Against the Spread Picks for Every NFL Game: ATS Predictions for Week 4, Including Jaguars vs. Eagles

OddsJam’s football expert breaks down the NFL slate, giving his against-the-spread picks for every single game of football action! Find the top Week 4 odds, picks and predictions today below.

Early Sunday NFL Slate

Vikings (-2.5) vs. Saints

Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. ET

Both of these teams are likely going nowhere. The Vikings were lucky to beat the Lions last week, while the Saints just lost to the Panthers. Enough said there.

The Saints defense is good, but not as good as they’ve been the past couple of years, while their offense is dreadful. The Vikings defense has also been terrible, so this is truly a matchup of bad vs. bad.

Without a lot of confidence, I will take the home dog to cover the spread in this one.

Vikings vs. Saints Pick: Saints +3 | -107 at PointsBet

Browns (-1) vs. Falcons

Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. ET

This one is interesting in terms of how different the spread is depending on what book you are looking at. The OddsJam Line prices this at Browns -1, but there are books that have the main line of this all the way up to Falcons +2.5.

While I worry about the Browns running all over the Falcons and their sixth-worst rush defense in the NFL, the Falcons have somehow been in every game they’ve played this year, and are a couple of bounces away from being 3-0. I’ll take the points and ride with another underdog here.

Browns vs. Falcons Pick: Falcons +2.5 | -115 at PointsBet

Bills (-3.5) vs. Ravens

Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. ET

This is definitely the best game of the 1 p.m. ET slate. Both of these teams come in with high-powered offenses, with the Ravens having the best offense in the NFL. The Bills aren’t far behind at sixth, according to DVOA.

The main difference here is the Bills defense, which is ranked second in the NFL, while the Ravens are all the way down at 18th. Both of these defenses are banged up, but the Bills defense is significantly better coached. So, I’ll lay the points with them.

Bills vs. Ravens Pick: Bills -3 | -110 at Caesars

Commanders vs. Cowboys (-3)

Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. ET

The Cowboys with Dak Prescott in 2022: 0-1

The Cowboys with Cooper Rush: 3-0

QB controversy! Just kidding, but props to Rush, who has been good backing up Prescott. Now, the Cowboys face a QB in Carson Wentz who is elite at being sacked. Wentz was brought down nine times last week, with at least four of them being 100% his fault.

Now, he is going off against an elite pass-rushing Cowboys defensive line. I’ll lay the points with the Cowboys.

Commanders vs. Cowboys Pick: Cowboys -3 | -120 at Caesars

Seahawks vs. Lions (-4)

Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. ET

In a Week 2 win against the Commanders, the Lions were favored for the first time since November 2020. Now, just two weeks later, they are favored again! Good for them.

Anyways, I love the Lions in this matchup. The Seahawks have been dreadful since their impressive first half against the Broncos in Week 1. The Lions blew a winnable game last week against the Vikings but overall have been solid.

I’ll take the points with the Lions and will pray for the kneecaps of the Seahawks.

Seahawks vs. Lions Pick: Lions -4 | -117 at BetRivers

Chargers (-5) vs. Texans

Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. ET

The Chargers simply just can’t have nice things. They haven’t even played four games yet, and the following players are hurt: Rashawn Slater, Corey Linsley, Keenan Allen, Joey Bosa, J.C. Jackson, and, of course, Justin Herbert. Oh, and they just got curb-stomped by the Jaguars 38-10, a game in which they were roughly a touchdown favorite.

The Chargers shouldn’t be five-point favorites over anybody at this point, so I will gladly take the points with the Texans.

Chargers vs. Texans Pick: Texans +5.5 | -110 at WynnBET

Titans vs. Colts (-3.5)

Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. ET

This is a pretty gross game here. Both of these AFC South disappointments got their first win last week, but neither of them looked particularly impressive. The Colts managed to beat the Chiefs but left football analysts feeling worse about them as a team. The Chiefs gave that game away with multiple self-inflicted wounds more than the Colts having much to do with it.

The Titans finally got a good game out of Derrick Henry, but that offense is still stuck in the mud. The value play is on the Colts here, but admittedly I don’t have a ton of confidence in this one.

Titans vs. Colts Pick: Colts -3 | -112 at BetRivers

Bears vs. Giants (-3.5)

Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. ET

The 2-1 Bears facing off against the 2-1 Giants! This is going to be a battle of NFC juggernauts.

Just kidding. Despite both teams being 2-1, these are two of the worst teams in the NFL. According to DVOA, the Giants are the fifth-worst team in the NFL, with the Bears not far behind as the tenth-worst.

If there is one thing that either of these teams can say they do well, it is the Bears with running the football. Their passing offense is legitimately dead-last in the NFL, but at least they run the ball at the sixth-best rate! This Giants team doesn’t really do anything well, and that includes stopping the run.

So, I’ll take the points with the Bears here.

Bears vs. Giants Pick: Bears +3.5 | -110 at Caesars

Jaguars vs. Eagles (-6.5)

Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. ET

Now, this is going to be a legitimately fun game. Heading into the year, it was mostly thought of as a stinker, but with how good both the Jags and the Eagles look, this should be juicy. Especially with Doug Peterson returning to Philly as the Jags head coach.

The Jaguars are the second-best team in the NFL according to DVOA, while the Eagles are fourth. This matchup also features two of the only three teams in the NFL that are top 6 in both offensive and defensive DVOA (the Bills are the third team).

Overall, this game should be close, as these are two evenly-matched teams on paper and I don’t think the books have caught up to the Jaguars yet.

Jaguars vs. Eagles Pick: Jaguars +6.5 | -107 at PointsBet

Jets vs. Steelers (-3.5)

Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. ET

Gross. The Jets have the worst defense in the NFL, but the Steelers offense, led by Mitchell Trubisky, isn’t exactly the team to take advantage of that. For some reason, Mike Tomlin is sticking with Trubisky as the starter, despite his horrific play.

On the Jets side, this might be the game in which Zach Wilson makes his season debut, which is probably a net negative for the Jets offense overall.

Regardless, this game should settle within a field goal, so I’ll take the points once again with the Jets.

Jets vs. Steelers Pick: Jets +3.5 | -110 at Caesars

Late Afternoon Sunday Slate

Cardinals vs. Panthers (-2)

Sunday, Oct. 2 | 4:05 p.m. ET

Gross. This is the battle of two of the saddest teams in the NFL. They aren’t the two worst teams, but definitely the saddest. The Cardinals literally just extended their head coach and GM in the offseason, but this Arizona team could not look more lost on the football field, and are the second-worst team in the NFL according to DVOA.

The Panthers, meanwhile, traded for Baker Mayfield hoping to solve their QB issues, but it turns out he and Sam Darnold are essentially the same level of awful QB. If nobody has made the Spider-Man meme of the two, that needs to be done ASAP.

Anyways, I’ll take the points here and move on with my life.

Cardinals vs. Panthers Pick: Cardinals +2 | -109 at BetRivers

Patriots vs. Packers (-10.5)

Sunday, Oct. 2 | 4:25 p.m. ET

The biggest news coming into this game is that Patriots starting QB Mac Jones is going to miss this game with a severely sprained ankle. He will be replaced by Brian Hoyer.

With that said, that isn’t the steepest drop-off in the world. Hoyer has shown in his career that he can be an effective game manager. The Packers offense is somehow rated favorably (9th-best in NFL), but I’m not quite buying it. They are only averaging 16 points per game. I like New England to keep this one within 10 points.

Patriots vs. Packers Pick: Patriots +10.5 | -107 at PointsBet

Broncos vs. Raiders (-2.5)

Do you want to know how bad Russell Wilson and this Broncos offense has been? They are 2-1, facing off against an 0-3 Raiders team who has lost to two bad teams, and yet the Broncos are underdogs.

Granted, the Raiders are the home team, but still. The Broncos were lucky to win both of their games so far, but their luck runs out on Sunday. I’ll lay the points with the winless Raiders.

Broncos vs. Raiders Pick: Raiders -2.5 | -107 at PointsBet

Sunday Night Football

Chiefs (-1.5) vs. Buccaneers

Sunday, Oct. 2 | 8:20 p.m. ET

This Buccaneers defense is legitimately great (best defense in the NFL according to DVOA), but their offense is a disaster. That feels weird to say with Tom Brady at QB, but that is the reality we live in. They are so banged up along the offensive line that Brady barely has time to throw, and when he does he is throwing to a banged-up set of skill position players.

The Chiefs had a weird loss to the Colts last Sunday, but that game was full of uncharacteristic, self-inflicted wounds. They had a muffed punt, a dropped TD, and an unsportsmanlike penalty that essentially lost them the game.

This game will be low-scoring, but I’ll take the Chiefs to cover.

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Pick: Chiefs -1.5 | -114 at BetRivers

Monday Night Football

Rams vs. 49ers (-2)

Monday, Oct. 3 | 8:15 p.m. ET

Neither of these teams has inspired much confidence so far this season, with the Rams sitting at 2-1, and the 49ers an even more disappointing 1-2. The 49ers especially have to be kicking themselves, blowing two winnable games in their two losses.

Jimmy Garoppolo played about as bad a game a QB can play this past Sunday night against the Broncos, a disappointing loss in which the 49ers defense held the Broncos offense to only 11 points, giving up their first touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

Despite winning two games in a row, the Rams haven’t looked great themselves, beating two awful teams in the Cardinals and Falcons. They are 22nd in DVOA for a reason. With that said, I still like them to cover the spread in this game. I am still washing my eyes after witnessing what Jimmy G did on Sunday night.

Rams vs. 49ers Pick: Rams +2.5 | -108 at Tipico

Thursday Night Football

Dolphins vs. Bengals (-3.5)

Thursday, Sept. 29 | 8:15 p.m. ET

Despite being undefeated and coming off a legitimately impressive win against the Bills, the Dolphins still find themselves underdogs against the disappointing Bengals. Sure, the Bengals just got their first win of the season last week, but they still have a ton of issues to work out.

The Dolphins defense held the Bills to without a touchdown in the second half of their game last week, and now they get a Bengals offense that, despite a good win last week, still ranks as second-worst in the NFL. Give me the Dolphins to keep this close.

Dolphins vs. Bengals Pick: Dolphins +4 | -107 at PointsBet