Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Game 1 – Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions – May 17

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 1 Odds

Celtics vs. Heat Game 1 Betting Preview

The Eastern Conference Finals are set, and they’ll be played between the two best teams in the East by record this year in the Miami Heat (53-29) and the Boston Celtics (51-31). This is a genuine match-up of two of the most talented teams in the East, as both teams have everything needed for a Finals run.

Going into Game 1, I’ll break down each team below and how I think they’ll look in this series – this should be our longest game preview for this series, as both teams have two previous series’ worth of games leading into Tuesday’s Game 1. 

Boston Celtics

Going into these playoffs, the Celtics may have been the hottest team in the league – and what they’ve done in the first two rounds has done nothing to dissuade viewers of that notion. From sweeping the supposed “superteam” Brooklyn Nets in 4 games, to closing out the defending champ Milwaukee Bucks with a dominant Game 7, the 2021-2022 Celtics have been one of the definitive examples of how important is it to peak at the right time and how much influence team chemistry can have on team success.

These Boston Celtics have just about everything you’d look for in a potential championship run: superstar talent (in Jayson Tatum and to a lesser extent, Jaylen Brown), above-average shooters (Grant Williams, Marcus Smart, Payton Pritchard), and a combined cast that has bought in fully defensively (Robert Williams, Al Horford) behind the recent DPOY in Smart.

While the Celtics are led by a rookie coach in Ime Udoka, Udoka has proven that he’s more than competent enough for his new position, and does have a full decade as an assistant coach in the NBA to point to for prior experience.

Can Tatum and Brown both have a great game together?

The biggest knock against this Celtics team is that their star players can be inconsistent, and that, after playing a highly physical 7-game series against the Bucks, they may be gassed or worn down going into Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

While Brown and Tatum (in particular) are bonafide playoff performers who are both averaging 20+ a game in this year’s playoffs, they’ve both had poor games that aren’t normally expected from star players in the playoffs.

Tatum’s game 3 against Milwaukee stands out, when he put up only 10/1/3 on 4-of-19 shooting. He obviously adjusted for the remainder of the series (putting up 30, 34, 46, and 23 in subsequent games) but it’s worth noting that it is possible to take him out of a game with the right combination of heavy switching, different looks, and physical defense.

If he’s forced to make jumpers and not given a path to the rim, Tatum can get frustrated – unfortunately for most teams, that’s not an easy thing to accomplish, although the Heat do have the personnel to give it a try. 

Miami Heat

Much of the latter half of this season was spent calling the Heat a “fake 1 seed”, a moniker that I personally felt was only very slightly deserved – while I didn’t think they had quite the same level of firepower and consistency as the Bucks, they were, at the very worst, the third best team in the East (with the Bucks and Celtics standing as a very close 1-2).

In the playoffs thus far, they’ve proven they’re deserving of their status as a 1-seed, after beating the Trae Young-led Hawks in 5 games (with their only loss coming by 1 point) and the Joel Embiid/James Harden-led Sixers in 6 games (with three of their four wins coming by double digits).

The Heat have been one of the most consistent teams in the East over the past 15 years, having made the playoffs in 11 of the past 15 years. Even with tumultuous roster turnover and multiple high level players coming and going at different points (with Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh being the most obvious examples), the Heat have rebuilt and reloaded for playoff runs time after time, and this season is no exception.

While the Heat may have had the better record this year, they’re a bit less balanced player-to-player compared to the Celtics. The Celtics have a great mix of both offense and defense from most of their roster, the Heat have more specialists. While Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, and Kyle Lowry are highly talented all-around players, the Heat have to regularly hide Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson on defense (to such an extent that Robinson has been getting DNPs in the playoffs) and have needed to compensate for the lack of consistent offense from PJ Tucker and Gabe Vincent.

Can Oladipo be the key?

That said, the Heat have a wild-card in Victor Oladipo – after only playing 8 regular season games this year, Oladipo has already matched his regular season game total (with 8 playoff games played) and is averaging 11/4/2 over 25.6 MPG. While these aren’t eye-popping numbers, it’s production that the Heat missed out on for almost the entire year that they can now count on when they need a veteran player to generate offense off the bench. 

When it comes to the coaching match-up, while the Celtics have it good, the Heat have it great – Erik Spoelstra is one of the most highly rated coaches in the NBA, and his record of success with different rosters and star players is proof of that. 

There’s a lot to take into consideration for our Game 1 pick, but the biggest factor for me is the lack of rest for the Celtics and the comparatively long rest for the Heat – as the Heat are the older team on average, their 5 days of rest should be hugely beneficial for them as they take on a Celtics team on only 2 days of rest.

With that in mind, I’ll be taking the Heat Moneyline, available at -125 at BetMGM. I won’t have a strong opinion of who will win this series until at least two games have been played, but I do think the Heat will come out strong and take Game 1 on their home court. 

Celtics vs. Heat Game 1 Betting Pick

My official pick for Game 1 of Celtics/Heat is the Heat Moneyline – this is available for -125 with BetMGM.

Pick: Heat Moneyline | –125 at BetMGM

Celtics vs. Heat Game 1 Prediction

The #1 seed Miami Heat will start this series off on their home court with a win, 109 – 98.