Heat vs. Celtics Game 4 – Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions – May 23rd

Heat vs. Celtics Game 4 Odds

We’re three games into this series, and it’s still tough to judge which of the two teams in this match-up are the superior team. With all things being equal, it seems as if it’s the Miami Heat, but the Game 3 injury to Jimmy Butler and the existing injury to Kyle Lowry calls into question the health of their two primary playmakers as this series progresses.

And while Boston has looked like the better team for the majority of the minutes played between these two rosters in the postseason, they’ve had brief but significant collapses (the third quarter in Game 1, the first quarter in Game 3) that have been too much for them to overcome. 

Heat vs. Celtics Game 4 Betting Preview

As we enter the fourth game of this series, and the second game in Boston, the big question that has hung over this series remains: which of these two teams will remain healthier?

That genuinely seems to be the question that the result of this series will hang on – in Game 3 alone, Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, and Jimmy Butler were all forced to leave the game due to potential injuries, although Butler was the only one of the three to not return. 

The other big question: will the Celtics be able to minimize their turnovers, or will the swarming defense of the Heat continue to give their roster trouble?

In Game 3 in particular, the Heat were able to force the Celtics into a 23 to 8 turnover disparity, and despite the Celtics shooting 16 free throws more than the Heat, those lost possessions for the Celtics were the key to the Heat getting out to an early lead and maintaining that lead, even with the loss of Butler. 

Miami Heat

For the Heat to win another game in Boston, they’ll need to replicate the biggest factors in their success in game 3 – namely, the turnovers and costly errors they forced the Celtics into, and the absolute dominance and aggression shown by Bam Adebayo.

Adebayo hasn’t had the most remarkable playoff run thus far this year, at least not offensively – in 14 playoff games, he’s only exceeded his seasonal average of 19 PPG on five occasions, and his seasonal average in rebounds (10.1) on three occasions.

The major complaint is that Adebayo hasn’t asserted himself, particularly without Kyle Lowry on the floor, but with Lowry’s return came an immediate elevation of Adebayo’s game. He had by far his best game of the playoffs, tallying 31/10/6 with 4 steals and only 1 turnover – considering the loss of Butler after only 20 minutes of playtime, Adebayo’s contribution was key to the Heat stealing Game 3 on the Celtic’s home court, and will remain key to them winning as this series progresses. 

Boston Celtics

For the Celtics, much has been said about the number of quarters they’ve won in this match-up, but the truth remains: they’re currently down 2-1 going into Game 4, and what momentum they built up after a Game 2 domination in Miami was lost going to Boston and coming out flat in the first quarter of Game 3 (while being outscored 39-18 in 12 minutes).

Much like the Heat with Bam, the key for the Celtics will be to get Jayson Tatum going  – despite one of the best playoff games of Jaylen Brown’s career (40/9/1 on 14-of-20 shooting), the Celtics struggled every time that Tatum had the ball, and ultimately lost due to his inefficient (10 points on 3-of-14 shooting) and turnover-heavy (6 turnovers, 3 fouls) night.

If the Celtics want to even this series up, Tatum will need to settle back into his groove as a 25+ PPG scorer and they’ll collectively need to protect the ball much better. 

Heat vs. Celtics Game 4 Betting Pick

While my gut is saying that the Heat will win this, I can’t logically expect the Celtics to lose back-to-back games on their home court, or for Jayson Tatum to have another genuinely horrible night.

While I do expect the Celtics to win the game, I think both teams will come out with the most complete versions of themselves that we’ve seen thus far in this series, and that it’ll be the closest game yet. With that being the case, I’ll be taking the Heat to cover +7, available for -120 with BetRivers.

In the playoffs this year, every time Jayson Tatum has had an off-night and scored under 20 points, he’s bounced back with arguably his most impressive game of each round – I see him doing this again in Game 4. Due to that, I’ll also be recommending a bonus bet of Jayson Tatum Over 38.5 PRA, available for -115 at BetMGM. 

Heat +7 | –120 at BetRivers

Bonus Pick: Tatum o38.5 PRA | -115 at BetMGM

Heat vs. Celtics Game 4 Prediction

The Celtics even this series up before heading back to Miami, 111-105