MLB Top Hitters 5/21/24 Early Slate

Welcome to today’s MLB DFS Top Hitters preview! We’ll dive into the top five DFS hitters for today’s slate, providing key insights and statistical analysis to explain why each player is a top play.

We’ll also highlight a few under-the-radar plays that could give your lineup an edge. Let’s get started!

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Top 5 DFS Hitters

1. Bryce Harper (PHI) vs. Jon Gray (RHP)

Citizens Bank Park

Key Insights:

• 2024 Stats vs. RHP: .407 xwOBA, .218 ISO, 16.1% BB rate
• Jon Gray’s Weakness: 23.4% K rate vs. RHB, .109 ISO vs. RHB

Why Harper is a Top Play:

• Elite Plate Discipline: Harper’s ability to draw walks and avoid strikeouts against righties gives him a high floor.
• Power Potential: With a .218 ISO, Harper has the power to go deep against Gray, who has struggled to contain left-handed power hitters.
• Consistent Production: Harper’s .407 xwOBA highlights his ability to consistently get on base and produce runs.

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP)

Great American Ball Park

Key Insights:

• 2024 Stats vs. LHP: .400 xwOBA, .187 ISO, 20.9% K rate
• Andrew Abbott’s Weakness: 23.0% K rate vs. RHB, .221 ISO vs. RHB

Why Tatis Jr. is a Top Play:

• Versatile Skill Set: Tatis Jr. excels against left-handed pitching, combining power and speed to be a constant threat.
• Favorable Matchup: Abbott’s struggles against right-handed hitters play into Tatis Jr.’s strengths.
• High Ceiling: With the potential for home runs, stolen bases, and multiple hits, Tatis Jr. offers a sky-high ceiling for DFS.

3. Jorge Soler (SF) vs. Martin Perez (LHP)

PNC Park

Key Insights:

• 2024 Stats vs. LHP: .436 xwOBA, .362 ISO, 13.5% BB rate
• Martin Perez’s Weakness: 16.1% K rate vs. RHB, .174 ISO vs. RHB

Why Soler is a Top Play:

• Lefty Masher: Soler’s .436 xwOBA and .362 ISO vs. LHP show his dominance against left-handed pitching.
• Power Threat: Soler’s power makes him a constant home run threat, especially against a pitcher like Perez who allows a high ISO to right-handed hitters.
• Run Production: Soler’s ability to drive in runs adds significant value to his DFS profile.

4. Manny Machado (SD) vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP)

Great American Ball Park

Key Insights:

• 2024 Stats vs. LHP: .360 xwOBA, .199 ISO, 10.4% BB rate
• Andrew Abbott’s Weakness: 23.0% K rate vs. RHB, .221 ISO vs. RHB

Why Machado is a Top Play:

• Consistent Performance: Machado’s ability to get on base and hit for power against lefties makes him a reliable DFS option.
• Matchup Advantage: Abbott’s high ISO allowed to right-handed hitters aligns perfectly with Machado’s power profile.
• High Floor: Machado’s combination of power, on-base skills, and run production provides a solid floor for DFS.

5. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) vs. Jon Gray (RHP)

Citizens Bank Park

Key Insights:

• 2024 Stats vs. RHP: .365 xwOBA, .276 ISO, 17.5% BB rate
• Jon Gray’s Weakness: 23.4% K rate vs. RHB, .109 ISO vs. RHB

Why Schwarber is a Top Play:

• Power and Patience: Schwarber’s high ISO and BB rate against righties make him a dual threat for home runs and on-base points.
• Favorable Park Factors: Citizens Bank Park is known for being hitter-friendly, enhancing Schwarber’s power potential.
• Consistency: Schwarber’s ability to produce in multiple ways (walks, home runs) provides a steady DFS option.

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Under-the-Radar Plays

1. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP)

Great American Ball Park

Key Insights:

• 2024 Stats vs. RHP: .348 xwOBA, .237 ISO, 10.4% BB rate
• Joe Musgrove’s Weakness: 20.4% K rate vs. RHB, .202 ISO vs. RHB

Why De La Cruz is a Sneaky Play:

• High Upside: De La Cruz’s combination of power and speed gives him a high ceiling.
• Favorable Conditions: Great American Ball Park enhances his power potential against Musgrove’s vulnerabilities.

2. Jake Burger (MIA) vs. Robert Gasser (LHP)

loanDepot Park

Key Insights:

• 2024 Stats vs. LHP: .367 xwOBA, .251 ISO, 6.0% BB rate
• Robert Gasser’s Weakness: Small sample size but high ISO allowed

Why Burger is a Sneaky Play:

• Power Potential: Burger’s high ISO against lefties makes him a strong candidate for extra-base hits and home runs.
• Low Ownership: As an under-the-radar play, Burger is likely to have lower ownership, providing a potential edge in GPPs.

Conclusion

Today’s MLB DFS slate offers several top hitters with favorable matchups. Bryce Harper, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jorge Soler, Manny Machado, and Kyle Schwarber lead the pack with their power and consistency. Don’t overlook under-the-radar options like Elly De La Cruz and Jake Burger, who could provide significant value. Use these insights to build a winning DFS lineup. Good luck!