NFL Best Bets Week 3

We’re diving into Week 3 of the NFL season, and I’ve got some exciting bets lined up for you based on matchups, recent form, and the key insights I’ve shared previously. These aren’t just picks but leans backed by analysis to give you an edge on this week’s slate. Let’s jump in!

1. Ramondre Stevenson – Over 67.5 Rushing Yards

• LEAN: Over 67.5 rushing yards
• Analysis: The Patriots have leaned heavily on Stevenson to carry the load in the run game, and this week he faces a Jets defense that has struggled to stop the run. With key defensive pieces missing, the Jets’ run-stopping ability is weaker than last season, and Stevenson has hit this rushing total in 5 of his last 7 games, including a strong start to 2024. Expect the Pats to keep it on the ground, especially given their O-line’s surprising form.

Key Insight:

• Jets’ run defense struggled against Jordan Mason and Tony Pollard.
• Patriots’ game plan revolves around keeping it on the ground to control the tempo.

2. Stefon Diggs – Over 46.5 Receiving Yards

• LEAN: Over 46.5 receiving yards
• Analysis: Diggs returns to Minnesota in what some might call a “nostalgia game,” and I’m banking on him showing out. Despite not hitting this line yet in 2024, he’s been consistently targeted by CJ Stroud. The Vikings have allowed the 7th most receiving yards to wide receivers this year, making this a prime spot for Diggs to break out. If Stroud can connect with him a few times, this lean should cash.

Key Insight:

• Minnesota’s secondary has struggled against big-play wideouts.
• Diggs still has elite route-running ability and can hit this number with just 4-5 receptions.

3. Rashid Shaheed – Anytime Touchdown (+170)

• LEAN: Shaheed Anytime TD
• Analysis: The Saints’ passing game has been intriguing, and Shaheed’s been one of Derek Carr’s favorite targets in the early season. He’s already found the end zone twice this year, and now faces an Eagles defense that’s been vulnerable to slot receivers, having given up the second-most touchdowns to wide receivers so far. Shaheed’s speed makes him a consistent red-zone threat, and the Saints should continue to look his way.

Key Insight:

• Eagles’ secondary is vulnerable, especially to slot receivers like Shaheed.
• Plus-money at +170 is great value for a guy who’s already scored twice this season.

4. Lamar Jackson – Over 0.5 Interceptions (-115)

• LEAN: Over 0.5 interceptions
• Analysis: Lamar has been excellent at limiting mistakes, but this week he faces the aggressive Cowboys defense, which has already forced three interceptions this season. With pressure coming from Micah Parsons and the Cowboys secondary lurking for opportunities, Lamar may have to force a couple of throws. That’s exactly where this Dallas defense can capitalize and snag an interception.

Key Insight:

• Cowboys’ defense thrives on forcing turnovers and applying pressure.
• Lamar threw a pick last week, and the Cowboys’ pass rush will challenge him again.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Over 23.5 Points (-105)

• LEAN: Buccaneers team total over 23.5
• Analysis: Baker Mayfield and the Bucs have looked good through two games, and I expect them to keep that momentum going against the Broncos. While Denver’s defense allowed just 13 points last week, their offensive inefficiencies mean Tampa Bay will have plenty of chances to score. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin creating mismatches, look for the Bucs to put up points, especially with the extra possessions they’ll likely get from Denver turnovers.

Key Insight:

• The Broncos’ offense has been turnover-prone, giving up opportunities to opposing teams.
• Baker Mayfield has been effective in moving the ball, and 24 points seems very attainable.

Call to Action

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Good luck with your bets this week, and let’s cash in!