Sharp NFL Picks for Thursday Night Football: Breaking Down Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams Week 1 Showdown

Thursday Night Football is nearly upon us! For Week 1’s TNF showdown, the Buffalo Bills will be taking on the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium.

We have three picks for this matchup — here are the sharp bets from OddsJam to lock in now!

Bills vs. Rams Thursday Night Football Sharp Picks

Thursday, Sept. 8 | 8:20 p.m. ET

Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown | -140 at FanDuel

The NFL’s reigning Super Bowl MVP, Offensive Player of the Year and triple receiving crown (league leader in yards, receptions and touchdowns) was no stranger to scoring touchdowns last season.

Cooper Kupp totaled 16 touchdowns last season, nearly averaging 1 per game. His presence in Sean McVay’s West Coast offense is the focal point of an elite passing attack. McVay and company do everything in their power to get the ball in Kupp’s hands, particularly in the red zone.

Last season, Kupp was targeted a whopping 191 times. His presence in the slot is incredibly beneficial for touchdown opportunities because of the mismatches it can create for opposing defenses. If an opposing team’s best corner cannot play in the slot, Kupp will cook the second or third option.

With the departure (for now) of Odell Beckham Jr., he figures to receive just as many opportunities this season. FanDuel currently has the best odds for this prop at -140, which is certainly worth it given Kupp’s absurd amount of scoring chances.

Josh Allen Under 272.5 Passing Yards | -115 at DraftKings

Josh Allen’s previous two seasons have been nothing short of sensational, as he’s played his way into a top-five quarterback in the league. Statistically, his last two seasons have been nearly identical with roughly 4,500 passing yards and 35+ passing touchdowns.

The Bills lost offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to the New York Giants, who was the architect of the elite passing scheme. They opted to promote an in-house candidate in Ken Dorsey, who was previously the quarterbacks coach. It isn’t unreasonable to assume the offense may take a few games to get adjusted to the loss of Daboll.

Similarly, the Tennessee Titans lost offensive coordinator Arthur Smith last season to a head coaching vacancy. They came out flat against the Arizona Cardinals in a blowout Week 1 home loss to start the season.

The Bills ranked 15th in the league in pass play percentage. Couple the middle-of-the-pack passing percentage with an elite Rams defense, and the under is the play here. I expect this to be a low-scoring affair with plenty of running the football for both sides.

Bills Moneyline | -132 at FanDuel

The Bills come into this game as the betting favorites to win it all in Arizona this February. They’re favored in this matchup, despite the Rams being the defending Super Bowl champs at home.

Buffalo features arguably the most complete roster in the NFL, headlined by superstars Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier’s defense has been dependable the last few seasons and he himself is considered one of the best play-callers in the league.

This pick isn’t so much about the Bills’ elite talent, but rather the heavy losses sustained by the Rams. Prior to the midseason acquisitions of superstars Von Miller (who now plays for the Bills) and Odell Beckham Jr., the Rams were a good, not great team. It’s very evident the Rams would not have won the Super Bowl without those two.

Both of those players are now gone, coupled with the retirement of longtime All-Pro left tackle Andrew Whitworth. Three heavy losses at premium positions make betting against the defending champs the smart play here.

Take this year’s Super Bowl favorites over last year’s winners.