Early Sunday London Game
Giants vs. Packers (-8)
Sunday, Oct. 9 | 9:30 a.m. ET
It makes me chuckle how the Giants are 3-1 and yet are over a touchdown underdog against the Packers in a game that is being played in London. It makes sense, because the Giants are about as flukey of a 3-1 team can be when you consider the opponents they’ve beaten so far. They are ranked 23rd in DVOA for a reason.
With that said, this Packers team hasn’t exactly been impressive themselves. They needed overtime to beat a Patriots team on their 3rd-string QB. The Packers should win, but I’ll gladly take the points with the underdog, even though they have QB injuries of their own.
Giants vs. Packers Pick: Giants +8.5 | -110 at FanDuel
Early Sunday NFL Slate
Steelers vs. Bills (-14)
Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. ET
The Steelers finally made the smart decision to bench struggling QB Mitchell Trubisky for exciting rookie Kenny Pickett. Unfortunately for Pickett, though, is he has to go against the Bills and their 2nd-ranked defense in the NFL in Buffalo.
The Bills have now played two straight games in which they didn’t look particularly impressive, but they did come back from down 17 points to beat the Ravens. 14 points is a lot, obviously, but I’ll lay the home-team Bills to cover against a reeling Steelers team.
Steelers vs. Bills Pick: Bills -14 | -105 at PointsBet
Chargers (-3) vs. Browns
Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. ET
This matchup is a battle of two teams that are admittedly hard to get a read on. Both sit at 2-2, with some disappointing losses.
To me, this game will come down to the trenches, where the Browns have the clear advantage. They are the 3rd-best rushing team in the NFL, while the Chargers struggle stopping the run. Sometimes, it is as simple as that.
Chargers vs. Browns Pick: Browns +3 | -110 at DraftKings
Texans vs. Jaguars (-7.5)
Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. ET
*Here we have it folks, my favorite play of the week.*
I am hammering the Jags in this matchup. This line opened up at 3.5, and has already been bet up to 7 or 7.5 depending where you look. It will close above this number as well.
The Jags are at home, are still the 4th-best team in the NFL according to DVOA, even with the loss last week, and are going against the 31st-ranked team in the Texans. This one will get ugly, as the Jags aren’t shy to blow teams out.
Texans vs. Jaguars Pick: Jaguars -7 | -114 at BetRivers
Bears vs. Vikings (-7)
Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. ET
The Bears seem determined to play 1980’s football in that they aren’t even bothering to pass the ball. The most yards QB Justin Fields has thrown for this season is 174, not eclipsing 125+ in any of his previous three starts. This was also the first week in which he attempted over 20 passes.
That is just not how you win games in todays NFL. I’ll lay the points with the home team.
Bears vs. Vikings Pick: Vikings -7 | -107 at PointsBet
Lions vs. Patriots (-3)
Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. ET
Fun fact: The Lions have scored the most points of any team in the NFL with 140. Another fun fact: They are only 1-3 because they have also given up the most points of any team in the NFL with 141.
Luckily for them, they are going against a relatively offensive-inept team in the Patriots who might have to start their 3rd-string QB in this game. They should be able to put up points, which is something that I can not confidently say about the Patriots.
Lions vs. Patriots Pick: Lions +3 | -105 at Tipico
Seahawks vs. Saints (-5.5)
Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. ET
This line feels like a trap, as Admiral Ackbar said best. I see no earthly reason why the Saints should be getting 5.5 points here.
They are 1-3, with their only win coming on a last-second 59-yard field goal against the Falcons, a game in which they had to come back in the fourth quarter. Despite being at home, they played in London last week so they will have somewhat of a weird travel week as well.
This feels like a game in which Vegas knows something and is begging you to take the Seahawks, but I’ll bite.
Seahawks vs. Saints Pick: Seahawks +5.5 | -107 at PointsBet