MLB Top Pitchers 5/21/24 Early Slate

Welcome to today’s MLB DFS Top Pitchers preview! We’ll highlight the top DFS pitchers for today’s slate, providing key insights and statistical analysis to explain why each player is a top play.

We’ll also spotlight a few under-the-radar options that could provide value. Let’s dive in!

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Top DFS Pitchers

1. Joe Ryan (MIN) vs. Washington Nationals

Nationals Park

Key Insights:

• 2024 Stats vs. LHB: .261 xwOBA, .127 ISO, 26.5% K rate
• 2024 Stats vs. RHB: .309 xwOBA, .258 ISO, 31.0% K rate
• Washington’s Weakness: 19.1% K rate vs. RHP, .265 xwOBA

Why Ryan is a Top Play:

• Strikeout Upside: With a 31.0% K rate against righties, Ryan has significant strikeout potential against a Nationals lineup that can struggle against quality right-handed pitching.
• Consistency: Ryan’s ability to limit hard contact and maintain a high strikeout rate provides a reliable DFS floor.
• Favorable Matchup: The Nationals have a low xwOBA against right-handed pitching, enhancing Ryan’s potential for a dominant outing.

2. Logan Webb (SF) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

PNC Park

Key Insights:

• 2024 Stats vs. LHB: .302 xwOBA, .109 ISO, 23.2% K rate
• 2024 Stats vs. RHB: .312 xwOBA, .121 ISO, 20.5% K rate
• Pittsburgh’s Weakness: 23.7% K rate vs. RHP, .281 xwOBA

Why Webb is a Top Play:

• Groundball Specialist: Webb’s 63.1% groundball rate against lefties and 60.0% against righties make him adept at limiting damage.
• Strikeout Potential: Webb’s ability to generate strikeouts, especially against a Pirates team with a high strikeout rate, provides upside.
• Pitcher-Friendly Park: PNC Park’s dimensions favor pitchers, enhancing Webb’s chances for a strong performance.

3. Ranger Suarez (PHI) vs. Texas Rangers

Citizens Bank Park

Key Insights:

• 2024 Stats vs. LHB: .229 xwOBA, .133 ISO, 22.2% K rate
• 2024 Stats vs. RHB: .314 xwOBA, .129 ISO, 23.6% K rate
• Texas’s Weakness: 22.8% K rate vs. LHP, .346 xwOBA

Why Suarez is a Top Play:

• Dominance Against Lefties: Suarez’s ability to shut down left-handed hitters (.229 xwOBA) reduces the threat from Texas’s left-handed bats.
• Strikeout Upside: With a 23.6% K rate against righties, Suarez has the potential to rack up strikeouts against a Rangers lineup with swing-and-miss tendencies.
• Control: Suarez’s low walk rate (2.2% vs. LHB, 8.8% vs. RHB) helps minimize baserunners and potential scoring opportunities.

4. Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs. San Diego Padres

Great American Ball Park

Key Insights:

• 2024 Stats vs. LHB: .224 xwOBA, .074 ISO, 29.7% K rate
• 2024 Stats vs. RHB: .312 xwOBA, .221 ISO, 23.0% K rate
• San Diego’s Weakness: 15.1% K rate vs. LHP, .336 xwOBA

Why Abbott is a Top Play:

• Strikeout Potential: Abbott’s 29.7% K rate against lefties and 23.0% against righties provide significant strikeout upside.
• Limiting Hard Contact: Abbott’s ability to keep left-handed hitters in check with a low xwOBA and ISO makes him a solid play despite facing a potent Padres lineup.
• Home Field Advantage: While Great American Ball Park is hitter-friendly, Abbott’s skills can mitigate the risk, making him a valuable DFS option.

5. Zack Littell (TB) vs. Boston Red Sox

Tropicana Field

Key Insights:

• 2024 Stats vs. LHB: .303 xwOBA, .170 ISO, 22.3% K rate
• 2024 Stats vs. RHB: .313 xwOBA, .136 ISO, 19.2% K rate
• Boston’s Weakness: 29.1% K rate vs. RHP, .282 xwOBA

Why Littell is a Top Play:

• Pitcher-Friendly Venue: Tropicana Field’s dimensions favor pitchers, enhancing Littell’s chances for a strong outing.
• Strikeout Matchup: The Red Sox’s high strikeout rate against right-handed pitching provides Littell with ample opportunities to accumulate strikeouts.
• Control: Littell’s ability to limit walks and hard contact adds to his appeal as a DFS play.

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Under-the-Radar Plays

1. Trevor Rogers (MIA) vs. Milwaukee Brewers

loanDepot Park

Key Insights:

• 2024 Stats vs. LHB: .301 xwOBA, .179 ISO, 27.0% K rate
• 2024 Stats vs. RHB: .354 xwOBA, .166 ISO, 18.0% K rate
• Milwaukee’s Weakness: 28.5% K rate vs. LHP, .339 xwOBA

Why Rogers is a Sneaky Play:

• Strikeout Upside: Rogers’ high strikeout rate against lefties provides upside against a Brewers team that struggles against left-handed pitching.
• Favorable Matchup: Milwaukee’s high strikeout rate and low xwOBA against lefties make Rogers a solid contrarian play.
• Pitcher-Friendly Park: loanDepot Park’s dimensions help mitigate Rogers’ risk, enhancing his potential for a quality start.

2. Robert Gasser (MIL) vs. Miami Marlins

loanDepot Park

Key Insights:

• 2024 Stats vs. LHB: .000 xwOBA, 40.0% K rate
• 2024 Stats vs. RHB: .251 xwOBA, 6.3% K rate
• Miami’s Weakness: 29.7% K rate vs. LHP, .404 xwOBA

Why Gasser is a Sneaky Play:

• High Strikeout Rate: Gasser’s small sample size shows a high strikeout rate against lefties, providing potential upside.
• Miami’s Struggles: The Marlins’ high strikeout rate against left-handed pitching makes Gasser an intriguing play.
• Value Play: As an under-the-radar option, Gasser can provide value in DFS lineups, especially in GPPs.

Conclusion

Today’s MLB DFS slate features several top pitchers with favorable matchups. Joe Ryan, Logan Webb, Ranger Suarez, Andrew Abbott, and Zack Littell lead the way with their strikeout potential and ability to limit hard contact. Don’t overlook under-the-radar options like Trevor Rogers and Robert Gasser, who could provide significant value. Use these insights to build a winning DFS lineup. Good luck!