Sharp MLS Bet for Wednesday Night: Back the Total in Minnesota vs. Houston

Most of the sports world’s attention will be on the NBA tonight, but as a profitable sports bettor you don’t want to limit yourself to betting on just a sport or two. There’s value to be had anywhere you look. Tonight, that’s in Major League Soccer.

Minnesota United vs. Houston Dynamo Pick: Under 2.5 | +106 at FanDuel

8:30 p.m. ET

I’m not going to make up some fancy soccer analysis about why this game will stay under…I just know I have insane value on this play. Just look at the screenshot below from the OddsJam Positive Expected Value tool.

FanDuel is the only sportsbook giving us plus odds on this. In fact, every other sportsbook not named DraftKings has the under as the favored outcome. To get a result that should be favored at +106 odds is incredible.

Think about it. Let’s just say for convenience that the over and under are equally likely to hit. In this case, it’s conservative because the under is more likely to hit according to most books. If you bet $100 every time, half the time you will lose $100 but the other half you will win $106. Obviously, there will be hot and cold streaks, but on average that’s a $6 profit after two bets, a $30 profit after 10, and a $300 profit after 100 bets.

In positive EV betting, we’re constantly looking for an edge like this on our bets. That edge adds up the more bets you place and ultimately results in significant profit.

The Positive Expected Value tool is the best way to see all these profitable betting opportunities in one place.

The Positive EV Tool is pretty simple to use – you just hit the betting picks in green & bold. So in the screenshot above, the under 2.5 at +106 on FanDuel is bolded and highlighted in green, suggesting you bet the under at that specific sportsbook.

The Positive EV Tool is just based on data – sportsbook odds…long story short, OddsJam takes the fluff out of sports betting. I have no clue about either of these MLS teams, but that doesn’t matter. It’s all about the data and finding outliers in the market. The under on FanDuel is a huge outlier, so I hammered it.