FIFA Women’s World Cup: Tons of Value at Fliff for Saturday Showdown

I often get asked if it’s better to bet games far an advance or wait until closer to when it starts. The answer is, it doesn’t matter. Value in the market is value in the market no matter when it appears.

For this Women’s World Cup bet, the match isn’t until Saturday morning. This bet being days away doesn’t make it better or worse, it just increases the variables between now and kickoff.

It’s possible that over the next four days both goalies could get sick and miss the game, and our bet would look terrible in hindsight when the books adjust. It’s equally possible that a star forward will get injured in practice, and our bet will look great. For now, it looks good and that’s all I care about.

The injuries/news/events that move the lines in sports will even out in the long run in terms of working for me and against me, and I love how I have a head start on the market four days in advance.

Panama vs. Jamaica Pick: Under 0.5 First Half Goals | +200 at Fliff

Before I explain the pick, Fliff is a social sportsbook available in many states where books like DraftKings and FanDuel are not.

If you haven’t signed up for Fliff yet, be sure to do so using code ‘ODDSJAM’ for a $100 deposit match. It’s free money, so you might as well take it!

Anyway, I found this bet on the OddsJam Positive Expected Value tool.

As you can see in the screenshot above from the tool, most books have this line listed far below +200. BetMGM is all the way down at +155, while FanDuel and DraftKings are at +170 and +165 respectively.

This bet is also an arbitrage opportunity with Pinny, which means that you can place bets on both sides (-199 and +200) and guarantee yourself a slight profit.

What I love most about this bet is the fact that odds are ripping lower, and Fliff is just being slow. Every book was up with Fliff around +200 or even higher, but they have all crashed down as the market has moved.

Fliff hasn’t yet, so we picked them off with a stale line.

Not every bet is going to win, but when we have a mathematical advantage through the odds like this then we will profit in the long run.

The Positive EV Tool simply points out value (e.g. large line discrepancies that create these advantages). It is constantly providing bets that will allow you to actually beat the sportsbooks long-term.

As a sharp sports bettor, I am constantly reading into what the markets are telling me and finding the best value. I take that knowledge and find the best possible price for this bet in the form of a line discrepancy.

If you want to try out this sharp betting software for yourself, give our seven-day free trial a go here.