MLB Top Pitchers 6/17/24

For today’s MLB DFS slate, we’ve identified the top pitchers and a few under-the-radar plays that can give your lineup the edge. Each pick is backed by detailed statistical analysis and insights into their matchups. Let’s dive into the details.

Top MLB DFS Pitchers

1. Paul Skenes (PIT) vs. Cincinnati Reds
   
   • Insights:
     • Statistics: Skenes boasts an impressive K% of 38.5% against left-handed hitters and 32.3% against right-handed hitters, indicating his ability to rack up strikeouts. His xwOBA (.226 vs. LHB, .285 vs. RHB) and ISO (.082 vs. LHB, .164 vs. RHB) showcase his dominance.
     • Matchup: The Reds lineup has several high strikeout hitters, including Elly De La Cruz (32.2% K rate) and Will Benson (35.6% K rate), which further enhances Skenes’ strikeout potential.
     • Ballpark Factor: PNC Park is pitcher-friendly, which should help Skenes limit runs and keep the ball in the park.

1. Sonny Gray (STL) vs. Miami Marlins
   
   • Insights:
     • Statistics: Gray’s K% is solid (28.4% vs. RHB, 24.6% vs. LHB), and he maintains a low ISO (.094 vs. RHB, .109 vs. LHB), indicating his ability to suppress power. His overall xwOBA (.290 vs. LHB, .294 vs. RHB) reflects his effectiveness against both sides of the plate.
     • Matchup: The Marlins lineup has high strikeout rates, particularly Jake Burger (27.9% K rate) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (28.2% K rate). Gray’s ability to exploit these weaknesses makes him a top option.
     • Ballpark Factor: LoanDepot Park is also pitcher-friendly, which should help Gray in terms of limiting runs and potential home runs.
       
2. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) vs. San Diego Padres
   
   • Insights:
     • Statistics: Sanchez has a K% of 29.3% against left-handed hitters and 21.0% against right-handed hitters. His xwOBA (.211 vs. LHB, .326 vs. RHB) and ISO (.064 vs. LHB, .158 vs. RHB) indicate his capability to dominate.
     • Matchup: The Padres lineup includes several hitters who struggle against left-handed pitching, such as Jake Cronenworth (22.2% K rate) and Luis Arraez (11.1% K rate but lower power). This matchup favors Sanchez, especially against the left-handed heavy Padres.
     • Ballpark Factor: Citizens Bank Park can be neutral to slightly favorable for pitchers, and Sanchez’s matchup here makes him a compelling option.

Under-the-Radar Plays

1. Braxton Garrett (MIA) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
   
   • Insights:
     • Statistics: Garrett has a K% of 24.9% against left-handed hitters and 22.6% against right-handed hitters, with an xwOBA of .300 and .337 respectively. His ISO numbers (.105 vs. LHB, .187 vs. RHB) show his ability to limit power.
     • Matchup: The Cardinals lineup has several hitters with high strikeout rates against lefties, such as Nolan Gorman (31.3% K rate). Garrett’s ability to exploit these matchups makes him a sneaky good play.
     • Ballpark Factor: LoanDepot Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions should further enhance Garrett’s value.

1. Max Fried (ATL) vs. Detroit Tigers
   
   • Insights:
     • Statistics: Fried’s K% is 24.6% against left-handed hitters and 23.9% against right-handed hitters. His xwOBA (.317 vs. LHB, .265 vs. RHB) and ISO (.130 vs. LHB, .079 vs. RHB) suggest his effectiveness in limiting hard contact.
     • Matchup: The Tigers lineup has several hitters who struggle against left-handed pitching, including Riley Greene (30.4% K rate) and Ryan Kreidler (30.8% K rate). Fried’s ability to exploit these matchups makes him a strong play.
     • Ballpark Factor: Truist Park can be neutral to slightly favorable for pitchers, and Fried’s skill set should play well in this matchup.

Conclusion

These pitchers offer a mix of high-upside plays and strategic under-the-radar options to give you an edge in your DFS contests today. Leveraging pitchers who face lineups with high strikeout rates and exploitable weaknesses is key to maximizing your DFS lineup potential. Good luck!