Against the Spread Picks for Every NFL Game: ATS Predictions for Week 1, Including Bills vs. Rams

<p>AP Photos</p>

AP Photos

OddsJam’s football expert breaks down the NFL slate, giving his against-the-spread picks for every single game of football action! Find the top Week 1 odds, picks and predictions today below.

Thursday Night Football

Bills (-2) vs. Rams

Thursday, Sept. 8 | 8:20 p.m. ET

The Bills are currently the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, but for the NFL’s Kickoff Game, I am riding with the defending champions.

Sean McVay is 5-0 in his career in Week 1, while defending Super Bowl champs are 18-3 straight up on opening night in the last 21 years. 

Tre’Davious White being out of this game is a big deal, as I think Matthew Stafford and company have a big day through the air. 

Bills vs. Rams Pick: Rams +2.5 | -110 at Caesars (Bet to +2)

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Early Sunday NFL Slate

Saints (-5.5) vs. Falcons

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 1 p.m. ET

This is a tough one that I admittedly went back and forth on, as these are two teams that I am actively looking to fade. The Falcons are a legitimate option to end the season with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, whereas the Saints are also projected to take a major step back with Sean Payton retiring in the offseason.

With that said, the Falcons looked better than expected in the preseason, and Week 1 starting quarterback Marcus Mariota has legitimately looked good as well. So, I’ll ride with the home team to keep this one somewhat close. 

Saints vs. Falcons Pick: Lean Falcons +5.5 | -110 at Caesars

Browns vs. Panthers (-2.5)

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 1 p.m. ET

This is going to be an incredibly entertaining game, with the Baker Mayfield revenge tour starting off with a bang going against his former team that traded him away. 

The Browns will be starting Jacoby Brissett in this game, as their starting QB Deshaun Watson is suspended for the first 11 games.

Overall, I view these teams as relatively equal in terms of overall talent, but I give the Panthers the slight edge at quarterback with Mayfield. That, coupled with the Panthers being at home, leads me to laying the points with the Panthers here.

Browns vs. Panthers Pick: Panthers -2 | -110 at Caesars (Bet to -2.5)

49ers (-6.5) vs. Bears

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 1 p.m. ET

The Bears, along with the Falcons as I mentioned earlier, are a team that could easily end the season with the worst record in the NFL but did have a promising preseason.

But still, this Bears roster is just so, so bad. According to PFF, they have the second-worst offensive line in the NFL, coupled with the worst-rated skill positions. 

While I do think San Francisco’s new starting QB Trey Lance is going to have some growing pains, this 49ers defensive line is going to feast. 

49ers vs. Bears Pick: 49ers -6.5 | -120 at FanDuel

Steelers vs. Bengals (-6.5)

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 1 p.m. ET

The Steelers find themselves in a rare position where they lost a future Hall of Fame QB to retirement in the offseason, but figure to actually be better at QB than they were last year.

It was sad to watch, but Big Ben was a shell of himself last year. Out of 37 QBs that qualified for the minimum number of snaps played, Ben Roethlisberger was rated the worst QB in the entire NFL, according to PFF. So, whether it is Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett, I am expecting the Steelers to get better QB play than they did last year.

That, coupled with the Steelers’ stout defense, makes me believe this game will be closer than the spread indicates. I’ll take the points with the Steelers.

Steelers vs. Bengals Pick: Steelers +6.5 | -110 at Caesars

Eagles (-3.5) vs. Lions

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 1 p.m. ET

The Lions were interesting last year. They only won three games, but covered in 11 of 17, finishing 1-7 in one-score games. 

The Eagles, meanwhile, spent the 2021 season pummeling the bad teams but couldn’t beat the good ones. The Eagles made significant upgrades to their roster in the offseason, while the Lions are still starting Jared Goff at QB.

These two teams played last year, with the Eagles taking a blow torch to the Lions and winning 44-6. They probably won’t win by 38 again this year, but I love laying the points with the Eagles in this one.

Eagles vs. Lions Pick: Eagles -3.5 | -114 at FanDuel

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Colts (-8) vs. Texans

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 1 p.m. ET

In our 2022 NFL Power Rankings, the Texans were given the honor of being ranked 32nd (out of 32 teams) in the NFL. So, no, we are not high on the Texans this year. 

With that said, 8 points is just too rich for my blood. Since head coach Frank Reich has been coaching the Colts, they have yet to win a game in Week 1. The Colts are notorious for starting slow before picking it up as the season goes along.

There are some gross losses in this five-game stretch too. In 2020, the Jaguars won exactly one game all year. Guess what their one win was? If you guessed against the Colts in Week 1, you are correct.

I’ll rely on the Texans being able to keep this within a touchdown.

Colts vs Texans Pick: Texans +8.5 | -110 at BetMGM (Bet to +8)

Patriots vs. Dolphins (-3)

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 1 p.m. ET

This is another game featuring two teams that I am actively looking to fade this year. The Dolphins are getting a little bit too much love, in my opinion, after the Tyreek Hill trade. They still need Tua Tagovailoa to do something he’s never done in his NFL career: be a good quarterback.

With that said, the Patriots are even more juicy to fade. The offense, led by two disaster coaches in Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, has reportedly been struggling mightily in training camp.

The Patriots also made their bones on dominating the weaker competition last year, only winning three games (out of 10) against teams with a winning record in 2021. That includes going 0-2 against these same Dolphins. 

Give me the home team in this one.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Pick: Dolphins -3 | -110 at Caesars

Ravens (-6.5) vs. Jets

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 1 p.m. ET

**Here we have it. My favorite pick of the slate!**

I am hammering the Ravens in this one. The Jets will presumably be starting the corpse of Joe Flacco at QB, with Zach Wilson still nursing a knee injury. Flacco, by the way, has won two games total in the three years since he was traded by the Ravens. He went 2-6 with the Broncos in 2019, and a combined 0-5 with the Jets the previous two seasons. 

The Ravens also have an MO of blowing out teams in Week 1. From 2017-2020, they went 4-0 in Week 1, out-scoring their opponents by an average of 36.25 points, or a total of 145.

So, yeah, I’ll take the points with the Ravens

Ravens vs. Jets Pick: Ravens -6.5 | -114 at FanDuel (Bet to -7)

Jaguars vs. Commanders (-3)

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 1 p.m. ET

The NFL knew what they were doing scheduling this matchup in Week 1. The last time we saw Commanders starting QB Carson Wentz on a football field, he was soiling himself on national television against this Jaguars team. All the Colts needed to do to make the playoffs was beat these lowly Jags. Instead, Wentz put up the epic clunker, going 17-29 for 185 yards with 1 interception, and losing 1 fumble while being sacked 6 times.

It was everything bad about the Carson Wentz experience wrapped up in one game. He was promptly traded away after that, and here we are. 

The Jags could be frisky now that they have gotten away from Urban Meyer and replaced him with Doug Pederson, so I’ll lay the points with them in this one.

Jaguars vs. Commanders Pick: Jaguars +3.5 | -122 at FanDuel (Bet to +3)

Late Sunday NFL Slate

Chiefs (-4) vs. Cardinals 

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 4:25 p.m. ET

This is another game in which I struggled with a pick against the spread. While I absolutely love this total going over, that doesn’t exactly help with the spread. 

A lot has been made this offseason about how horrible the Cardinals are to end the season, but in order to finish slow, that means there must have been a fast start. 

The Chiefs, meanwhile, always start the season fast on offense but slow on defense, as detailed in our game preview, (which is why I love the total). On average, the Chiefs gave up over 32 points per game in their first five games last season. 

So, granted without a ton of confidence, I’ll lay the points with the home dog in this one.

Chiefs vs. Cardinals Pick: Cardinals +4.5 | -110 at Caesars (Bet to +4)

Raiders vs. Chargers (-3.5) 

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 4:25 p.m. ET

It has been fun to watch the line movement on this one. At one point in the offseason you could get the Raiders +4.5 at -110 odds, but now the spread has swung a full point in favor of the Chargers. 

In terms of talent alone, the Chargers could legitimately be the best team in the NFL when it’s all said and done. QB Justin Herbert has MVP potential and is surrounded by elite weapons. 

Defensively, the Chargers finished as the seventh-worst defense in the NFL last year, according to Football Outsiders. But, with a strong defensive end rotation in Joey Bosa and newly traded for Khalil Mack, I can see them giving fits to the Raiders OL, which PFF ranks as the fourth-worst in the NFL.

Raiders vs. Chargers Pick: Chargers -3 | -120 at FanDuel

Packers (-1.5) vs. Vikings

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 4:25 p.m. ET

This game has the widest range of pricing on the spread, with some books pricing this at Packers -1 all the way up to Packers -2.5 on a couple of others. 

I lean toward the Vikings in this one, though. This team was ready to move on from curmudgeon head coach Mike Zimmer, who was fired in the offseason and replaced by Kevin O’Connell. O’Connell comes over from the Rams, where he was the offensive coordinator. 

This Vikings offense had been playing well for the past two years, too, with Zimmer’s defense letting them down more often than not. QB Kirk Cousins has thrown for over 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns each of the last two seasons.

I could also see Aaron Rodgers taking a step back after losing Davante Adams, so I’ll roll with the Vikings here.

Packers vs. Vikings Pick: Vikings +2.5 | -115 at FanDuel (Bet to +2)

Giants vs. Titans (-5.5)

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 4:25 p.m. ET

This is going to feel gross, but backing the Giants is the play here. Despite finishing last year as the 1-seed in the playoffs, the Titans only finished 20th in DVOA. They were not an analytically-friendly football team, and are primed to take a step back this year.

The biggest roster change, of course, is no longer having receiver A.J. Brown, who was traded away in the offseason.

While the Giants have been a disaster for five years running now, they can only go up with new head coach Brian Daboll. I think they can keep this one within a touchdown.

Giants vs. Titans Pick: Giants +6 | -110 at BetMGM

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Sunday Night Football

Buccaneers (-1.5) vs. Cowboys

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 8:20 p.m. ET

Both of these teams have some bad vibes entering the season. On the Bucs side, Tom Brady missed two weeks of training camp under mysterious circumstances. Brady returns to an offense that has already lost three interior offensive linemen, which could spell disaster as Brady has long struggled with pressure up the middle.

On the Cowboys side, they also are down three o-linemen from last year, losing two to free agency and the third being Tyron Smith who went down with a serious injury during training camp.

With Smith, Dak Prescott is 41-24 in his career, dropping down to 17-15 without him. So, that gives me enough confidence taking the points with the Buccaneers on Sunday Night

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Pick: Bucs -1 | -118 at FoxBet

Monday Night Football

Broncos (-6) vs. Seahawks

Monday, Sept. 12 | 8:15 p.m. ET

Talk about line movement! Earlier in the summer, you could get the Broncos at -4, but now the majority of books have them at -6 or even -6.5 on some. 

You can understand why people are hammering the Broncos, though. They have Russell Wilson now, and the Seahawks don’t. Sometimes it is that simple.

In Denver, Wilson is no longer burdened by the league’s worst offensive line and a head coach who wants to run an outdated ground-and-pound style rushing attack. 

Yes, 6 points is a lot for a Denver team that has a new coaching staff and quarterback, but Seattle has a bottom-three roster in the entire NFL. Oh, and the Seahawks are starting Geno Smith at QB. I’ll still ride with the Broncos.

Broncos vs. Seahawks Pick: Broncos -6 | -110 at Caesars

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