Sharp MLB Picks for Tuesday: 4 Best MLB Bets for September 20, Including Astros vs. Rays

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Andrew CunninghamSeptember 20, 2022 at 04:07 PM

We went 3-1 yesterday to be in that sweet sweet money! Starting today, we’re going to be keeping track of our profits and talking in units. With that being said, let’s get into our sharpest picks for Tuesday and have a 4-0 day!

My Unit Size
$50
Check Out How to Calculate Unit Size Below

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Pick: 1U Michael Grove Over 3.5 Ks | -135 at Caesars

4:07 p.m. ET

Let’s kick things off with a bet on Michael Grove’s K line. Grove has only had two recent starts, however in both of those starts he threw 4 Ks. Tonight, he faces off against a lowly Diamondbacks lineup in which he should 100% be able to take care of business and rack up the Ks. I like this a lot, but not enough to hammer it so I’ll be putting 1 unit down here.

Player Strikeouts

Red Sox vs. Reds Pick: 1U Spencer Steer Over 0.5 Bases | -155 at DraftKings

6:40 p.m. ET

It feels like a player prop kind of day so let’s keep with them as we look at Spencer Steer’s total bases. Steer struggled a bit in his last series against the Cardinals but he will be looking to turn that around during this Red Sox series.

Luckily for him, he is going against a 1-6, 5.20 ERA pitcher in Brayan Bello. He should very easily get over 0.5 total bases tonight. Since he struggled in his last series, I am only putting 1 unit down here.

Astros vs. Rays Pick: 2U Shane McClanahan Over 4.5 Ks | -148 at BetRivers

6:40 p.m. ET

This line right here is an absolute gift. Shane McClanahan, in his last 10 starts, has only not thrown 5+ Ks three times. Tonight his K line is set at 4.5 and I am hammering the over with 2 units.

Pro tip: Use BetRivers 20% MLB profit boost (max $25) for the first 0.5 units, then put the other 1.5 units on the line non-boosted.

Player Strikeouts

Pirates vs. Yankees Pick: 1U Nestor Cortes Over 5.5 Ks | -106 at FanDuel

7:05 p.m. ET

Yet another gift of a line for us tonight. Nestor Cortes is streaky in the K department, but when he is on he is on. Tonight he is going against a Pirates lineup that loves to swing — and loves to miss even more. He should blow this over out of the water. Since he is streaky, though, I am only putting 1 unit down here.

Player Strikeouts

Bet Slips for Today

How do I Calculate my Unit Size?

For the most basic bettors, it’s advisable to make your units about 1% of your bankroll, and certainly not more than 2%. So a bettor with a $5,000 bankroll should have units of about $50. That doesn’t mean every bet has to be $50, but it’s the starting point to base your bet sizes on.

There are many strategies for managing your bankroll, but if you are simply betting for some entertainment or have the tiniest of edges, you may place half a unit on a bet, or $25. A base bet would be $50, and then for plays you love and see a bigger edge in you might go to 2% or 3% of your bankroll, which would be two or three units.

A good way to calculate how many units to put on a bet is to use the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a system that bases the amount of your bankroll to put on each bet based on the odds given, and the fair win probability of the bet. You can use OddsJam’s Kelly Criterion Calculator to find your ideal bet size using this method.

Using this calculator, say there’s a bet with a 55% chance of winning and you’re able to get -110 odds. With the Kelly Multiplier set at one, it tells you to risk 5.5% of your bankroll on that one bet. Most bettors aren’t comfortable risking that much of their bankroll at a time, so feel free to set the Kelly multiplier at a fraction of one that you are more comfortable with.

When using the Kelly Criterion calculator, whatever you decide on just remember to always keep the Kelly multiplier consistent across all your bets.



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