Sharp MLB Picks for Tuesday: 3 Best MLB Bets for September 27, Including Diamondbacks vs. Astros

Marlins vs. Mets Pick: 1U Pablo Lopez Over 4.5 Ks | -125 at DraftKings

7:10 p.m. ET

Pablo Lopez is pretty good at this strikeout thing lately and he has managed to get his ERA back under 4. He’s going against a New York Mets lineup that can be tough to handle.

The Mets are in the bottom five in terms of strikeout percentage, but they average over 7 strikeouts per game. This is definitely a 1 unit play, but it’s still solid.

Rockies vs. Giants Pick: 1U Total Runs Over 7 | -115 at DraftKings

9:45 p.m. ET

Combined, the Rockies and Giants average 9 runs per game. German Marquez also loves to give up runs, sitting on an ERA above 5. The OddsJam Perfect Line says this is highly probable and we get slight value at DraftKings — lock it in!

Diamondbacks vs. Astros Pick: 2U Lance McCullers Jr. Over 6.5 Ks | -118 at FanDuel

8:10 p.m. ET

Arizona sits in the middle of the pack in terms of K percentage in the league. However, in their last three games, the Diamondbacks are averaging 11 strikeouts per game! The end-of-September slump is real and it’s got a tight hold on the Diamondbacks.

Unfortunately for them, they are going against a great pitcher in Lance McCullers who has been on a tear in September. Two units on this one to wrap up the day.

How do I Calculate my Unit Size?

For the most basic bettors, it’s advisable to make your units about 1% of your bankroll, and certainly not more than 2%. So a bettor with a $5,000 bankroll should have units of about $50. That doesn’t mean every bet has to be $50, but it’s the starting point to base your bet sizes on.

There are many strategies for managing your bankroll, but if you are simply betting for some entertainment or have the tiniest of edges, you may place half a unit on a bet, or $25. A base bet would be $50, and then for plays you love and see a bigger edge in you might go to 2% or 3% of your bankroll, which would be two or three units.

A good way to calculate how many units to put on a bet is to use the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a system that bases the amount of your bankroll to put on each bet based on the odds given, and the fair win probability of the bet. You can use OddsJam’s Kelly Criterion Calculator to find your ideal bet size using this method.

Using this calculator, say there’s a bet with a 55% chance of winning and you’re able to get -110 odds. With the Kelly Multiplier set at one, it tells you to risk 5.5% of your bankroll on that one bet. Most bettors aren’t comfortable risking that much of their bankroll at a time, so feel free to set the Kelly multiplier at a fraction of one that you are more comfortable with.

When using the Kelly Criterion calculator, whatever you decide on just remember to always keep the Kelly multiplier consistent across all your bets.