PrizePicks Value – Sharp Player Prop Picks for Tonight

I’m going to be running you through a ton of sharp player prop picks for tonight. All of my player prop bets are on PrizePicks, a fantasy sports platform.

Pick #1: Philipp Grubauer over 23.5 Saves in Kraken vs Stars

It’s a great day on PrizePicks since it’s “Taco Tuesday.” Taco Tuesday is a betting promo that PrizePicks runs every week. It’s a pretty simple promo… For Taco Tuesday, PrizePicks “discounts” certain players.

For example, in the picture above, you can see that PrizePicks is bringing down Philipp Grubauer’s Goal Saves line from 27.5 saves to 23.5 saves. Obviously, you want to take the over 23.5 saves on PrizePicks. You’re essentially getting a “4 save discount.”

If Grubauer has 24 to 27 saves, then this Taco Tuesday pick will win but his regular line (over 27.5 saves) would lose. This Taco Tuesday NHL player prop is not a guaranteed win; Grubauer could still have less than 24 saves.

Regardless, this Taco Tuesday player prop has clear value. It’s very profitable, and I bet it. As seen in the screenshot above from the OddsJam NHL Screen, all sportsbooks have Grubauer’s line @ 27.5 saves. Getting over 23.5 Saves is an incredibly sharp bet.

Pick #2: Jon Gray under 4.5 Ks in Rangers vs Diamondbacks

My second pick is Jon Gray under 4.5 Strikeouts in Rangers vs Diamondbacks. I found this MLB prop bet on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool.

PrizePicks is an interesting platform because they don’t vary payouts based on the picks you select. It’s a fixed payout platform.

As an example, for a PrizePicks 5 pick Flex Play, the payout is as follows:

1. 5/5 Picks Correct: 10x Payout
2. 4/5 Picks Correct: 2x Payout
3. 3/5 Picks Correct: 0.4x Payout

These payouts never change. You could take 5 golf picks, 3 NBA & two MLB picks, or any other combination of 5 picks. A 5 flex always has this payout on PrizePicks.

Because PrizePicks does not vary payouts based on you selecting over (or under), the strategy for beating them is relatively simple: find spots where sportsbooks have one side heavily favored.

As seen in the screenshot below from the OddsJam Positive EV Tool, all sportsbooks have Jon Gray’s under 4.5 Ks as the heavily favored outcome. FanDuel has the under at -146 odds, Caesars at -161 odds, DraftKings at -155 odds, etc.

Thus, Jon Gray under 4.5 Strikeouts is a sharp MLB bet to include your PrizePicks entry. You essentially have dozens of data points (e.g. sportsbooks posting odds), and they’re all telling you the same thing – Jon Gray’s under is a lot more likely than his over.

My final PrizePicks entry for Taco Tuesday is above. Taco Tuesday has a max betting limit of $25, so I used the following 6 picks in a flex play:

1. Grubauer over 23.5 Saves
2. Gray under 4.5 Ks
3. Lowry over 10.5 Points
4. Contreras over 1.5 Walks Allowed
5. Houck Under 1.5 Walks Allowed
6. DeSclafani over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed

I also included the “non Taco Tuesday” picks in a PrizePicks 5 flex. I’m staking $125 to win $1,250 if all 5 picks win. If we go 4/5, then I’ll get a 2x payout (e.g. $250).

I always try to explain the math & logic behind my picks. Of course, I want to give out profitable bets that everybody can tail, but I also care about explaining why each player prop pick is profitable.

In the tutorial video below, I outline my PrizePicks betting strategy. I explain how to make money sports betting on PrizePicks & win long-term.