Against the Spread Picks for Every NFL Game: ATS Predictions for Week 6, Including Cowboys vs. Eagles on SNF

OddsJam’s football expert breaks down the NFL slate, giving his against-the-spread picks for every single game of football action! Find the top Week 6 odds, picks and predictions today below.

Thursday Night Football

Commanders vs. Bears (-1)

Thursday, Oct. 13 | 8:15 p.m. ET

Woof. What a grotesque game this is. A classic Thursday night showdown.

The Bears finally showed some signs of life on offense last week, while the Commanders head coach called out his own QB in Carson Wentz. Let’s ride with the home team and move on with our lives.

Commanders vs. Bears Pick: Bears Pick’Em | -110 at Caesars

Early Sunday NFL Slate

49ers (-5.5) vs. Falcons

Sunday, Oct. 16 | 1 p.m. ET

The Falcons are the degenerate gamblers darling of the NFL, as they are currently 5-0 against the spread. They have predictably been underdogs in most of their games so far, which makes it easier to cover, but still, good for them!

With that said, I think the streak ends here. They are surprisingly good on offense (10th in DVOA), but unsurprisingly bad on defense (27th in DVOA). They are going against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the 49ers, who should be able to slow down the Falcons on offense, and I don’t doubt that the 49ers will be able to score.

So, I’ll lay the points with the road favorites.

49ers vs. Falcons Pick: 49ers -5.5 | -107 at PointsBet

Patriots vs. Browns (-2.5)

Sunday, Oct. 16 | 1 p.m. ET

The Patriots are fresh off an impressive defensive showing, shutting out the Lions last week, while the Browns blew a 14-point lead in a loss to the Chargers.

What is going to hold the Patriots back in this one, though, is their rush defense. They are currently the fifth-worst team in the NFL at defending the run, and their opponent is a Browns offense featuring an elite offensive line, and two stud RBs in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

Three games, three favorites we are backing so far.

Patriots vs. Browns Pick: Browns -2.5 | -115 at BetRivers

Jets vs. Packers (-7)

Sunday, Oct. 16 | 1 p.m. ET

For the second straight week, the Packers are 7+ point favorites against a New York team. What could go wrong?

In London, the Packers lost a disappointing game to the Giants last week, while the Jets are on a two-game win streak. With that said, for the past two weeks the Jets went up against two rookie QBs, including the Dolphins third-string QB last week.

This should be a get-right game for the Packers offense specifically, but I don’t trust them enough to win by over a touchdown at this point. I’ll take the points with the Jets.

Jets vs. Packers Pick: Jets +7.5 | -125 at Tipico

Jaguars vs. Colts (-2)

Sunday, Oct. 16 | 1 p.m. ET

I loved the Jaguars last week and they burned me, somehow not scoring a single touchdown against the second-worst defense in the NFL in the Texans. The Colts, meanwhile, did get the win against the Broncos but put up a pathetic offensive performance, also not scoring a touchdown.

The Colts still have the worst offense in the NFL and are the worst team in the NFL overall, both according to DVOA. With the risk of looking silly, I’ll back the Jags to cover again this week, albeit as an underdog this time.

Jaguars vs. Colts Pick: Jaguars +2.5 | -105 at Tipico

Vikings (-3) vs. Dolphins

Sunday, Oct. 16 | 1 p.m. ET

The biggest thing to look out for in this game is who is going to be the starting QB for the Dolphins. They have lost their starter for two straight weeks, with both Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater exiting due to head injuries (concussions).

As of right now, the Dolphins haven’t given us any indication of if either of them will be ready to play this week. The uncertainty makes it tough to predict this game, but I do like riding with a Vikings team that is on a quiet three-game winning streak.

Vikings vs. Dolphins Pick: Vikings -3 | -107 at PointsBet

Bengals (-1.5) vs. Saints

Sunday, Oct. 16 | 1 p.m. ET

Despite the Bengals offensive struggles, they have been stout all season long defensively. Last week, against the top offense in the NFL in the Ravens, the Bengals held them to fewer than 20 points. Unfortunately, they could only muster 17 points, leading to a loss in that game.

The Saints exploded offensively last week, but that was against the worst defense in the NFL in the Seahawks. I’m not confident in either offense this week, but with how banged up the Saints offense is, I trust the Bengals a little more in this one.

Bengals vs. Saints Pick: Bengals -1 | -120 at BetFred

Ravens (-5.5) vs. Giants

Sunday, Oct. 16 | 1 p.m. ET

Boy, the Giants still don’t get any respect. They are 4-1 and playing against a 3-2 Ravens team at home, and yet are underdogs by almost a touchdown. With that said, I get it. Despite the 4-1 record, the Giants still aren’t grading out well statistically, only being ranked 18th in DVOA.

They are 4-1, but with a point differential of only +10. I’ll continue to doubt the Giants and take Baltimore to cover here, who is just simply the better team.

Ravens vs. Giants Pick: Ravens -5 | -110 at BetMGM

Buccaneers (-8) vs. Steelers

Sunday, Oct. 16 | 1 p.m. ET

This game has an interesting range of spreads in terms of what books are pricing the main lines at, with some books having Bucs -7.5 all the way to Bucs -9.

Looking at the game itself, this Steelers team is in free fall. Generally, the Steelers have been very good as home underdogs under Mike Tomlin, but, as the Patriots will tell you, things aren’t quite as easy when you no longer have a Hall of Fame QB at the helm.

The Steelers keep falling, and I will lay the points with the Bucs here.

Buccaneers vs. Steelers Pick: Buccaneers -7.5 | -112 at Tipico

Late Afternoon Sunday Slate

Panthers vs. Rams (-10.5)

Sunday, Oct. 16 | 4:05 p.m. ET

I get that the Panthers just fired their head coach and defensive coordinator, but 10+ points is just too rich for my blood. The Rams haven’t had the most difficult schedule in the world, and sit at 2-3 with neither of their victories being by more than one score.

Panthers interim coach Steve Wilks will get his team to at least play hard, something we couldn’t have said about Matt Rhule.

Give me the Panthers to cover here.

Panthers vs. Rams Pick: Panthers +10.5 | -105 at PointsBet

Cardinals (-2.5) vs. Seahawks

Sunday, Oct. 16 | 4:05 p.m. ET

The Cardinals might be one of the most disorganized, worst-coached teams in the NFL. It seems like every week the Cardinals have some sort of clock management issue, with last week against the Eagles being no different.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, somehow have the literal best offense in the NFL, according to DVOA. The Cardinals aren’t even top 20 in any of the three major categories (offense, defense, special teams). The Seahawks defense is truly awful, but they should be able to continue to put up a ton of points against this Cardinals dumpster fire.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks Pick: Seahawks +3 | -120 at BetMGM

Bills (-2.5) vs. Chiefs

Sunday, Oct. 16 | 4:25 p.m. ET

I was surprised that the Chiefs were home underdogs in this one, especially by about a field goal. If we are using the conventional thought of being at home as equal to 3 points, that means the betting markets are telling us that the Bills are roughly six points better than the Chiefs on an equal field.

With that said, I do like the Bills in this matchup. They are still the No. 1 team in the NFL according to DVOA, with the seventh-best offense and THE best defense.

The Chiefs defense started the season hot but has slowly been descending. I’ll take the Bills to continue their revenge-season tour, and lay the points with them.

Bills vs. Chiefs Pick: Bills -2.5 | -110 at DraftKings

Sunday Night Football

Cowboys vs. Eagles (-4.5)

Sunday, Oct. 16 | 8:20 p.m. ET

Who would have thought that this Week 6 matchup would feature an undefeated Eagles team against a 4-1 Dallas team!? Especially when you consider the Cowboys lost QB Dak Prescott in Week 1 and he has yet to play since. Speaking of Dak, he is currently questionable to play in this game, as he is scheduled to throw “a lot” this week to determine his status.

With that said, even if Prescott sits, I like the Cowboys to cover the spread in this one. The Eagles are dealing with injuries to three of their starting offensive linemen, and this Cowboys team might be the team you’d least like to face in the NFL with a banged-up OL.

Cowboys vs. Eagles Pick: Cowboys +5.5 | -114 at FanDuel

Monday Night Football

Broncos vs. Chargers (-4.5)

Monday, Oct. 17 | 8:15 p.m. ET

I simply cannot believe we have yet another Broncos and Russell Wilson primetime game. This will be their fourth primetime game in the first six weeks of the season! The NFL was really banking on Wilson being, you know, good when they came up with the schedule, but he has instead been one of the worst QBs in the NFL.

Wilson is also currently injured, with his status for Monday’s game in question. The guess here is that he will play, as Wilson has been known to tough out injuries in the past.

So, even with how bad the Broncos offense has been, I actually like them to cover in this game. Their defense has legitimately been lights out, so I think this game will be closer than suggested.

Broncos vs. Chargers Pick: Broncos +5.5 | -110 at BetMGM