Sharp MLB Picks for Thursday: 3 Best MLB Bets for September 22, Including Astros vs. Orioles

We bounced back yesterday with a convincing 3-1 day! Zack Wheeler did not get his 5 Ks, but he was pulled in the fifth inning. Always frustrating, but that is life in sports betting. Let’s use today to keep building that momentum.

Mariners vs. Athletics Pick: 1U Adrian Martinez Over 3.5 Ks | -160 at DraftKings

3:35 p.m. ET

Adrian Martinez is a young pitcher going for the Athletics tonight. Fair warning, we are not here to bet on his ability to keep runners from crossing homeplate. He has a 5+ ERA. However, in his last 10 outings he has thrown 4+ Ks five times. He has also thrown 3 Ks three times. 4 is this pitcher’s number and he is pretty consistent in hitting it! Add in the fact that all the books are in agreement here and we have ourselves a 1 unit bet.

Cardinals vs. Padres Pick: 2U Jose Azocar Over 0.5 Bases | -145 at DraftKings

4:10 p.m. ET

Jose Azocar is on a tear with a seven game-hitting streak. Now he plays at home against a Cardinals team (as much as I hate to say it) that struggles mightily with pitching. In his last three outings, Flaherty has given up 6 hits in each and only gone 5 innings once. Against a stacked team like the Padres, I expect this to continue giving Azocar a solid chance to get a hit off of Flaherty and an even better chance to take advantage of the bullpen.

Astros vs. Orioles Pick: 2U Justin Verlander Over 5.5 Ks | -132 at BetRivers

7:05 p.m. ET

The only team that strikes out less than the Houston Astros is the Cleveland Guardians, so we’re staying away from Baltimore’s starting pitcher here. However, Houston does have a strikeout master in Justin Verlander. The Orioles sit 13th in league strikeout rate as of today and are coming off of a tough series in Detroit. September fatigue looks to be setting in, but Verlander is rolling.

Bet Slips for Today

How do I Calculate my Unit Size?

For the most basic bettors, it’s advisable to make your units about 1% of your bankroll, and certainly not more than 2%. So a bettor with a $5,000 bankroll should have units of about $50. That doesn’t mean every bet has to be $50, but it’s the starting point to base your bet sizes on.

There are many strategies for managing your bankroll, but if you are simply betting for some entertainment or have the tiniest of edges, you may place half a unit on a bet, or $25. A base bet would be $50, and then for plays you love and see a bigger edge in you might go to 2% or 3% of your bankroll, which would be two or three units.

A good way to calculate how many units to put on a bet is to use the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a system that bases the amount of your bankroll to put on each bet based on the odds given, and the fair win probability of the bet. You can use OddsJam’s Kelly Criterion Calculator to find your ideal bet size using this method.

Using this calculator, say there’s a bet with a 55% chance of winning and you’re able to get -110 odds. With the Kelly Multiplier set at one, it tells you to risk 5.5% of your bankroll on that one bet. Most bettors aren’t comfortable risking that much of their bankroll at a time, so feel free to set the Kelly multiplier at a fraction of one that you are more comfortable with.

When using the Kelly Criterion calculator, whatever you decide on just remember to always keep the Kelly multiplier consistent across all your bets.