The buzz surrounding the 2024 presidential election is heating up and the field is starting to narrow.
Featuring a cast of both old and new candidates, the next election cycle promises to be just as competitive as the 2020 cycle.
Whether you think Joe Biden will retain the presidency (assuming he runs for a second term), whether you feel Donald Trump will regain his position as commander-in-chief (despite his recent indictment) or if you feel a new candidate will become the 47th president of the United States, we’re here to help you keep a handle on the odds.
2024 Presidential Election Odds
Joe Biden is the current odds-on favorite to win the 2024 presidential election with Donald Trump close behind. Ron DeSantis rounds out the top three.
While there is still concern within the political sphere on whether Joe Biden will run again — or if he’ll defer to a younger colleague — the reality is that Americans largely favor incumbents running for an additional term over new challengers.
Only 11 former presidents have lost re-election, including Donald Trump — the most likely challenger for 2024 alongside Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
With that in mind and his relatively even (albeit certainly not good) approval rating, Biden may win another term on the back of being the safe, simple choice. He has been a stable force in the odds over the past few months, and there’s a strong feeling from many within the Democratic party that he’s the likely choice, particularly after recent upswells in popularity.
Biden’s odds improved on the heels of the Democrat’s surprisingly very successful midterm results and a solid State of the Union Address. With no real challengers presenting themselves within the party and the general confidence of Biden running again, this bet looks safer every day.
Likely the most divisive name on this list, Donald Trump went from being the odds-on favorite at the release of betting odds to now being the second-most likely pick. Even though he was recently indicted, his odds have improved, putting him back above Ron DeSantis.
There are a lot of factors here — between poor showings from Trump-backed candidates in the midterms to a Republican party that is increasingly tired of his brand of populism, and his continued legal battles and controversy.
With the Biden administration struggling in approval rating polls, the likelihood of an impending recession driven by a still-COVID-stricken climate, a modern-day housing crisis, and the supply chain issues driven by the conflict in Ukraine, the likelihood of Trump returning to the Oval Office seems greater every day — at least according to the oddsmakers.
If the GOP and conservative base within American politics rally behind Trump and determine that’s the more electable candidate between himself and Ron DeSantis, he’ll be a shoo-in for another nomination.
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There has been increasing buzz in recent months that Ron DeSantis, the current governor of Florida, will make a play for the presidency, and the odds support that notion.
In a party that is increasingly being divided between the Trump faithful and “Never Trumpers,” DeSantis represents a candidate who carries much of the same populist message that Trump does, without his level of baggage.
While DeSantis’ running will likely come down to who the GOP determines is a better fit between him and Donald Trump, it’s entirely possible that both men will seek the nomination, and DeSantis’ youth and popularity with the Republican voting populace will carry him past the former president.
And with DeSantis’ odds improving from +550 to +200 in recent months before heading back up to +350, it’s clear that the oddsmakers also feel that he has a shot at securing the Republican nomination, and from there, reaching the presidency.
Let’s be honest with ourselves: the likelihood of Michelle Obama even choosing to run for president is low, much less the likelihood of her winning.
But in a nation that is further and further consumed by big names and celebrity entries into the political sphere, Obama has both wide recognition from her years as First Lady, as well as popular support from a significant subset of the country.
Is she a likely pick? Absolutely not.
Has she been described as the “break glass in case of emergency” option for a Democratic Party struggling to maintain popularity with an increasingly disenfranchised electorate? Very much so.
Keep an eye on the buzz surrounding Michelle Obama, because if she can be convinced to run, she may be a strong challenger.
Though she was unsuccessful at securing the nomination in 2020, Kamala Harris does benefit heavily from being a young, exciting option within the Democratic Party — and one who already has a significant amount of political clout from her time as a U.S. Senator and her current position as the VP.
Many felt that Harris being chosen as the VP on Joe Biden’s ticket was done with assurances that she would be the “next one up” — similar to the assurances given to Hillary Clinton during the Barack Obama years.
If that holds true (and if Biden opts to not run for a second term), Harris may be the top option for the Democratic nominee.
Much like Michelle Obama, there is not a real sense that Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson will be running for president (at least for the 2024 election cycle). But it’s worth noting that, in recent months, he’s leapfrogged Hillary Clinton in the odds, and that he is one of the few global celebrities who may have the social clout to compete for a nomination.
Politics are likely in Johnson’s future, but for the moment, this is a meme pick that is just riding the wave of his popularity — Dwayne Johnson is not a serious political option for 2024.
Biden is a safe choice and one that likely won’t engender a huge amount of excitable buzz.
But in the most politically divisive climate in the United States in recent memory, a safe choice is likely the best choice and one that voters can likely get behind. With his recent gains in popularity, as well as the unexpected success of the Democratic party during the most recent round of midterms and what looks to be an increasingly likely split in the Republican party, Joe Biden is the easy choice for the 2024 presidential election.
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