Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 1 – Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions – May 1, 2022

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 1 Odds

Heading into Game 1 of this series between the 2-seed Memphis Grizzlies and 3-seed Golden State Warriors, we’ll be looking at two wildly different teams that have shown themselves to be legitimate contenders this season — both in entirely different ways.

The Warriors are one of the oldest teams in the league and are looking to show that they can still compete with the young guns making a name for themselves. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are one of the youngest teams on average and have quite a bit to prove as they make their long-awaited return to contention behind an MVP-caliber season from Ja Morant. 

Game 1 should be a fun one! While the Warriors are the lower seed, they’re favored by 2.5 points, with the total coming in at 217.5. Be sure to check out our series preview as well.

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 1 Betting Preview

Following their fourth-quarter comeback in Game 6 against the Minnesota Timberwolves, the No. 2 seed Grizzlies have punched their ticket to the Western Conference Semifinals for the first time since the 2014-2015 season.

Their roster and coaching staff have had a complete overhaul since then (from the “Grit and Grind” Grizz to the high-paced offense of the Ja Morant-led Grizz), but one thing coincidentally remains the same as their most recent playoff run: Memphis will be taking on the Warriors in the second round of the playoffs. 

While the Grizzlies have been phenomenal this season against the spread (55-32-1), their series with the Timberwolves revealed several things. It showed that the Grizzlies can struggle against some of the more offensively-gifted teams and that they’re more reliant than many teams on free throws to get their own offense going, averaging 32.3 FTA per game.

The Warriors are far below that at 26.8 FTA, but they’re the more polished team defensively (first vs. fourth in Defensive Rating) between the two, and are significantly better defensively than the Timberwolves (13th) were in DRtg.

While the Warriors haven’t been above average at limiting opponents FTA (23.1 per game), they’re still much better at it than the league-last Timberwolves were (25.9 per game). Considering that, I expect the Grizzlies’ offensive efficiency to take a dip, and with the greater rest the Warriors have had going into this Game 1 matchup, we’ll be taking the Warriors to cover the spread at -2.5, available for -106 at FanDuel.
The reality of this Game 1 matchup is that the current Golden State roster has far more playoff experience on its side than Memphis. Between Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala, the Warriors have four players who have made five Finals runs in the past seven years.

Meanwhile, the Grizzlies only have one player with four or more playoff runs to his name in Kyle Anderson. To their credit, the Grizzlies looked to be the better team throughout the regular season, but the difference in playoff experience is a major one now that the pressure is on.

In the regular season this year, the Grizzlies averaged 115.6 PPG, with their PPG dropping slightly to 114.7 in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Warriors have jumped significantly from their 111 PPG in the regular season, averaging 118 PPG so far in the playoffs.

While both teams were far superior to their Round 1 opponents defensively, the offensive numbers so far in these playoffs are giving us a good feeling about the type of scoring outbursts that are possible for both teams, so we’ll be taking the over for this game; you can get over 222 +114 at BetRivers.

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 1 Betting Pick

My official NBA betting pick for this game is to lay the points with the Warriors.

Pick: Warriors -2.5 | -106 at FanDuel

Bonus Pick: Over 222 | +114 at BetRivers

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 1 Prediction

For Game 1, I’ll be counting on the Warriors’ edge in experience and efficiency rather than the Grizzlies’ youth and momentum. I’m taking the Warriors to get out to a 1-0 series lead, beating the Grizzlies 116 – 109.