Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final begins in Denver, as the Colorado Avalanche host the Tampa Bay Lightning. These teams are coming off two very different conference finals series.
Carried by their offense, the Avalanche swept the Oilers in the West. That series had some fireworks and plenty of goals. Colorado scored 22 goals in the four games and is looking to carry that offensive efficiency into the Final.
On the other hand, the Lightning just finished their series with the Rangers in six games. The Lightning dropped the first two games in New York, but finished the series with four straight wins. Tampa’s defense was the star in that series, giving up just 5 goals in their four wins.
As we turn the page to the Stanley Cup Final, the Avalanche enter Game 1 as definitive favorites (-145 game 1 ML, -180 to win the cup).
Colorado has been the leader throughout the whole playoffs in just about every offensive statistic. The Avs will face their toughest task yet in a Lightning team that leads in several defensive categories.
This will be a classic offensive vs. defensive matchup. Let’s break down each team and find a betting edge for Game 1.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning find themselves in the Stanley Cup Final for the third year in a row. The back-to-back defending champions are looking for the NHL’s first three-peat since the Islanders from 1980-83. Defense and timely goal scoring has been Tampa’s strength to get them to the Final.
Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is certainly no stranger to high-pressure games. The 27-year-old already has 98 playoff games under his belt.
Vasilevskiy’s GAA this postseason sits at 2.41, good for best among all goalies with more than four games. However, he’s a bit off pace from last postseason’s ridiculous 1.9 GAA.
The Lightning had a few letdowns this postseason, like the 6-2 Game 1 loss to the Rangers. Vasilevskiy will have to maintain his elite level all series for the Lightning to have a chance.
All eyes will be on Vasilevskiy and the Lightning defense to slow down the Avalanche attack. The Avalanche can score efficiently and in bunches, and the Lightning has not given bettors a reason to be confident that their attack can keep pace with Colorado in high-scoring games.
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche return to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since their 2001 Cup win. Colorado entered the season as the favorites to lift the Cup, and has not disappointed.
The Avs have been the wire-to-wire points leader in the West and continued that hot streak throughout the postseason.
Merciless offense has been the name of the game for Colorado. Scoring a whopping 4.6 goals per game has allowed the Avalanche to outpace and outlast teams without the offensive potency.
With four players in the top 12 of points per game this postseason, the Avalanche have a balanced attack that can’t be stopped by neutralizing one player.
The pressure is certainly on for Colorado. Dethroning the back-to-back champs will be no small task. But, bookmakers seem to think that the Avalanche’s multi-facetted attack will be enough to get past the Lightning stingy defense.
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Lightning vs. Avalanche Game 1 Betting Pick: Under 6 Total Goals | -105 at FanDuel
We’ve talked a lot about the Avalanche offense and Lightning defense. But, one unit we should not overlook is the Avalanche defense.
They’ve been a bit inconsistent this playoffs, recording a handful of clean sheets or 1-goal games, but also have given up 6- and 5-goal games to the Oilers.
However, their 2.86 goals allowed per game is good for fourth this postseason. The Lightning do not have the offensive potency of the Avalanche. Rather, they have relied on timely answers and calculated time of possession.
In Game 1, I’m looking for the Lightning to continue to struggle on offense as they face a very underrated Colorado defense. That, along with the Lightning looking to slow down the efficient Avalanche offense, should lead to a low-scoring opening game.
Lightning vs. Avalanche Game 1 Prediction
Ball Arena will be rocking on Wednesday night for the Avs’ first Stanley Cup Final game in 21 years.
The Avalanche will continue their hot streak on home ice in Game 1. I’m expecting Colorado to get out to an early lead and the Lightning will struggle to keep up with the Avalanche’s pace.
Colorado will secure a 3-1 win over Tampa on Wednesday.