2024 Presidential Election Odds: Futures Bets to Lock In Now

<p>AP Photos</p>

AP Photos

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Griffin QueenAugust 11, 2022 at 05:06 PM

As we move closer and closer to the next round of primaries, the buzz surrounding the 2024 presidential election is heating up.

Featuring a cast of both old and new candidates, the next election cycle promises to be just as heated as the 2020 cycle.

Whether you think Joe Biden will retain the presidency (assuming he runs for a second term), whether you feel Donald Trump will regain his position as commander-in-chief or if you feel a new candidate will become the 47th president of the United States, we’re here to help you keep a handle on the odds. 

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2024 Presidential Election Odds

Potential CandidatesOdds
Donald Trump+275
Ron DeSantis+300
Joe Biden+600
Kamala Harris+1400
Gavin Newsom+1400
Mike Pence+1800
Nikki Haley +2500
Pete Buttigieg+2500
Michelle Obama+3500
Hillary Clinton+4000
Odds via DraftKings

The Safe Pick: Donald Trump | +275 at DraftKings

What is likely the most divisive name on this list is also the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 presidential election. Donald Trump is currently favored at +275 to win the election even following the recent FBI raid on his Florida estate Mar-A-Lago.

With the Joe Biden administration struggling in current approval rating polls (38% overall, down from 42% just one month ago), and the likelihood of an impending recession driven by a still-COVID stricken climate and modern-day housing crisis, the likelihood of Trump returning to the Oval Office seems greater every day.

If the GOP and conservative base within American politics rally behind Trump, he’ll be a shoo-in for another nomination. 

The New Contender: Ron DeSantis | +300 at DraftKings

There has been increasing buzz in recent months that Ron DeSantis, the current governor of Florida, will make a play for the presidency, and the odds support that notion.

In a party that is increasingly being divided between the Trump faithful and “Never Trumpers,” DeSantis represents a candidate who carries much of the same populist message that Trump does, without his level of baggage.

While DeSantis running will likely come down to who the GOP determines is a better fit between him and Donald Trump, it’s entirely possible that both men will seek the nomination, and DeSantis’ youth and popularity with the Republican voting populace will carry him past the former president.

And with DeSantis’ odds improving from +550 to +300 over the course of about two months, it’s clear that the oddsmakers also feel that he has a very real shot at securing the Republican Nomination, and from there, reaching the presidency.

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The Other Safe Pick: Joe Biden | +600 at DraftKings

While there is still concern within the political sphere on whether Joe Biden will run again — or if he’ll defer to a younger colleague — the reality is that Americans largely favor incumbents running for an additional term over new challengers.

Only 11 former presidents have lost re-election, including Donald Trump — the most likely challenger for 2024.

With that in mind and his relatively even (albeit certainly not good) approval rating, Biden may win another term on the back of being the safe, simple choice. 

The Longshot: Michelle Obama | +3500 at DraftKings

Let’s be honest with ourselves: the likelihood of Michelle Obama even choosing to run for president is low, much less the likelihood of her winning.

But in a nation that is further and further consumed by big names and celebrity entries into the political sphere, Obama has both wide recognition from her years as First Lady, as well as popular support from a significant subset of the country.

Is she a likely pick? Absolutely not.

Has she been described as the “break glass in case of emergency” option for a Democratic Party struggling to maintain popularity with an increasingly disenfranchised electorate? Very much so.

Keep an eye on the buzz surrounding Michelle Obama, because if she can be convinced to run, she may be a strong challenger. 

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The Value Pick: Kamala Harris | +1400 at DraftKings

Though she was unsuccessful at securing the nomination in 2020, Kamala Harris does benefit heavily from being a young, exciting option within the Democratic Party — and one who already has a significant amount of political clout from her time as a U.S. Senator and her current position as the Vice President.

Many felt that Harris being chosen as the Vice President on Joe Biden’s ticket was done with assurances that she would be the “next one up” — similar to the assurances given to Hillary Clinton during the Barack Obama years.

If that holds true (and if Biden opts to not run for a second term), Harris may be the top option for the Democratic nominee. 

2024 Presidential Election Prediction: Joe Biden | +600 at DraftKings

Biden is a safe choice and one that likely won’t engender a huge amount of excitable buzz.

But in the most politically divisive climate in the United States in recent memory, a safe choice is likely the best choice and one that voters can likely get behind. 


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