NFL Best Bets TNF Patriots at Jets Week 3

As we gear up for another action-packed NFL slate, I’m here to break down the best bets you should consider for today. We’re going beyond just the lines and diving into why these matchups make sense.

I’ve pulled together some key insights on the players and teams, giving you all the context you need to make informed decisions. Whether you’re targeting player props or looking for the best spread, let’s get into it!

1. Aaron Rodgers – Over 20.5 Pass Completions

• Suggested Bet: Over 20.5 Pass Completions (+102)
• Analysis: Rodgers is facing a Patriots defense that ranks 6th worst in completion percentage allowed to opposing quarterbacks. He’s surpassed this line in both games so far, including a 21-completion performance against a tough Bengals defense. The Jets’ offense has been progressively improving, and I expect Rodgers to air it out against a defense that’s been vulnerable, particularly in short-to-mid-range passes.
• Key Insight: Patriots’ defense is allowing a 74% completion rate, and with the Jets likely controlling the game, Rodgers should hit 21+ completions comfortably.

2. Breece Hall – Over 29.5 Receiving Yards

• Suggested Bet: Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
• Analysis: Hall has been a reliable check-down option for Rodgers, with 6 and 8 targets in the last two games. The Patriots have been susceptible to running backs in the passing game, allowing the 25th most receiving yards to the position. Hall’s ability to pick up yardage after the catch makes him a strong bet to go over this line. With Rodgers likely relying on quick passes, Hall should be heavily involved.
• Key Insight: Hall has exceeded this receiving yardage line in both of his games this season, posting 39 and 52 yards, respectively. His involvement in the passing game is a major factor here.

3. Allen Lazard – Over 2.5 Receptions

• Suggested Bet: Over 2.5 Receptions (-120)
• Analysis: The Patriots have struggled against secondary receivers this season, and Lazard, playing in the No. 2 role, is poised to take advantage. New England has allowed the most receptions to wide receivers so far, and Lazard’s involvement (9 targets in Week 1) suggests he’ll be a reliable target for Rodgers. The Patriots’ defense will focus on shutting down Garrett Wilson, leaving Lazard opportunities to contribute.
• Key Insight: Lazard is catching at a 60% rate, and with a solid target share, he should easily secure 3+ receptions, especially against a defense that struggles with WR2s.

4. Jets -6.5 Spread

• Suggested Bet: Jets -6.5
• Analysis: While the Patriots have played solid football, they’ve likely hit their ceiling, whereas the Jets are still finding their rhythm under Rodgers. With a better all-around roster and a defense that’s stronger on paper than it has shown, the Jets should cover the 6.5-point spread. New England has been shaky, and Aaron Rodgers in prime time is always a threat.
• Key Insight: The Jets’ ceiling is significantly higher than the Patriots’, and with Rodgers leading the charge, they should cover the spread with relative ease.

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