This NBA TV game tonight between the Denver Nuggets and the Phoenix Suns is going to be a great one.
Both of these teams have remarkable aspects to them. The Suns are having a historic regular season, and even with Chris Paul missing time with a broken thumb, the Suns keep on winning.
On the Nuggets side, they have been missing their 2nd and 3rd best players for pretty much the entirety of the season, but are still sitting with a record of 43-30 and the 6 seed in the west. This winning is all thanks to Nikola Jokic, who followed up his 2021 MVP season with an almost better season this year.
Looking at this game, I was surprised to the Nuggets favored. As of right now the spread sits at Nuggets -3.5, and the over/under is set at 231.5.
Starting with the Suns, it is almost comical when doing research on this team to talk about how good they are. They have the best record in the NBA by a mile, the best net rating by a mile, with the 2nd best offense and the 2nd best defense in the NBA.
Even if you isolate the dates from when Chris Paul has been out, they still have the 3rd best net rating in the NBA and a 12-4 record overall, going 8-2 in their last 10. This team has everything you want- a legit scorer in Devin Booker, versatile and athletic big man in Deandre Ayton, and they are littered with shooters and legit role players as well. And of course, when he’s back healthy, the Point God.
Advanced ratings don’t quite love the Nuggets as much as they do the Suns. Even with Jokic’s heroics, the Nuggets don’t crack the top 10 in net rating- they currently sit at 11th. Overall, without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter jr, this Nuggets team just unfortunately doesn’t have a ton of talent outside Jokic.
The main thing to look for when looking to bet on this matchup is the injury/rest news coming out of Phoenix. The Suns will be on a back to back, after a hard fought victory against the Timberwolves last night, on Wednesday, March 23rd.
As of the time of this writing, no Suns players have been announced out, aside from Chris Paul obviously. With that said, I like the value of getting the Nuggets -3 on WynnBET. Every other book, including the OddsJam Perfect Line, prices this spread at Nuggets -3.5 or -4, so getting them at -3 is a Positive EV play and represents great value.
One player prop I like in this game is backing Nikola Jokic over 26.5 points at -102 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. Despite Phoenix’s number 2 rated defense, Jokic presents a bad matchup for anybody.
He went over this total in the one time he played against the Suns this year, and has gone over this total in 60% of his last 10 games, including 3 of the last 4. This is another Positive EV play, with the OddsJam Perfect Line pricing this no vig fair odds play at -121.
Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns pick:
My NBA betting pick is to take the Nuggets spread in this game at -3. This was bet on WynnBET Sportsbook at -110 odds.
My NBA player prop pick in this game is Nikola Jokic over 26.5 points. This was bet at -102 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Prediction:
My official NBA prediction is that the Nuggets win 121-115.