UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs Rozenstruik Best Bets, Picks and Predictions – June 4, 2022

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs Rozenstruik pits the technical, voluminous striking of Alexander Volkov against the slugging, one-shot-knockout power of Jairzinho Rozenstruik. These three bets equip bettors with more than a puncher’s chance to land a fistful of dollars.

Two-Leg Parlay: Erin Blanchfield vs. JJ Aldrich and Felicia Herrig vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz Pick: Both Go the Distance | -105 at DraftKings

Start time: 1:00 p.m. ET 

Erin Blanchfield has never been involved in a finish during her seven bouts within a noteworthy organization. However, she did finish a record-setting seven takedowns in her last fight. JJ Aldrich’s timid taekwondo usage ensures her status of never finishing an opponent and only getting knocked out once in 10 UFC fights will continue. 

Regarding the other matchup, Herrig’s lengthy MMA career includes just one knockout win obtained over a decade ago. She has never been knocked out in 23 fights and suffered her first career submission loss in her last fight at the hands and legs of Jessica Penne. Kowalkiewicz’s only finishes arrived extremely early in her career.

She hasn’t found a knockout or submission win in over eight years. She doesn’t lose by these methods much either. She failed to last the distance against Jessica Andrade — whose explosive power surged her to  UFC gold — and one of the best WMMA ground grapplers ever Cláudia Gadelha. Herrig belongs to a lower tier. 

Dana White lies, but MMA numbers don’t. These statistics scream to take the parlay at an essentially even line.

Felicia Herrig vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz  Pick: Kowalkiewicz by Decision | +150 at DraftKings

Start time: Approximately 2:30 p.m. ET 

This fight rematches veterans. Karolina Kowalkiewicz won the first meeting. Felicia Herrig battles two formidable opponents this time: Kowalkiewicz and ring rust. Saturday marks Herrig’s first fight in nearly two years. Furthermore, this is only her second fight in over three years. Kowalkiewicz doubles the output.

Inactivity breeds hesitance and a lack of the natural rhythm necessary to outpoint opponents. Kowalkiewicz proved victorious several years ago when both were firing on all cylinders. Rust deteriorates fighters into a gun-shy nature that will play a big factor in history repeating itself. 

Oddsmakers conflate Herrig’s bigger name with a bigger chance to win here. She shouldn’t be the slight favorite on a near-even line and the certainty of a decision that will soon come to light sweetens the taste of gambling victory when wagering on this outcome.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Alexander Volkov  Pick: Rozenstruik by Knockout/TKO | +200 at DraftKings

Start time: Approximately 7 p.m. ET 

Danger lurks in every corner and second of the Octagon when Rozenstruik marches on the prowl. He owns the second-fastest knockout in UFC heavyweight history and he beat the clock by taking out Augusto Sakai with one second left in the first round. More notably on the opposite end, he made MMA legend Alistair Overeem resemble a Leatherface victim with four seconds left after being dominated the entirety of the fight.

Volkov’s busy output at his considerable size and length tires him in the late rounds. Flawed conditioning resulted in a tragic letdown against record-setting knockout artist Derrick Lewis, who planted Volkonovski on the canvas with 11 seconds left in a lopsided three-round contest in favor of the loser. Volkov gassed by the end of his more recent losses to Curtis Blaydes and Ciryl Greene as well, albeit those two are at a higher fighting level with vastly different styles than Rozenstruik.

Regardless, Rozenstruik’s persistent power and ability to patiently pick his countershots plays well in the game of hunting down Volkov and hitting the chin target. It only takes one second and strike to end this contest and the stylistic conditions align. The downside of this bet is that Volkov weaponizes kickboxing range better than arguably any current heavyweight and Rozenstruik’s comparably slow speed, willingness to wait for shots and reach discrepancy might allow Volkov to stick and move. 

Technique isn’t on your side, but time certainly is and I think the clock will strike midnight on many analysts who think Volkov cruising to a decision is a certainty.