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Against the Spread Picks for Every NFL Game: ATS Predictions for Week 13, Feat. Saints vs. Buccaneers on MNF
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OddsJam’s football expert breaks down the NFL slate, giving his against-the-spread picks for every single game of football action! Find the top Week 12 odds, picks and predictions today below.
Thursday Night Football
Bills (-4.5) vs. Patriots
Thursday, Dec. 1 | 8:15 p.m. ET
After an impressive 6-1 start, the Bills have looked relatively beatable for the past month or so. That, coupled with some untimely injuries to both sides of the ball, has led to them no longer being the favorite to come out of the AFC for the first time all season. That honor now goes to the Chiefs.
The Bills also have a bad habit of playing down to their competition, which is what I expect to happen here.
Bills vs. Patriots Pick: Patriots +5.5 | -114 at BetRivers
Early Sunday NFL Slate
Steelers vs. Falcons (-1.5)
Sunday, Dec. 4 | 1 p.m. ET
The Steelers have shown some signs of life on offense recently, scoring 20+ points in each of their last three games. They also shored some things up on defense, which mostly has to do with getting T.J. Watt back healthy.
They have now won two of their last three, and I like them in this matchup against the boring Falcons this week.
Steelers vs. Falcons Pick: Steelers +1.5 | -109 at BetRivers
Broncos vs. Ravens (-8.5)
Sunday, Dec. 4 | 1 p.m. ET
Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense have been so bad that we are now seeing players on the Broncos defense start to scream at Wilson on the sideline.
Finally, the betting markets are starting to catch on to just how bad the Broncos are, but even this spread isn’t high enough. Give me the Ravens.
Broncos vs. Ravens Pick: Ravens -8 | -110 at BetMGM
Packers (-3) vs. Bears
Sunday, Dec. 4 | 1 p.m. ET
This game is tough to handicap because we literally have no idea who is going to start at QB for either team. With that said, Jordan Love showed some juice for the Packers in his limited action against the Eagles last week, so I will lay the points with the Packers in this one, albeit without a ton of confidence.
Packers vs. Bears Lean: Packers -3 | -110 at Caesars
Jaguars vs. Lions (-1)
Sunday, Dec. 4 | 1 p.m. ET
Trevor Lawrence has quietly played great in the Jaguars’ past three games. The Jags are 2-1 in that stretch as well, after an exciting fourth-quarter comeback against the Ravens last week.
The Lions have played good football as well recently, having their three-game win streak snapped last week against the Bills on a last-second field goal. I’ll ride with the home team Lions in this one.
Jaguars vs. Lions Pick: Lions -1 | -107 at PointsBet
Browns (-7) vs. Texans
Sunday, Dec. 4 | 1 p.m. ET
The huge storyline in this one is that this will be Deshaun Watson’s first game back from suspension, and therefore his first start for the Browns. Of course, the NFL made the schedule in a way that his first start also just so happens to be against his former team in the Texans.
This pains me, but the Browns are the play here. The Texans are, without a doubt, the worst team in football and gave up on the season in September.
Browns vs. Texans Pick: Browns -7 | -110 at Caesars
Jets vs. Vikings (-3)
Sunday, Dec. 4 | 1 p.m. ET
It’s amazing how much better the Jets offense plays with mere competence at quarterback, instead of the slop that is Zach Wilson. With Mike White at the helm, the Jets offense played great and scored over 30 points, their highest point total in their past six games.
The Jets defense has been an elite unit all year, currently ranked fourth in the NFL in DVOA. That defense should be able to cause issues for Kirk Cousins, who is easy to rattle. Give me the points with the Jets here, in a game I think they win straight up.
Jets vs. Vikings Pick: Jets +3 | -107 at PointsBet
Commanders (-2) vs. Giants
Sunday, Dec. 4 | 1 p.m. ET
I’m not quite sure why this spread is as low as it is. The Giants have now lost three of four, with their only win being against the lowly Texans.
The Commanders, meanwhile, have been red hot since Taylor Heinicke took over. They keep on winning.
Commanders vs. Giants Pick: Commanders -1.5 | -114 at FanDuel
Titans vs. Eagles (-5.5)
Sunday, Dec. 4 | 1 p.m. ET
The Titans are the perfect team built to make things tough on the Eagles. The Titans do a great job stopping the run (best rush defense in the NFL according to DVOA), and they also are a great running team with Derrick Henry.
The Eagles struggle against the run, and, as we saw on Sunday Night Football, love to run the ball on offense. I love the Titans spread in this one, and they are another underdog that I like to win outright as well.
Titans vs. Eagles Pick: Titans +5.5 | -110 at BetMGM
Late Afternoon Sunday Slate
Seahawks (-8) vs. Rams
Sunday, Dec. 4 | 4:05 p.m. ET
The Seahawks are reeling, having now lost two straight and also their division lead in the NFC West.
Luckily, the Rams stink and are completely decimated due to injuries.
Seahawks vs. Rams Pick: Seahawks -8 | -107 at PointsBet
Dolphins vs. 49ers (-3.5)
Sunday, Dec. 4 | 4:05 p.m. ET
This is going to be an awesome game. We have the Dolphins, winners of five straight, heading to San Francisco to take on the 49ers, winners of four straight. The Dolphins have also not lost a game that QB Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished.
In the end, the Dolphins are the play here, at least against the spread. As good as the 49ers have looked in their four-game win streak, here are the four offenses they have played: the Rams, a banged-up Chargers unit missing both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, the Cardinals without Kyler Murray, and the Saints last week. Not exactly a murderers’ row of opponents.
Dolphins vs. 49ers Pick: Dolphins +3.5 | -110 at FanDuel
Chiefs (-2) vs. Bengals
Sunday, Dec. 4 | 4:25 p.m. ET
Either this one or the Dolphins-49ers is the game of the week. The Chiefs are 8-2 on the season, and currently in first place in the AFC, while the Bengals are 7-2 since their 0-2 start.
This game specifically is also a rematch of the AFC Championship Game last year, a game in which the Chiefs blew a huge lead and lost to the Bengals in OT. Let’s not forget that the Bengals also beat the Chiefs in the regular season last year as well.
The Bengals should get Ja’Marr Chase back in this game as well, which is a huge addition to their already hot offense.
Chiefs vs. Bengals Pick: Bengals +2.5 | -108 at FanDuel
Chargers (-1.5) vs. Raiders
Sunday, Dec. 4 | 4:25 p.m. ET
The biggest news to keep an eye on heading into this game is the status of Josh Jacobs. The Raiders’ star RB has been on fire this season but is questionable to suit up on Sunday and isn’t expected to practice all week with a calf strain.
The Chargers needed a last-second touchdown AND the 2-point conversion to come back against the lowly Cardinals last week, so even without Jacobs, I like the Raiders, winners of two straight, to stay hot in this one.
Chargers vs. Raiders Pick: Raiders +2 | -107 at PointsBet
Sunday Night Football
Colts vs. Cowboys (-10.5)
Sunday, Dec. 4 | 8:20 p.m. ET
I fear for what Micah Parsons is going to do to Matt Ryan and the Colts offensive line in this game. I know 10.5 points is a lot, but we are starting to see the inexperience of Jeff Saturday show, as the Colts head coach had some clock management issues in their last game against the Steelers.
The Cowboys should win this one easily.
Colts vs. Cowboys Pick: Cowboys -10.5 | -109 at BetRivers
Monday Night Football
Saints vs. Buccaneers (-3.5)
Monday, Dec. 5 | 8:15 p.m. ET
The Saints have historically played Tom Brady and the Bucs tough, even including their first matchup this year when the Saints held the Bucs to three points in the first three quarters, before a Jameis Winston pick-six opened the floodgates in the fourth.
The Bucs offense is putrid and completely broken, as they could only muster 17 points against a bad Browns defense last week. The Saints aren’t great themselves, but they will at least be able to keep this game within a field goal.
