Our MLB expert breaks down his top play and prediction for today’s slate of games below! Read on to find out the strikeout prop @JayGotPlays is backing tonight.
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians Pick: Jon Gray Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -120 at FanDuel
7:10 p.m. ET
Another day, another “Best Bet.” Today, we target a play that is probably my favorite line I’ve seen all week.
I’m excited for this game and even more excited to cash this ticket. Let’s dive in!
Jon Gray finds himself with a 26% K rate this season, and the hardest matchup of them all on Monday night. The Cleveland Guardians only strike out at a 15% rate against RHP.
Yes, you read that correctly. I didn’t believe it when I first saw it. This K rate is evidently the lowest strikeout rate against RHP in the entire MLB.
Gray has gone under 4.5 strikeouts in five of eight starts (63%) this season. He is coming off a season-high 12 strikeouts against the Rays; however, it’s important to note that Tampa strikes out the third-most in the MLB against RHP.
Gray resorts to his slider a lot. Only two hitters in the projected Cleveland lineup whiff above 30% against the pitch, which is crazy.
He throws his changeup pretty exclusively to lefties, and zero lefties in Cleveland’s lineup whiff above 30% vs. the pitch. The last six RHP to start against the Guardians have failed to reach 5 strikeouts.
This line is very generous and it feels as if Vegas did not account for Cleveland’s ability to keep the ball in play. Let’s cash this ticket!
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