Thursday Night Football NFL Best Bets

Welcome to today’s breakdown of the NFL slate! We’ll dive deep into each matchup, providing insights, suggested bets, and explanations for why these players and teams stand out today.

Whether you’re looking to make smart bets or gather key information, we’ve got you covered.

Cowboys vs. Giants – Thursday Night Football

This NFC East rivalry always delivers intense games. Both teams are looking to establish momentum, but key differences in performance and weaknesses offer strong betting opportunities.

Suggested Bet: Cowboys -5.5

• Key Insight: Dallas has dominated the Giants recently, going 9-1 straight up and 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 meetings.
• Why: The Cowboys’ third-down conversion rate is a standout here, ranked in the top 10. The Giants’ defense, particularly on third downs, ranks in the bottom third, making it tough for them to get off the field. This advantage gives Dallas the edge to cover the spread.
• Bonus Stat: The Cowboys’ defense has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game this season, meaning Daniel Jones will have limited success through the air, forcing the Giants to rely heavily on the run.

Suggested Bet: Over 45 Total Points

• Key Insight: The Cowboys play at the fastest pace in the NFL in terms of seconds per snap, and the Giants’ defense has struggled to contain explosive plays.
• Why: Both teams struggle to stop the run, and with the Cowboys passing 68% of the time, this game will feature a lot of opportunities for scoring. Dallas has hit the over in every game so far this season, and the Giants will need to play catch-up, increasing the chance of a high-scoring affair.
• Bonus Stat: When Dak Prescott and Daniel Jones face off, the over has hit in 5 out of 6 matchups, making this bet even more attractive.

Player Prop Bets

Now, let’s move on to player prop bets. These bets focus on players who are positioned to exploit matchups and deliver big performances.

Bet: Devin Singletary Over 14.5 Longest Rush

• Key Insight: The Cowboys have allowed the most rushing yards per game in the NFL, making Singletary a prime candidate to break off a big run.
• Why: Singletary has shown his ability to break long runs, and with the Cowboys’ struggling run defense, this bet doesn’t require much volume—just one breakaway. Singletary has hit this number in two of his last three games.
• Bonus Stat: Running backs have consistently torn up Dallas’ run defense this season, with big performances from Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara, both of whom surpassed this prop line easily.

Bet: Rico Dowdle Over 2.5 Receptions (+148)

• Key Insight: Dowdle has out-snapped Ezekiel Elliott in recent games, and Dallas’ high pass rate means more opportunities for him to catch passes out of the backfield.
• Why: Dowdle’s recent increase in playing time has translated into five targets last week. With the Giants struggling to cover running backs in the passing game and Dallas’ high pass rate, Dowdle catching three balls at +148 is a great value bet.
• Bonus Stat: The Giants rank among the top teams in QB pressures, meaning Dak Prescott will likely look for quick, check-down passes to Dowdle.

Final Thoughts

The Cowboys come into this matchup with strong historical dominance over the Giants, and their ability to convert third downs gives them the upper hand.

While the Giants may be able to exploit the Cowboys’ weakness against the run, it likely won’t be enough to cover the spread.

Both the Cowboys’ fast pace and weak defenses in the run game make the over 45 points a solid play.

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