NFL Best Bets Today – Sunday, Sept. 17

Looking for the best NFL bets for the day? OddsJam’s NFL betting experts have you covered with the best bets in Week One of the NFL season!

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: Trevor Lawrence  Over 3.5 Rushing Attempts | -145 on Fliff

Sunday, September 17 | 1:00 p.m. ET

Opening week in the NFL did not disappoint. We saw exciting games, surprising results, and, unfortunately, devastating injuries that will affect the teams throughout the season. This week, we look to Jacksonville, Florida, in what is expected to be a Chiefs victory after their shocking defeat last Thursday night in front of a home crowd to the Detroit Lions (of all teams). That doesn’t mean we don’t see value in this game in other ways, though. Let’s take a look at Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence. A QB as capable of using his legs as Lawrence should always be considered in the rushing props department and we’re doing exactly that.

Using the OddsJam Positive Expected Value tool, we looked for Trevor Lawrence rushing props to see if we came across any books that were asleep at the office. We found what we were looking for. Trevor Lawrence Over 3.5 Rushing Attempts. While all books across the board have this wager as one they expect to cash – judging by the lines, there is quite a bit of variety in the line depending on where you choose to lock it in at. The best line available at the time of writing is at Fliff (-145) while the worst on the board belongs to DraftKings who are offering us this same wager at a ridiculous -166. We’re receiving over 20 cents of value simply by shopping around and it’s impossible to turn our heads. We’re locking it in. Let’s dig into this bet a bit more below.

Over the course of the 2022 season, we saw vast improvements in Lawrence’s game in comparison to the 2021 campaign. He became a much more complete QB and what we all sort of expected from him when originally drafted by the Jaguars. In 2022, Lawrence rushed 62 times from the pocket which may not seem like much — it isn’t, but he surpassed the key number of rushing attempts eight times (47% of the time) and did so four times at games played at home (50%). None of this seems impressive — we get it.

We’re looking at two things that stick out in our minds, though. First, Week 10 of the 2022 season versus the Kansas City Chiefs where Lawrence rushed four times for 26 yards. In his first start of the 2023 season, Lawrence rushed seven times against the Indianapolis Colts for 21 yards for an average of three yards per carry. We love the fact Lawrence has seen a bump in rushing attempts at home, has covered this number versus KC last season, and did so in Week One of the 2023 season. We’re expecting a big game from T-Law this afternoon and believe his legs will play a key role in achieving that.