NFL Predictions Today in Week 4: Target the Total for Bills vs. Ravens Early Sunday Showdown

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Matt ModiSeptember 30, 2022 at 05:20 AM

OddsJam’s football expert breaks down his top NFL predictions for each day of NFL action! Find the top NFL picks and predictions today below.

Early Sunday Slate Betting Pick

Bills vs. Ravens Betting Pick: Over 51 | -107 at PointsBet

Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. ET

I was all in on the Bills game going over last week and was burned after 28 first-half points, but I am going back to the well and once again betting on a Bills game to go over.

This is the battle between the best offense in the NFL (Ravens) and the sixth-best offense (Bills), according to DVOA. The Ravens also have the best passing offense specifically in the NFL, while the Bills are fifth. The Ravens defense has been dreadful, giving up 42 points to the Dolphins two weeks ago, and another 26 to a bad Patriots offense last week.

The Bills defense is very good, but they are incredibly banged up. They are now missing both of their starting safeties, and three of their top cornerbacks as well. Against this Ravens passing attack, that is going to cause trouble.

So, there should be no shortage of points scored in this one.

Moneyline

Late Sunday Slate Betting Pick

Patriots vs. Packers Betting Pick: Packers Team Total Under 24.5 | +100 at WynnBET

Sunday, Oct. 2 | 4:25 p.m. ET

I am still not quite buying this Packers offense. In three games this year, they have only gone over this total one time. Last week, admittedly against a great Bucs defense, they only scored 14 points.

It feels weird saying this about an Aaron Rodgers-led offense, but the Packers win on offense with their running game at this point. They still have some issues at receiver, although it looks like Romeo Doubs is ready to take a leap.

In general, I expect this to be a lower-scoring game where the Patriots offense isn’t able to do much, and the Packers continually bleed the clock running the ball. There wasn’t any value on the full game total, but I did like this Packers under.

Moneyline

Sunday Night Football Betting Pick

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Betting Pick: 1st Half Under 23.5 | -125 at FanDuel

Sunday, Oct. 2 | 8:20 p.m. ET

Admittedly I have to pay extra juice for this one, but I love this play.

Here are the totals the Bucs have put up in the first half of their three games so far: 12, 0 and 3. That is a total of 15 points in three games, for an average of 5 points per game. That’s bad!

The Chiefs defense isn’t the plus matchup it used to be, either, as they have become pretty good on defense, at least so far. They are currently ninth in defensive DVOA.

With that said, the Bucs have the literal best defense in the NFL, so I am not expecting the Chiefs to have an offensive explosion. It is unfortunate to have another primetime game that figures to be lower-scoring, but the under, especially in the first half, is the play here.

Moneyline

Thursday Night Football Betting Pick

Dolphins vs. Bengals Betting Pick: Bengals -3.5 | -120 at FanDuel

Thursday, Sept. 29 | 8:15 p.m. ET

We are keeping this one simple and riding with the Bengals here. While I am still not fully convinced that their offense is “back” after putting up 27 points last week against the Jets, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bengals handle this one with ease.

For those of you who are unaware, the Dolphins defense specifically is in somewhat of a nightmare scenario heading into this game. In the Dolphins’ last game on Sunday against the Bills, the Dolphins defense had to face 90 offensive plays, which also took up an obscene 40:40 of game clock. That game was also played in 100-degree heat in Miami!

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Now, the Dolphins have to travel to Cincinnati on a quick turnaround, facing off against the Bengals on Thursday. That is a tough, tough ask for that defense.

Aside from that part, there are also reasons to back the Bengals schematically in this game. The Bengals offense has struggled almost solely because of their poor offensive line, but the Dolphins don’t have the horses to take advantage of that.

The Dolphins have the ninth-worst adjusted sack rate in the NFL, according to DVOA, and only have six sacks on the season. They do a good job at stopping the run, but we shouldn’t see Joe Burrow running for his life in this game like we did in the first two weeks, which means he should be able to capitalize on the Dolphins fourth-worst pass defense in the NFL.

Moneyline



What is an NFL Prediction?

An NFL prediction can be viewed as the same as a bet. These can be wide-encompassing, ranging from something as simple as betting on who you think is going to win, to something a little more complicated like a prop bet. 

The terminology necessary to understand NFL betting will be explained below, but all that is needed to know about an NFL prediction is that it is essentially identifying something you believe will happen and betting on it. 

How to Bet on NFL Picks & Predictions

When betting on the NFL, there are three main markets (spread, moneyline, total), as well as prop bets and alternate markets.

When you bet on an NFL point spread, you’re betting on the margin of victory (or defeat) as opposed to the outright winner of the game. Let’s say you bet the Los Angels Rams -3.5 vs. the Chicago Bears. This would mean that to win your bet the Rams would need to win by at least 4 points.

Conversely, if you bet the Bears +3.5 they don’t actually need to win the game, they just need to lose by less than 3 points or win outright. This is called covering the spread, and it is applied to both favorites (- next to point spread, called “giving points”) and underdogs (+ sign next to point spread, called “getting points”). If your NFL point spread bet wins, your team covered the spread.

A moneyline is the most simple concept to follow in sports betting, in terms of different bet types. It is simply betting on a team to win the game outright. Your team could win by 1 point or 50 points, it could require overtime or be done in regulation — all that you are betting on is the direct outcome of the game.

The team with a – sign next to its odds is said to be the favorite and the team with the + sign next to its odds is the underdog. Speaking of odds, while the concept is simple the strategy of betting moneylines gets a little more complex. The odds directly determine how much you need to stake to win a certain amount of money.

If the Rams are -275 favorites over the Bears, you would have to bet $275 to win only $100. Conversely, the Bears are +200 underdogs a $100 bet would net you a $200 profit if they were to win.

Betting an over/under or total in the NFL is one of the more popular types of bets you can make. A total, or over/under is a bet on the combined total score of the game (hence being called totals) of both teams. If the total for the Rams vs. Bears example above is set at 41, you are betting that at the end of the game the total of the Rams points and the Bears points would be over or under (hence being called over/under) the number of 41.

If the final score is Rams 21, Bears 14, the game is said to have gone under (total of 35 less than 41). If the final is Rams 28, Bears 21 the game is said to have gone over (total of 49 > 41).

Where to Bet on NFL Picks & Predictions?

The NFL is the most popular sports league in the United States. As such, all major sportsbooks accept NFL bets. Two of the most popular are FanDuel and DraftKings, which offer daily fantasy sports games in addition to traditional sportsbook betting.

We recommend signing up for every book you possibly can! The links below will take you directly to the sportsbooks signup page: 

Caesars

BetMGM

BetRivers/SugarHouse

Unibet

DraftKings

FanDuel

PointsBet

How to Pick the Best NFL Prediction Bets?

The importance of getting the best odds on your NFL bets cannot be overstated. Line shopping is a strategy used by bettors to find the sportsbook that is offering them the best odds on the bet they want to make.

OddsJam has the best odds comparison tool on the market, which you can find by clicking here. We process over 1 MILLION odds per minute from every major sportsbook in the U.S. This means we have the most up-to-date, real-time odds to help you make sure you not only get the best odds on your bet but also spot discrepancies between different sportsbooks moving their odds early or late.

In the NFL, getting the best line can be the difference between winning and losing your money and/or your bet. Let’s say you want to bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat the Buffalo Bills.

One sportsbook has their moneyline odds at -200, another has them at -189. One bet requires you to bet $200 to win $100, while the other only requires you to bet $189 to win $100. To be a profitable sports bettor over time you must be getting the best odds available to you.

Let’s say you want to bet the Buccaneers point spread against the Bills. One sportsbook has them at -3, and another has them at -3.5. If the Buccaneers win by 3 points you would have pushed at the first sportsbook, but lost at the second. Line shopping is important across every bet type including Totals or Over/Unders, Player Props, Game Props, Futures and more!

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