A 10 point spread suggests that the books think this game will be a blowout, relatively speaking. With that said, that is actually an improvement from when these two teams last played!
Nevada and New Mexico State squared off last year, in October of 2021 and the spread in that game was a much higher 28 points. New Mexico State covered that spread too!
Granted, by exactly 1 point in a 27 point loss, but hey still counts as a win against the spread all the same.
Looking at this years matchup, it is understandable why the spread is over two touchdowns difference from last year. The most notable reason is Nevada is dealing with an incredible amount of change from last year to this year.
Gone is head coach Jay Norvell, who took a job with Colorado State, and in is Ken Wilson, who is a first time head coach. The Wolf Pack also need to replace starting quarterback Carson Strong as well as number one receiver Romeo Doubs.
Overall, Nevada needs to replace a total of 185 catches for almost 2,300 yards and 29 touchdowns from last years squad. That’s a tough task!
Defensively they should fare better, fielding a defense that is chock full of upperclassmen.
On the New Mexico side, there actually is some reason for hope when you dig into it. For the first time in nine years they have a new head coach, Jerry Kill.
Kill is a fantastic head coach, but had health issues in his last head coaching stint in Minnesota. His coaching philosophy is to lean on the run game, control the clock, and win by minimizing mistakes.
He has the offensive line, but unfortunately that is pretty much it. They lost quarterback Jonah Johnson, who transferred, and will be relying on one of two options between Westen Eget and Dino Maldonado, both of whom lack experience.
They also lost their top two receivers from last year as well, so 2022 should feature plenty of growing pains for the Aggies.
Defensively should be a different story, though. They have new options at cornerback that have potential, as well as veteran pieces at linebacker and defensive line. While this team will struggle on offense, they should have a somewhat respectable defense.
So, with all this said, I actually love the under as a play here. With two offenses that should have a ton of growing pains facing off against two solid defenses, the under has a ton of value.
Nevada vs. New Mexico State Betting Pick: Game Total Under 55 | -110 at Caesars
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