MLB Preview Wednesday 7-3-24

Today’s MLB DFS slate is packed with intriguing matchups and pitching duels. Let’s break down each game, focusing on the pitching matchups and what to expect overall. This preview will provide key insights, making it easier to navigate your DFS lineups.

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates – 6:40 PM EDT – PNC Park

Pitching Matchup: Miles Mikolas (RHP) vs. Jared Jones (RHP)

Key Insights:

• Miles Mikolas: Mikolas has been serviceable with a 16% strikeout rate and a 5% walk rate. His ground ball rate of 39% could help limit damage, but his 4.96 ERA and 4.64 SIERA suggest he might struggle against more potent offenses.
• Jared Jones: Jones brings a stronger profile with a 27% strikeout rate and a 3.66 ERA. His ability to miss bats (16% swinging strike rate) and induce ground balls (41%) gives him a solid foundation against the Cardinals’ lineup.

Game Matchup:

The Pirates’ slight edge in pitching could play a crucial role. Mikolas will need to control the game early to keep the Cardinals in it, while Jones has the potential to dominate with his strikeout ability.

Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins – 6:40 PM EDT – LoanDepot Park

Pitching Matchup: Brayan Bello (RHP) vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP)

Key Insights:

• Brayan Bello: Bello’s 4.65 ERA is paired with a higher xERA (4.38), indicating potential regression. His 20% strikeout rate is modest, but his high ground ball rate (56%) can be a mitigating factor.
• Trevor Rogers: Rogers has struggled with a 4.71 ERA and a high xERA (5.17). His 19% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate reflect inconsistency, and his ground ball rate (49%) isn’t enough to cover his control issues.

Game Matchup:

This game could be a battle of inconsistencies on the mound. Both pitchers have the potential to limit damage but also possess the tendency to implode. Offensive production might come in spurts, with the Red Sox having a slight edge due to their more balanced lineup.

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians – 6:40 PM EDT – Progressive Field

Pitching Matchup: Erick Fedde (RHP) vs. Gavin Williams (RHP)

Key Insights:

• Erick Fedde: Fedde has been reliable with a 3.23 ERA and a solid 22% strikeout rate. His ability to limit hard contact (31%) and generate ground balls (48%) makes him a steady presence on the mound.
• Gavin Williams: Williams’ 3.29 SIERA and 24% strikeout rate show promise, but his 11% walk rate could be problematic. His 4.61 ERA suggests he’s had trouble converting his skills into results.

Game Matchup:

The Guardians have the upper hand with Williams’ strikeout potential, though his control issues could be exploited by the White Sox. Fedde’s consistency gives the White Sox a fighting chance in what should be a tight contest.

New York Mets at Washington Nationals – 6:45 PM EDT – Nationals Park

Pitching Matchup: Christian Scott (RHP) vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP)

Key Insights:

• Christian Scott: Scott’s 3.90 ERA and 3.48 SIERA indicate solid performance. His 22% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate show he has good control and the ability to limit damage.
• Mitchell Parker: Parker’s 3.32 ERA and 20% strikeout rate are decent, but his 6% walk rate and slightly higher xERA (3.95) suggest some vulnerability.

Game Matchup:

The Mets’ advantage lies in Scott’s control and consistency. Parker will need to be at his best to keep the Nationals competitive. Look for a potential low-scoring affair if both pitchers are on their game.

Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees – 7:05 PM EDT – Yankee Stadium

Pitching Matchup: Andrew Abbott (LHP) vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP)

Key Insights:

• Andrew Abbott: Abbott’s 3.66 ERA and 23% strikeout rate are impressive, but his 9% walk rate and high xERA (4.48) indicate some risk. His ground ball rate (31%) is relatively low, making him susceptible to home runs in Yankee Stadium.
• Carlos Rodon: Rodon has been shaky with a 5.41 ERA and a 4.62 xERA. His 23% strikeout rate is solid, but his 8% walk rate and propensity for giving up hard contact (34%) are concerning.

Game Matchup:

Rodon’s struggles give the Reds a chance, but Abbott’s control issues in a hitter-friendly park could lead to trouble. This game could see some offensive fireworks, especially from the Yankees’ potent lineup.

Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays – 7:07 PM EDT – Rogers Centre

Pitching Matchup: Ronel Blanco (RHP) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP)

Key Insights:

• Ronel Blanco: Blanco’s 3.22 ERA and 23% strikeout rate are commendable, though his 11% walk rate and 4.48 SIERA suggest he’s been somewhat lucky. His ability to limit hard contact (32%) is a plus.
• Yusei Kikuchi: Kikuchi’s 3.97 ERA and 26% strikeout rate are solid, but his xERA (4.00) indicates he’s been performing to his true talent level. His control (6% walk rate) and ground ball rate (41%) are strengths.

Game Matchup:

Kikuchi’s better control and consistency give the Blue Jays an edge, though Blanco’s ability to miss bats can’t be overlooked. This game could hinge on which pitcher can better navigate the opposing lineup’s power hitters.

San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves – 7:20 PM EDT – Truist Park

Pitching Matchup: Jordan Hicks (RHP) vs. Chris Sale (LHP)

Key Insights:

• Jordan Hicks: Hicks’ 3.33 ERA and 24% strikeout rate are respectable, but his 10% walk rate and 4.47 xERA suggest he’s been fortunate. His high ground ball rate (54%) helps mitigate some risks.
• Chris Sale: Sale’s 3.58 ERA and stellar 31% strikeout rate make him a formidable opponent. His control (6% walk rate) and ability to limit hard contact (27%) are key factors in his success.

Game Matchup:

Sale’s dominance on the mound gives the Braves a significant advantage. Hicks will need to harness his control to keep the Giants in contention, but the Braves’ offense could capitalize on his mistakes.

San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers – 8:05 PM EDT – Globe Life Field

Pitching Matchup: Adam Mazur (RHP) vs. Jon Gray (RHP)

Key Insights:

• Adam Mazur: Mazur has struggled with a 7.25 ERA and 5.07 xERA, coupled with a low 11% strikeout rate and high 17% walk rate. His inability to miss bats and control issues are major red flags.
• Jon Gray: Gray’s 4.01 ERA and 22% strikeout rate are solid, though his 4.56 xERA suggests some regression. His ground ball rate (40%) and ability to limit hard contact (34%) are positives.

Game Matchup:

Gray’s consistency and Mazur’s struggles make this a favorable matchup for the Rangers. Expect the Padres to have a tough time getting past Gray, while the Rangers could take advantage of Mazur’s weaknesses.

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM EDT – Wrigley Field

Pitching Matchup: Zack Wheeler (RHP) vs. Shota Imanaga (LHP)

Key Insights:

• Zack Wheeler: Wheeler’s 3.30 ERA and 27% strikeout rate are impressive. His control (6% walk rate) and ability to limit hard contact (30%) make him a reliable option on the mound.
• Shota Imanaga: Imanaga’s 3.07 ERA and 24% strikeout rate are solid, but his low 4% walk rate and ability to limit damage (3.48 xERA) are particularly noteworthy.

Game Matchup:

This pitching duel could be one of the highlights of the day. Both pitchers are in excellent form, making this a potentially low-scoring game where every run counts.

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins – 8:10 PM EDT – Target Field

Pitching Matchup: Keider Montero (RHP) vs. David Festa (RHP)

Key Insights:

• Keider Montero: Montero’s 9.35 ERA is alarming, and his underlying metrics (4.62 xERA, 10% walk rate) do little to inspire confidence. His high strikeout rate (28%) is a silver lining, but his control issues and high hard contact rate (42%) are problematic.
• David Festa: Festa’s 9.00 ERA and 5.34 xERA indicate significant struggles. His low strikeout rate (9%) and high ground ball rate (45%) suggest he relies heavily on his defense.

Game Matchup:

Both pitchers have major issues, making this a potential high-scoring game. The Twins’ offense has a slight edge, but expect both teams to have opportunities to score.

Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals – 8:10 PM EDT – Kauffman Stadium

Pitching Matchup: Ryan Pepiot (RHP) vs. Michael Wacha (RHP)

Key Insights:

• Ryan Pepiot: Pepiot’s 3.56 ERA and 27% strikeout rate are strong, and his 3.65 xERA suggests he’s pitching to his talent level. His 7% walk rate and ability to limit hard contact (33%) are also positives.
• Michael Wacha: Wacha’s 3.47 ERA and 22% strikeout rate are respectable, but his 4.33 xERA indicates some luck. His 8% walk rate and ground ball rate (36%) are decent.

Game Matchup:

Pepiot’s ability to miss bats gives the Rays an advantage. Wacha will need to be sharp to keep the Royals in contention, but this could be a close game with both pitchers capable of limiting damage.

Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies – 8:40 PM EDT – Coors Field

Pitching Matchup: Colin Rea (RHP) vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP)

Key Insights:

• Colin Rea: Rea’s 4.16 ERA and 19% strikeout rate are middling, and his 5.31 xERA suggests regression. His ground ball rate (43%) and control (7% walk rate) are average.
• Dakota Hudson: Hudson’s 5.41 ERA and 5.56 xERA are concerning. His low 12% strikeout rate and high 11% walk rate indicate he’s been struggling significantly.

Game Matchup:

This game at Coors Field could be a slugfest. Both pitchers have struggled, and the hitter-friendly environment could lead to high scoring. The Brewers’ more potent offense gives them the edge.

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics – 9:40 PM EDT – Oakland Coliseum

Pitching Matchup: Davis Daniel (RHP) vs. Joey Estes (RHP)

Key Insights:

• Davis Daniel: Daniel’s 1.33 ERA and 22% strikeout rate are impressive, but his underlying metrics (4.57 SIERA, 12% walk rate) suggest some regression is due.
• Joey Estes: Estes’ 5.59 ERA and 4.80 xERA indicate he’s been struggling. His 19% strikeout rate and low ground ball rate (22%) are problematic.

Game Matchup:

Daniel’s performance could give the Angels an edge, but his control issues could make this game closer than expected. The Athletics will need to capitalize on any mistakes to stay competitive.

Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners – 10:10 PM EDT – T-Mobile Park

Pitching Matchup: Dean Kremer (RHP) vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP)

Key Insights:

• Dean Kremer: Kremer’s 4.16 ERA and 22% strikeout rate are decent, but his 5.48 xERA and high hard contact rate (31%) suggest he’s been fortunate.
• Logan Gilbert: Gilbert’s 3.36 ERA and 24% strikeout rate are strong. His 3.26 xERA and low walk rate (5%) indicate he’s performing well consistently.

Game Matchup:

Gilbert’s consistency and ability to limit damage give the Mariners an advantage. Kremer will need to avoid hard contact to keep the Orioles in the game, but Seattle’s offense could exploit his weaknesses.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 PM EDT – Dodger Stadium

Pitching Matchup: Cristian Mena (RHP) vs. Gavin Stone (RHP)

Key Insights:

• Cristian Mena: Mena’s performance data is not fully available, but facing the Dodgers’ potent lineup is always a tough task.
• Gavin Stone: Stone’s 4.35 ERA and 18% strikeout rate are average, and his 3.60 xERA suggests he’s been slightly better than his ERA indicates.

Game Matchup:

The Dodgers’ lineup gives them a significant edge, especially against a less experienced pitcher like Mena. Stone’s performance will be key, but the Dodgers’ offense should provide ample support.

This comprehensive pitching preview should help you navigate today’s MLB DFS slate. Keep an eye on the matchups and underlying metrics to make informed decisions for your lineups. Check back later for a detailed breakdown of top hitters and stacks for today’s games.