NFL Preview Week 3

We’re deep into the NFL season now, and Week 3 brings some exciting matchups. This slate looks promising with several competitive games, some high-scoring potential, and a few defensive battles that could impact betting decisions and DFS lineups.

In this article, we’re diving into the key insights for each game, focusing on what to expect and how game flow and matchups may shape this week’s outcomes. We’re holding off on specific player picks for now, as that’ll come later in the week. But for now, let’s take a broad look at what Week 3 has to offer.

1. New England Patriots at New York Jets

• Spread: Jets -6.5
• Total: 37.5
• Game Time: Thursday, 8:15 PM ET

Key Insights:

• Jets’ Pressure Defense: New York’s defensive line is bringing intense pressure, with a 38.8% pressure rate. New England’s offensive line, allowing pressure at a 33.5% rate, is going to struggle here. The Jets are in a great spot to force turnovers or sacks.
• Patriots’ Offensive Struggles: New England ranks poorly in both passing and rushing efficiency. Their offense has a tough matchup against a Jets defense that’s top 10 in both categories.
• Jets’ Offense: The Jets haven’t exactly been lighting it up on offense, but they’ll have some opportunities against a middle-of-the-pack Patriots defense.

Game Flow: Expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out game with the Jets controlling the tempo. The total of 37.5 suggests points will be hard to come by.

2. New York Giants at Cleveland Browns

• Spread: Browns -6.0
• Total: 38.5
• Game Time: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Key Insights:

• Browns’ Pressure Defense: The Browns’ 39.7% pressure rate is the highest on the slate, and with the Giants’ offensive line allowing pressure 34.5% of the time, expect Cleveland to dominate the line of scrimmage.
• Giants’ Offensive Woes: New York has struggled on offense all season, ranking near the bottom in rushing and passing efficiency. Cleveland’s defense should have a field day.
• Browns’ Offense: Cleveland’s offense isn’t great, but against a weak Giants defense, they should be able to move the ball enough to cover the spread.

Game Flow: This game projects as a defensive battle. With a low total of 38.5, don’t expect a lot of fireworks. The Browns’ defense is the key player in this one.

3. Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts

• Spread: Colts -1.5
• Total: 42.5
• Game Time: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Key Insights:

• Bears’ Offensive Flashes: The Bears have had moments of brilliance, but their offensive line allows too much pressure (34.2%), which could give the Colts defense an edge.
• Colts’ Balanced Attack: Indianapolis has been solid in both the run and the pass, ranking 5th in rushing EPA and 6th in passing EPA. They should be able to move the ball effectively against a mediocre Bears defense.
• Defensive Matchups: Both teams are middle-of-the-pack defensively, but the Colts’ ability to generate pressure could disrupt the Bears’ offense.

Game Flow: This should be one of the more competitive matchups of the week, with the Colts slightly favored. Look for a balanced attack from Indianapolis and a close game overall.

4. Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings

• Spread: Texans -2.5
• Total: 45.5
• Game Time: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Key Insights:

• Texans’ Efficient Offense: Houston ranks 4th in passing EPA and 11th in rushing EPA. Minnesota’s defense is weak across the board, so the Texans should have success moving the ball.
• Vikings’ Defensive Struggles: Minnesota has been porous on defense, ranking 26th in pass DVOA and 23rd in rushing DVOA. This could turn into a shootout if they can’t tighten up.
• Vikings’ Offense: Minnesota’s passing game has been solid, but they may struggle to establish the run against a Texans defense that ranks 8th against the run.

Game Flow: Expect a competitive game with both offenses moving the ball well. The total of 45.5 suggests we could see a higher-scoring affair, making this an intriguing DFS target.

5. Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

• Spread: Saints -1.5
• Total: 49.5
• Game Time: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Key Insights:

• Saints’ Offensive Potential: New Orleans’ offense has been inefficient but should be able to find some success against an Eagles defense ranked 17th against the pass.
• Eagles’ Explosive Offense: Philadelphia ranks 2nd in both passing and rushing EPA, making them a threat to exploit a Saints defense that struggles against the pass.
• Defensive Weaknesses: Both teams have vulnerabilities on defense, especially New Orleans against the pass, which could turn this into a shootout.

Game Flow: This is shaping up to be one of the highest-scoring games on the slate, with a total of 49.5. Expect a back-and-forth affair, with both offenses having opportunities to shine.

6. Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

• Spread: Steelers -2.0
• Total: 35.5
• Game Time: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Key Insights:

• Steelers’ Dominant Defense: Pittsburgh ranks 1st in both passing and rushing EPA, making this a tough matchup for the Chargers’ offense.
• Chargers’ Offensive Struggles: Despite ranking 3rd in passing EPA, the Chargers’ offensive line has been a weak point, allowing a high pressure rate. Pittsburgh should feast on this matchup.
• Steelers’ Efficiency: Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 1st in both passing and rushing EPA, so while their defense should dominate, their offense should do enough to control the game.

Game Flow: This projects as a defensive battle with a low total of 35.5. The Steelers’ defense is the star here, and the game should be a grind-it-out affair with few offensive highlights.

7. Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Spread: Buccaneers -7.0
• Total: 39.5
• Game Time: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Key Insights:

• Broncos’ Offensive Struggles: Denver’s offense is a mess, ranking 27th in rushing EPA and 15th in passing EPA. They face a Tampa Bay defense that excels at stopping the run (8th in RB DVP) and generating pressure (35.5% pressure rate). Denver’s offensive line, allowing a league-worst 42.5% pressure rate, could struggle to give their QB time.
• Buccaneers’ Defensive Strength: Tampa Bay’s defense has been solid across the board, especially against the pass (13th in QB DVP). Expect them to stifle Denver’s offense, leading to possible sacks and turnovers.
• Buccaneers’ Offense: Tampa Bay’s offense isn’t lighting up the scoreboard, but Denver’s defense has been poor, ranking 31st in run DVOA. Tampa Bay should lean on their running game to control the tempo.

Game Flow: This game is shaping up to be a slow-paced, defensive battle, with the Buccaneers controlling the game. Denver’s offensive line issues make it hard to see them keeping pace, and Tampa Bay should lean on the run game to seal the deal.

8. Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans

• Spread: Titans -2.5
• Total: 36.5
• Game Time: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Key Insights:

• Packers’ Defensive Strength: Green Bay’s defense has been solid, especially against the run, ranking 2nd in RB DVP. Tennessee’s offense relies heavily on the run, ranking 7th in rushing EPA, but they’ll have a hard time establishing the ground game against Green Bay’s stout front.
• Titans’ Offensive Struggles: Tennessee’s passing game hasn’t been great, and the Packers’ pass defense ranks 9th in passing EPA allowed. This matchup could limit Tennessee’s ability to move the ball consistently.
• Defensive Battle: Both teams prefer to run the ball and control the clock, which makes this game feel like a grind-it-out affair. Neither team has a high implied total, and both defenses should dominate.

Game Flow: This game should be a defensive slugfest, with both teams running the ball to control the clock. The low total of 36.5 points reflects the expected slow pace and limited scoring opportunities.

9. Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders

• Spread: Raiders -7.0
• Total: 38.0
• Game Time: Sunday, 4:05 PM ET

Key Insights:

• Panthers’ Offensive Woes: Carolina’s offense has been ineffective, ranking 22nd in rushing EPA and 13th in passing EPA. They’ll face a Raiders defense that’s strong against the pass (11th in QB DVP) but weak against the run (30th in RB DVP). Carolina’s only path to success could be on the ground.
• Raiders’ Offense: Las Vegas has a favorable matchup against Carolina’s defense, which ranks 25th in QB DVP. While the Raiders’ offense ranks 28th overall in EPA, they should be able to exploit Carolina’s defensive weaknesses, especially through the air.
• Game Script: The Raiders are heavy favorites, and they’re expected to control the game from the start. The Panthers’ low implied team total of 15.5 points reflects their struggles to put up points this season.

Game Flow: The Raiders should control the game, with a steady dose of running plays to close things out. Carolina’s offense isn’t expected to do much, making this game less attractive for DFS offensive plays, but the Raiders’ defense could be a strong option.

10. Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks

• Spread: Seahawks -5.5
• Total: 41.5
• Game Time: Sunday, 4:05 PM ET

Key Insights:

• Seahawks’ Offensive Edge: Seattle ranks 3rd in passing EPA and 6th in rushing EPA, making them one of the more balanced offenses in the league. Miami’s defense is vulnerable against the pass, ranking 27th in passing EPA allowed, which could lead to a big day for Seattle’s air attack.
• Dolphins’ Struggles: Miami has been solid in passing (7th in passing EPA) but lacks balance, ranking 20th in rushing EPA. They’ll face a Seattle defense that excels against the pass but struggles against the run, meaning Miami may have a tough time moving the ball through the air.
• Game Flow: Seattle should control this game with their balanced offense, while Miami could be forced into passing situations, which plays into Seattle’s defensive strengths.

Game Flow: Expect Seattle to control the tempo, with their passing game taking advantage of Miami’s weak secondary. Miami may struggle to keep pace, leading to a one-sided affair.

11. Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

• Spread: Lions -3.0
• Total: 52.5
• Game Time: Sunday, 4:25 PM ET

Key Insights:

• Lions’ Explosive Offense: Detroit ranks 17th in passing EPA and 13th in rushing EPA, but they’re facing an Arizona defense that ranks 24th in pass defense and 31st in run defense. Detroit should have no problem moving the ball and scoring points.
• Cardinals’ Defensive Weaknesses: Arizona’s defense has been one of the worst in the league, allowing big plays in both the run and pass game. Detroit’s wide receivers should have plenty of opportunities against a secondary that ranks 31st in WR DVP.
• Cardinals’ Offense: Arizona’s offense hasn’t been great, but they’ll face a Detroit defense that’s ranked 30th in run defense, giving them a chance to stay competitive.

Game Flow: This game should be one of the highest-scoring matchups of the week. Both offenses should move the ball well, and Detroit’s high implied team total of 27.8 points makes them a strong DFS target.

12. Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys

• Spread: Ravens -1.0
• Total: 48.5
• Game Time: Sunday, 4:25 PM ET

Key Insights:

• Ravens’ Ground Attack: Baltimore ranks 32nd in rushing EPA and will face a Cowboys defense that ranks dead last in RB DVP. This is a huge mismatch, and Baltimore should control the game on the ground.
• Cowboys’ Offensive Firepower: Dallas ranks 4th in passing EPA and should find success against a Ravens defense that’s weaker against the pass (23rd in QB DVP). This could turn into a back-and-forth shootout if Dallas can exploit Baltimore’s secondary.
• Mismatch in the Trenches: Baltimore’s stout rushing attack vs. Dallas’ weak run defense is the key to this game. If the Ravens can control the tempo, it’ll be tough for Dallas to keep pace.

Game Flow: This game has the potential to turn into a shootout, but Baltimore’s run game should be the key. Expect the Ravens to lean heavily on the ground game, while Dallas tries to keep pace through the air.

13. San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

• Spread: 49ers -7.5
• Total: 43.5
• Game Time: Sunday, 4:25 PM ET

Key Insights:

• 49ers’ Rushing Attack: San Francisco’s ground game ranks 30th in rushing EPA and faces a Rams defense that’s weak against the run (29th in rushing DVOA). The 49ers should dominate with their run-heavy game plan.
• Rams’ Offensive Struggles: Los Angeles ranks 21st in passing EPA and will face a tough 49ers defense that excels against both the pass and run. The Rams’ implied team total of 18 points reflects their expected struggles.
• Game Script: San Francisco should control the game with their ground game and defense. Expect them to lean on their rushing attack and dominate time of possession.

Game Flow: This game sets up as a one-sided affair, with the 49ers controlling the tempo from start to finish. The Rams are unlikely to keep up, and San Francisco’s defense should be a key factor.

14. Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

• Spread: Chiefs -4.5
• Total: 46.5
• Game Time: Sunday, 8:20 PM ET

Key Insights:

• Chiefs’ Offensive Power: Kansas City’s passing game should feast on an Atlanta defense that ranks 31st in QB DVOA and 32nd in TE DVP. The Chiefs’ implied team total of 25.5 points signals plenty of scoring potential.
• Falcons’ Defensive Struggles: Atlanta has one of the worst defenses in the league, allowing big plays in the passing game. This is a great spot for Kansas City’s air attack.
• Falcons’ Offense: Atlanta’s offense is respectable, but they’ll be forced into a pass-heavy game script, trying to keep pace with the Chiefs. Kansas City’s defense is solid but exploitable, especially in the secondary.

Game Flow: This game has solid shootout potential, with Kansas City expected to control the game. Atlanta will be forced to pass often, making this a prime DFS stacking opportunity.

15. Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills

• Spread: Bills -5.5
• Total: 46.0
• Game Time: Monday, 7:30 PM ET

Key Insights:

• Bills’ Balanced Attack: Buffalo’s offense is efficient and should be able to control this game, especially against a Jaguars defense that struggles against the run (28th in RB DVOA).
• Jaguars’ Defensive Struggles: Jacksonville’s defense has been weak against the run, and Buffalo’s implied team total of 25.8 points suggests they’ll exploit this matchup with a ground-heavy approach.
• Jaguars’ Offense: Jacksonville’s offense ranks 7th in passing EPA, but they’ll face a solid Buffalo defense that should limit their scoring opportunities.

Game Flow: Buffalo is expected to control this game with their balanced attack, leaning on the run to grind out a win. Jacksonville could struggle to keep up, making this a lower-scoring affair overall.

16. Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals

• Spread: Bengals -8.0
• Total: 48.5
• Game Time: Monday, 8:15 PM ET

Key Insights:

• Bengals’ Offensive Firepower: Cincinnati has the highest implied team total on the slate at 28.3 points. They’ll face a Commanders defense that has struggled to contain opposing offenses, especially against the pass.
• Commanders’ Offensive Struggles: Washington’s offense has been inconsistent, and they’ll face a Bengals defense that’s solid against the pass. Cincinnati’s defense could generate pressure and disrupt Washington’s game plan.
• Game Script: Cincinnati should control this game from start to finish, with Washington forced into a pass-heavy game script as they play from behind.

Game Flow: Expect Cincinnati to dominate offensively, making this game a great DFS target, especially for Bengals’ passing stacks. Washington may struggle to keep up, making their offense less appealing.

That wraps up the full breakdown for Week 3! This slate offers a wide variety of matchups, from defensive battles to potential shootouts. Keep an eye on game flow and team matchups as you build your DFS lineups, and stay tuned for our top player picks later in the week.