Best NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks, & Predictions Today / Tonight

Best NBA Player Props – June 16, 2022

On the heels of an incredible game from Andrew Wiggins, the Warriors took a commanding 3-2 lead in the series. Now, with the championship on the line, we head back to Boston for game 6 at the TD Garden.

Here is one of our favorite player props for Thursday night’s matchup:

Robert Williams Total Rebounds: Over 8.5 | +115 at DraftKings

June 16 | 9 p.m. ET

Robert Williams, AKA Timelord, has quietly become essential to the Celtics defense, and they are going to need him if they want to have any chance at winning this series. He somehow has the best plus/minus differential of all the Celtics players!

Williams has been an interesting player in these playoffs overall. He returned mid-way through the Nets series as he was covering from knee surgery, but that same knee has plagued him at times these playoffs.

He missed four games in the Bucks series and one game in the Heat series, but had never played more than 28 minutes until the NBA Finals.

With that said, he seems to have finally found some comfort in that knee, as he has now played over 30 minutes in back-to-back games.

Unsurprisingly, as he has played more minutes he has also gone over this rebound prop in two of his last three games, with his only miss ending with exactly 8 rebounds.

His work on the offensive glass has been huge for the Celtics, as they have, at times, been able to manhandle the Warriors with their sheer size and aggression.

In general, Williams is an athletic freak with a high vertical, and is 6’9 with a 7’6 wingspan, so it isn’t a surprise that he has been able to secure more rebounds as he gets healthier and healthier.

Taking Williams to go over 8.5 rebounds is essentially a wager on his importance to this Celtics team, and because of that having his playing time continue to increase, as long as his knee holds up.

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Best NBA Player Props – June 13, 2022

Stephen Curry and the Warriors evened the series with a Game 4 win in Boston on Friday night. Now tied at two games apiece, the series shifts back to San Francisco for a pivotal Game 5 at Chase Center. 

Here is one of our favorite player props for Monday night’s matchup:

Jayson Tatum Total Rebounds: Over 6.5 | -124 at FanDuel

June 13 | 9 p.m. ET

Tatum exploded for 11 rebounds in Game 4 to go with 23 points and 6 assists. In the previous two games, he had pulled down exactly 6 in each, narrowly missing the over 6.5.

I expect another strong effort on the boards from the Celtics’ star on Monday, especially while playing increased minutes because of the importance of this game.

The presence of Robert Williams helps each Celtic on the floor rebound. While Williams grabs a fair share of his own, he is so good at boxing out the Warriors’ bigs and allowing the wings like Tatum and Brown to crash the boards with nobody around. 

If Williams plays like he has so far in this series, Tatum will have lots of space to rebound Warriors misses.

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Best NBA Player Props – June 10, 2022

After a fantastic performance from the Boston Celtics propelled them to a 2-1 series lead, the Golden State Warriors must bounce back on Friday in order to send the series back to San Francisco all tied up.

Here are a couple of player props directly from the OddsJam positive expected value page:

Kevon Looney Assists: Under 2.5 | -118 at FanDuel

9 p.m. ET

In his last ten games, Looney is averaging just 1.8 assists per game. On the road this season, he’s averaging just 2 assists per game. He only played 17 minutes in Game 3, and if that minute pattern holds I don’t expect him to get three or more assists like he did in Game 3. 

The Warriors’ backs are against the wall and Steve Kerr should keep the ball in Stephen Curry’s hands as much as possible, letting him do both the shooting and distributing. 

Most sportsbooks have this bet around -140 to -150, so there’s a lot of value on FanDuel here.

Andrew Wiggins Made Threes: Under 1.5 | +100 at FanDuel

9 p.m. ET

This is another pick with a large discrepancy between FanDuel and the other books, which aren’t giving us better than -120 odds. 

Wiggins has made multiple threes in just two of his last six games, including a 1-6 performance from deep in Game 3. 

He’s just 5-16 from beyond the arc in the series. I expect Curry and Klay Thompson to take the majority of the threes when Wiggins is in the game with them. It’s almost a must-win for the Warriors, and they’ve got to ride or die with the Splash Brothers. 

Best NBA Player Props – June 8, 2022

After the Celtics and Warriors split the pair of games in San Francisco, the NBA Finals now shift across the country to Boston for Games 3 and 4. 

The Warriors have won a road game in every single playoff series under Steve Kerr, and the Celtics have struggled at home in the playoffs, posting only a 5-4 record thus far. 

That being said, the atmosphere at TD Garden will be incredible with the Celtics hosting their first Finals since 2010. 

Jaylen Brown Total Rebounds: Over 6.5 | +100 at FanDuel

9 p.m. ET

Brown pulled down 7 rebounds in Game 1 and 6 in Game 2, but the latter came in just 28 minutes of action as the Warriors pulled away. Both teams’ stars spent a significant portion of the fourth quarter on the bench.

In the Eastern Conference Finals against the Heat, Brown averaged over 7 rebounds per game, and he averaged nearly 7.5 in the second round series win over Milwaukee. 

The Warriors obviously shoot a lot of three-pointers which create long rebounds, so even as a primarily perimeter defender I still see Brown getting plenty of opportunities on the boards in Game 3. 

Al Horford Total Points + Rebounds + Assists: Under 23.5 | -102 at FanDuel

9 p.m. ET

Horford absolutely went off in Game 1 of the series going 6-8 from beyond the arc en route to a 26 point performance. 

The Warriors clearly made an adjustment on the defensive end. Yes, Horford had a hot shooting night in Game 1, but his 2 total points in Game 2 was not due to a cold night from deep. 

He didn’t even get a three-point shot off. Horford finished the game with 8 rebounds and 1 assists to go with the two points on 1-4 shooting. 

I don’t think Game 3 will see either extreme that Games 1 and 2 had, but with the Warriors having clearly made an adjustment after getting burned, Horford won’t be getting too many open looks.