev Pick:
I don’t have a bet on this fight yet, but I’m leaning to bet on the favored fighter, Viacheslav Borshchev.
Marc Diakiese vs Viacheslav Borshchev Prediction:
Viacheslav Borshchev by TKO.
Max Griffin vs Neil Magny Picks & Predictions
Max Griffin vs Neil Magny should be an interesting UFC fight. Neil Magny has 15 wins by decision, 7 wins by TKO, and 3 wins by submission. Magny is mainly a “volume” fighter, and I highly doubt that he will finish Max Griffin. Max Griffin, on the other hand, has 9 wins by TKO. My prediction for this UFC fight on 3/26 is that Griffin will win by TKO.
Max Griffin vs Neil Magny Pick:
I like both Griffin moneyline at +170 odds on Caesars sportsbook, as well as Griffin by TKO.
Max Griffin vs Neil Magny Prediction:
I think Max Griffin will finish Neil Magny. My UFC prediction is that Griffin finishes Magny in the second round.
Jennifer Maia vs Manon Fiorot Picks & Predictions
The final fight of the UFC Preliminary Card on 3/26 is Jennifer Maia vs Manon Fiorot. Fiorot is a large favorite – the best moneyline price on her in this WMMA fight is -340 on FanDuel sportsbook.
Fiorot has only 9 UFC fights under her belt, but she’s 8-1 so far. Maia, on the other hand, is more experienced, but she is 19-8-1 in the UFC. In terms of skill, there is a massive advantage towards Fiorot. Fiorot has 55% striking accuracy and 6 wins by TKO. Maia, on the other hand, has only 37% striking accuracy and 4 wins by TKO.
Jennifer Maia vs Manon Fiorot Pick:
I am not going to bet on this fight. Fiorot clearly has the skill advantage, but I am not willing to bet on a WMMA contender at -340 odds who has only been in 9 UFC fights.