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The best bets and resources to make you more profitable
A fun and very rewarding prop bet to bet throughout the football season is the touchdown prop bet. There is a large assortment of touchdown prop bets to bet, and they are available for every football game every week.
As the name states, a touchdown prop bet is you placing a bet on a certain player to score. If a player you bet on scores a touchdown during the game, you will win your bet. This can feel like a shot in the dark at times, but there are plenty of scenarios where you can ride a player who is on a hot streak or gets into the endzone almost every game. However, there are variations of a touchdown prop bet – based on player position and time of touchdown scored – that you will need to pay attention to before placing your bet.
In most cases, touchdown bets are plus money, and can get very lucrative very fast. Take a look at Super Bowl LVI touchdown scorer odds:
As you can see, all but three bets for touchdown scoring are plus money! For the 2021 season, teams averaged roughly 2.5 touchdowns a game. This gives you roughly 3 shots (per team) to hit a plus money play. You see the players who are the heavy hitters for their teams and get into the endzone most often. A few things to note when looking at this image, there are 3 columns: First Scorer, Last Scorer, and Anytime Scorer. Let’s examine each of these categories.
Anytime Scorer, or Anytime Touchdown bet is betting that a specific player scores a touchdown at any point in the game. This can be a running or receiving touchdown; essentially if they cross the pylon into the endzone with the ball at any point in the game (including overtime) you will win your bet.
First and Last Scorers are a little trickier to predict, as you must be correct in when a player scores a touchdown. You can either bet on the first touchdown scorer of the entire game (for both sides) or bet on the first player to score for their specific teams (at lower odds). You can also bet on the player to score the last touchdown in the game, which is a tough bet that is based mostly on game flow.
You might be wondering, “why can’t I just bet on QBs to throw for touchdowns in the game and almost guarantee myself a win every game?” This is where you need to understand the rules of prop bets. There is a separate category for the number of touchdown passes thrown by each QB. Generally, you see these bets at over/under 1.5 or 2.5, depending on the quarterback and their respective matchup. Rushing touchdowns by the QB do not count towards total passing touchdowns prop bet!
Rushing and receiving touchdown prop bets are the two ways non quarterbacks get into the endzone. Positional players are the most common players you will see when picking your touchdown scorers. Try to focus on the number one redzone options for running backs, and the receivers and tight ends who have good matchups defensively.
For touchdown prop bets, Quarterbacks need to be the one scoring the touchdown themselves, not throwing it or handing it off to someone else. Checking out Super Bowl LVI below, you can see Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford have high odds to score a rushing (or receiving) touchdown. However, if you think one of them may sneak the ball in from the 1-yard line, or catch a touchdown off a trick play (it is the Super Bowl, stranger things have happened!), then these will have some nice payouts if they hit. Similarly, the Defense or Special Teams scoring also have high odds to score. This would cash if there was a defensive score (fumble recovery or interception for a touchdown), or a special teams score (kickoff or punt return for a TD).
As you can infer, most touchdowns are scored when the offensive team is in the redzone. There are many tools online that help you understand which players receive the most targets in the red zone, and that will help you in your analysis when picking touchdown scorers.
Also try to pay attention to matchups and certain players who are riding hot or cold streaks. If you feel like a player has been underachieving and is “due” for a good game or a touchdown, chances are you can get them at a good price to score. On the flipside, if there are players who have a great matchup or are going against a defense or player who bleeds touchdown, lock that bet in. If the odds are not the best, these could also be a great parlay piece, as even the Derrick Henry’s of the world who score almost at will have odds around -200 to score at any time, and close to plus money for first touchdown scorer.
Touchdown props are low risk, high reward bets, so have some fun with it! Nothing beats the feeling of seeing a player you bet on cross the goal line.
Almost every sportsbook offers touchdown prop bets, so make sure you are comparing books to find which lines give you the best odds. There are often promos that give boosts or risk-free plays for touchdown scorers, so be on the lookout for any of those opportunities. Here are some of the sportsbooks I use to check out touchdown scorers in Virginia – take a look to see which books offer touchdown props in your state!