Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Odds, Picks & Predictions: Back the Spartans in This Talent Mismatch

The NCAAF week one schedule grants us this intrastate matchup between the Michigan State Spartans facing off against the Western Michigan Broncos.

This game is being played at Michigan State on Friday, September 2nd at 7 p.m. ET. Unsurprisingly, the Spartans are huge favorites here.

Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Betting Odds

The once powerhouse Michigan State Spartans have had a rough go of it in recent years, before turning in an impressive 11-2 season this past season. Last year was also new head coach Mel Tuckers second season coaching the team.

Prior to Tucker, the Spartans were coached by Mark Dantonio for 13 seasons. Dantonio mostly had success, but struggled in his last four years coaching the team, which eventually led to his firing after the 2019 season.

Tucker had a rough first season in East Lansing, going 2-5 in a Covid shortened season, but impressed last year. The Spartans were 11-2, as previously mentioned, earning a Peach Bowl invitation in which they beat Pittsburgh 31-21.

Now, heading into the 2022 season, Michigan State has some legitimate positive momentum, currently ranked 15th in the Nation according to the AP poll that was just released.

Michigan State returns quarterback Payton Thorne, who had a good year last year in which he threw for 27 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions. He also has his number one weapon Jayden Reed return, giving the Spartans a deep and talented pass-catching group.

Along the offensive line they return experience at all five starting positions, so they figure to be stout up front as well.

Where the Spartans might struggle, though, is replacing running back Kenneth Walker. He was a beast for the Spartans last year, ending the season with 263 carries for 1,636 yards and 18 touchdowns. Walker was drafted to the NFL in the second-round. They look to replace him with two transfers.

Overall, the Spartans should have a strong offense in 2022, but without Walker they figure to be significantly less explosive and might take a step back overall.

Defensively is where the Spartans struggled last year, and they will need better coaching and some players to step up if they want to perform better this year.

They ended last season with the most passing yards allowed in the country. They also struggled to get off the field, ending the year with a poor third-down defense.

The most likely scenario for the Spartans season on the whole is that they take a step back offensively, but step forward defensively.

On the Western Michigan side, they are a good team in their conference, the MAC, but they are at a severe talent disadvantage going against Michigan State.

The Broncos will need to replace quarterback Kaleb Eleby, who was a great QB for them last year, leading an offense that finished 12th in the nation in terms of total offense, averaging 32.5 points per game.

They also need to replace electric wide receiver Skyy Moore, who finished last season with 96 catches for 1,293 yards and was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2022 NFL draft.

Overall, I have a hard time seeing Western Michigan keeping this game close. Needing to replace their QB and top WR is too much to overcome, considering they are out-classed up and down the roster from a talent perspective.

Michigan State has also won 12 of its last 13 season openers, with the only loss coming in the 2-5 Covid season, and they have never lost to Western Michigan. So, we will be rolling with the Spartans here.

The OddsJam line prices this spread at -19, but thanks to line shopping on the OddsJam NCAAF odds page, I was able to get Michigan State at -18.5 on BetMGM

Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Betting Pick: Michigan State -18.5 | -110 at BetMGM