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The best bets and resources to make you more profitable
|Mavericks Win Percentage||24%|
|Suns Win Percentage||76%|
|Game Date & Time||May 4th, 10 p.m. ET|
Going into Game 1 of Mavericks/Suns, it wouldn’t be unrealistic to say that many people were concerned about the Suns, following their 6-game series with the Pelicans. Those concerns were assuaged in Game 1. While the Mavericks, and Luka Doncic in particular (tallying 45/12/8) battled hard throughout the game, the Suns were the clear superior team at almost every position, and had the game handedly under control by the start of halftime.
The big question is whether or not the Mavericks complementary cast can elevate their performances to match the superstar effort from Doncic, or if the 1-seed Suns have just too much talent at too many positions for the Mavericks to compete.
In Game 1, the Suns looked to be the genuine contenders that they showed themselves to be all throughout the regular season. In a game that many thought he would take slowly, Devin Booker tallied 23/9/8 and looked to be just as explosive & controlled on the court as he was prior to his first round hamstring injury.
That said, it wouldn’t be unrealistic to say that he has another level he can reach, due to the recency of his injury. Between Booker and Chris Paul, the Suns certainly have enough guard talent to match Doncic – especially if Doncic is asked to do it all again by himself.
Together, Jalen Brunson & Spencer Dinwiddie combined for only 21 points on 9 of 24 shooting with 7 assists, and for the Mavericks, that simply isn’t enough if they’re going to be playing heavy minutes – the Mavericks guards need to be more efficient & need to take pressure off of Doncic if the Mavericks are to have a shot in this series.
For the Suns, the formula is simple: keep doing what you did in Game 1, because the results spoke for themselves. The Suns shot 50.5% from the field, 39.3% from 3, and a perfect 100% (18 for 18) from the line – if they can recreate that type of efficient production, this is going to be a quick series.
And while the main trio of Booker, CP3, and Deandre Ayton all had highly successful individual performances, each of them has shown that they can elevate themselves above their Game 1 performances, as can the Suns supporting cast.
The simple reality of this series is that the Suns have been the better team all year(and have actually won every meeting for the past three years against the Mavericks) and unless the Mavericks show us otherwise, the Suns will continue to be the educated pick. That said, as they’re obviously the favorites here, we won’t be picking the Suns Moneyline, as there just isn’t enough potential value there.
Instead, we’ll be taking the Suns -7.5, available +112 with FanDuel. We covered on Monday for Game 1 at Suns -6, and if the Suns get up by a lot in Game 2 as they did in Game 1, I don’t expect them to take their foot off the gas as they somewhat did in Game 1.
We’ve had good luck with bonus bets over the past week as well, so we’re going to add one here as well. After the quietly dominant showing he had in Game 1, it’s relatively clear that the Mavericks don’t have the big defense or rebounding to stand up to Ayton if he plays his average number of minutes (29.5) or more. With that in mind, we’ll be taking Deandre Ayton over 29.5 Points & Rebounds, for -115 with DraftKings.
My official pick for Game 2 of Mavericks/Suns is the Suns to cover -7.5.
Pick: Suns -7.5 | +112 at FanDuel
Bonus Pick: Deandre Ayton o29.5 PR | -115 at DraftKings
The Suns have looked to be the better team all year and haven’t lost to the Mavericks in multiple years; I don’t expect that to change while the Suns are at home. I’m taking the Suns to win, 118 – 108