NFL Best Bets Week 3 Monday Night Football Jaguars at Bills

Monday Night Football is back, and today we’re looking at the Jacksonville Jaguars facing the Buffalo Bills. This game offers some fantastic betting opportunities, from spreads to player props.

I’m going to break down key matchups and explain why each player is a strong bet for tonight’s game. Let’s dive into the analysis, with suggested bets clearly listed and explained to help you make informed decisions.

1. Bills -5 vs. Jaguars

• Suggested Bet: Bills -5
• Analysis:
  • The Bills are coming into this game after an impressive 31-10 win over the Dolphins. They’ve shown their dominance on both sides of the ball, especially on defense. Buffalo’s defense ranks in the top 10 in rushing defense DVOA, which is critical as Jacksonville heavily relies on Travis Etienne.
  • The Jaguars’ pass defense has struggled, ranking 21st in DVOA. Josh Allen should be able to exploit this weakness, moving the ball through the air and keeping the Jaguars on their heels.
  • Key Insight: With Buffalo’s ability to control both the passing and rushing game, they should cover the 5-point spread comfortably. Jacksonville’s struggles in both run and pass defense make them a tough bet to keep this close.

2. Under 45.5 Total Points

• Suggested Bet: Under 45.5 Total Points
• Analysis:
  • This matchup sets up for a slower-paced game. Both Buffalo and Jacksonville rank near the bottom in offensive plays per game, and the Bills tend to run the ball more when they have a lead.
  • Buffalo’s defense has been stifling, allowing just 28 points across the first two games. If the Bills control the tempo and the Jaguars struggle to move the ball, expect a low-scoring affair.
  • Key Insight: Buffalo’s defense should limit Jacksonville’s scoring chances, and the Bills could opt for a more conservative game plan once they build a lead, making the under 45.5 a solid bet.

3. Travis Etienne Jr. Over 22.5 Receiving Yards

• Suggested Bet: Over 22.5 Receiving Yards
• Analysis:
  • While the Bills have been stout against the run, they’ve allowed running backs to gain yardage through the air. Buffalo ranks in the bottom half of the league in defending running backs in the passing game, allowing the second-most receiving yards to RBs.
  • Etienne is Jacksonville’s most dynamic offensive player, and they’ll likely lean on him to break Buffalo’s defense by utilizing him in the passing game. He’s hit this line in 11 of 17 games last season.
  • Key Insight: Etienne should see increased targets out of the backfield, especially if Jacksonville is playing from behind. Look for him to hit the over on receiving yards.

4. James Cook Anytime TD (+135)

• Suggested Bet: James Cook Anytime TD
• Analysis:
  • James Cook has been Buffalo’s go-to running back, and his red-zone opportunities continue to rise. He’s seen a 36% red zone rush share, tied with Josh Allen, and has been effective in short-yardage situations.
  • Jacksonville has allowed decent rushing performances, and with the Bills favored to lead throughout this game, Cook should get multiple goal-line opportunities to score.
  • Key Insight: Cook’s versatility as both a rusher and a pass-catcher makes him a strong candidate to score. His increasing red zone work makes the +135 odds great value.

5. Khalil Shakir Over 43.5 Receiving Yards

• Suggested Bet: Over 43.5 Receiving Yards
• Analysis:
  • Shakir is becoming a reliable option in Buffalo’s passing attack. With Jacksonville’s secondary ranked 31st in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers, Shakir has a favorable matchup to exceed his 43.5-yard line.
  • In his previous game against Jacksonville, Shakir had 3 catches on 3 targets and just missed hitting this mark. With more opportunities coming his way, he’s in a prime spot to have a breakout performance.
  • Key Insight: With the Jaguars struggling against wide receivers, Shakir could have a strong game, making the over on his receiving yards a great bet.

Recap of Best Bets:

• Bills -5: Buffalo’s defense and passing game should carry them to a comfortable win.
• Under 45.5 Points: Expect a low-scoring game, with Buffalo controlling the tempo and Jacksonville struggling to score.
• Travis Etienne Over 22.5 Receiving Yards: Etienne should see plenty of action in the passing game, as Buffalo defends the run well but struggles to contain pass-catching backs.
• James Cook Anytime TD: Cook’s red zone usage makes him a great bet to score in this game.
• Khalil Shakir Over 43.5 Receiving Yards: Shakir is poised for a strong outing against Jacksonville’s weak secondary.

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