2022-2023 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds, Picks & Predictions: Who Is the Best of the New Talent?

As the 2022 NBA Draft concluded and teams made their selections, the release of the Rookie of the Year odds were made available. Every team hopes to have drafted their “star,” and this award is a good jumping-off point for it. 

The last No. 1 pick to win the award was Ben Simmons in 2018, and four of the last five have been guards. Scottie Barnes won the award this past season, as a two-way wing for the Toronto Raptors.

Playing time and freedom in the offense are huge factors for who wins the award. The winners tend to be high-level contributors on bad teams, or immediate impact players on good teams.

2022-2023 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds

The Safe Pick: Paolo Banchero | -1000 at DraftKings

The Orlando Magic selected Paolo Banchero with their first overall selection. The freshman was a monster in his year at Duke, flashing incredible offensive potential.

The Orlando Magic ranked 30th in offense last season, and Banchero has been able to come in and contribute right away — while they’re not worlds better at 25th this year, they look significantly better on both ends of the ball. He has an advanced isolation package, being able to pull up from mid-range or use his physical tools to attack the basket, and he is one of the most polished rookies we’ve seen in years.

At 6-foot-10 and 250 pounds, he has been a matchup nightmare for fully grown NBA players. He mixes his physical frame with an offensive fluidity and has a great feel for when to get all the way to the rim and finish or make a play for a teammate. Banchero averaged 17.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists in his season at Duke, and has averaged 19.9/6.7/3.6 in his first year in the NBA.

The Magic have a slew of young players, but as the No. 1 pick, Banchero has been afforded all the room for mistakes and freedom to get a high volume of shots up, and he’s been delivering all season long.

He is a three-level scorer and that has translated quickly to the NBA. The leading scorer for the rookies has been a consistent benchmark for the winner, and Banchero is the safe (and all but guaranteed) pick here at -1000. 

The Longshot: Bennedict Mathurin | +800 at DraftKings

The Indiana Pacers had their highest draft pick since 1988, and selected the electric guard Bennedict Mathurin from Arizona. At 6-foot-6 and 210 pounds, Mathurin is an explosive athlete that has incredible range and variety as a shooter. He averaged 17.7 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.5 assists in his second season in college, and has averaged 17.2/4.1/1.4 since his entry to the NBA.

With shooting being at a premium in the league, Mathruin’s game has translated right away, and he has multiple 30+ point games to show for it. In his second college season, he flashed brilliance on pull-up threes on pick and rolls or off-ball screens and was highly efficient in catch-and-shoot situations, a skillset that has suited him well playing next to Tyrese Haliburton.

With Haliburton taking on more of the playmaker role, and Mathurin, Buddy Hield, and Myles Turner all averaging roughly 17 PPG, the Pacers have become a dynamo offense that may only be one piece (or the development of their existing pieces) away from contending. It remains to be seen how the Pacers’ final record shakes out, but Mathurin is the best longshot pick here at +800. 

2022-2023 Rookie of the Year Prediction: Paolo Banchero | -1000 at DraftKings 

Once a player makes it to minus odds to win an award, it’s all but settled that they’ll be winning that award. Banchero is a shoo-in for the Rookie of the Year award, and unless Benedict Mathurin puts up 30 PPG while leading his team to 15+ wins to close out the year, this debate has been all but settled. While both of them have been exactly what their teams are looking for, Banchero has been asked to do more, and looks to be the future of his team, while Mathurin is still a complementary piece to the true Pacers star, Tyrese Haliburton.