MLB Preview Wednesday 6/12/24

Welcome to today’s MLB DFS preview! We’ve got a full slate of games lined up, and we’re diving into the pitching matchups that will shape today’s contests. This article focuses on the pitching matchups for each game, providing key insights and statistics to help you navigate your DFS lineups.

Let’s dig into the action:

Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins – 1:10 PM EDT – Target Field

Pitching Matchup:

• Austin Gomber (LHP) vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP)

Game Breakdown:

• Austin Gomber (COL):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.334 xwOBA, 4.47 xERA, 5.03 SIERA, 4.81 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 15% K%, 7% BB%, 8% SS%, 42% GB%, 37% HC%
  • Gomber has struggled with consistency, posting a high ERA and allowing significant hard contact. His low strikeout rate and average groundball rate make him a risky option against a potent Twins lineup.
• Pablo Lopez (MIN):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.286 xwOBA, 3.19 xERA, 3.35 SIERA, 4.14 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 28% K%, 6% BB%, 14% SS%, 44% GB%, 29% HC%
  • Lopez has been a reliable arm for the Twins, boasting a strong strikeout rate and excellent command. His ability to induce groundballs and limit hard contact makes him a favorable option against the Rockies.

Key Insights:

• The Twins’ lineup has been strong against left-handed pitching, with a team wOBA of 0.312.
• The Rockies struggle on the road and have a wOBA of 0.325 against right-handed pitching, but Lopez’s skillset could mitigate this threat.
• Look for Lopez to dominate this matchup, while Gomber may struggle against a Twins offense that thrives at home.

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers – 2:10 PM EDT – American Family Field

Pitching Matchup:

• Chris Bassitt (RHP) vs. Tobias Myers (RHP)

Game Breakdown:

• Chris Bassitt (TOR):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.322 xwOBA, 4.12 xERA, 4.20 SIERA, 3.65 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 22% K%, 8% BB%, 9% SS%, 42% GB%, 29% HC%
  • Bassitt brings solid but unspectacular numbers to the mound. His strikeout rate is decent, and he manages contact well, making him a stable option against the Brewers.
• Tobias Myers (MIL):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.333 xwOBA, 4.44 xERA, 4.22 SIERA, 4.15 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 22% K%, 9% BB%, 8% SS%, 34% GB%, 24% HC%
  • Myers has been inconsistent, with control issues and a tendency to give up hard contact. His groundball rate is lower than ideal, which could be problematic against the power-hitting Blue Jays.

Key Insights:

• The Blue Jays have a wOBA of 0.293 against right-handed pitching, indicating some vulnerability, but their power potential remains high.
• The Brewers’ offense has been stronger, with a wOBA of 0.307 against right-handed pitching, but Bassitt’s steady approach could neutralize their threat.
• Expect a competitive matchup, with Bassitt’s consistency giving the Blue Jays a slight edge.

Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants – 3:45 PM EDT – Oracle Park

Pitching Matchup:

• Framber Valdez (LHP) vs. Logan Webb (RHP)

Game Breakdown:

• Framber Valdez (HOU):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.309 xwOBA, 3.77 xERA, 3.64 SIERA, 3.47 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 24% K%, 7% BB%, 12% SS%, 57% GB%, 38% HC%
  • Valdez is a groundball machine with a solid strikeout rate and good command. His ability to limit hard contact and induce grounders makes him a tough opponent.
• Logan Webb (SFG):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.339 xwOBA, 4.63 xERA, 3.22 SIERA, 3.16 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 22% K%, 4% BB%, 9% SS%, 60% GB%, 32% HC%
  • Webb is another groundball specialist with elite command. His lower strikeout rate is offset by his ability to keep the ball on the ground and limit walks.

Key Insights:

• The Giants’ lineup has a wOBA of 0.341 against left-handed pitching, presenting a challenge for Valdez.
• The Astros have a wOBA of 0.322 against right-handed pitching, but Webb’s groundball rate could limit their power.
• This game features two groundball pitchers, making it likely to be a low-scoring affair with both pitchers potentially going deep into the game.

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Oakland Athletics vs. San Diego Padres – 4:10 PM EDT – Petco Park

Pitching Matchup:

• Hogan Harris (LHP) vs. Mike King (RHP)

Game Breakdown:

• Hogan Harris (OAK):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.338 xwOBA, 4.60 xERA, 4.63 SIERA, 5.94 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 20% K%, 10% BB%, 9% SS%, 40% GB%, 33% HC%
  • Harris has struggled mightily, with a high ERA and poor command. His inability to limit hard contact makes him a risky option against the Padres.
• Mike King (SDP):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.316 xwOBA, 3.96 xERA, 3.53 SIERA, 3.10 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 28% K%, 8% BB%, 11% SS%, 41% GB%, 28% HC%
  • King has been a solid performer with a strong strikeout rate and decent command. His ability to limit hard contact and generate strikeouts makes him a strong play against the struggling Athletics.

Key Insights:

• The Padres’ lineup has a wOBA of 0.291 against left-handed pitching, suggesting some vulnerability, but they have the power to exploit Harris’s weaknesses.
• The Athletics have a wOBA of 0.308 against right-handed pitching, but King’s strikeout ability should help him control this matchup.
• Expect King to dominate this game, while Harris could be in for a rough outing against a potent Padres lineup.

Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles – 6:35 PM EDT – Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Pitching Matchup:

• Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP) vs. Cade Povich (LHP)

Game Breakdown:

• Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.310 xwOBA, 3.79 xERA, 4.17 SIERA, 8.38 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 20% K%, 7% BB%, 12% SS%, 39% GB%, 31% HC%
  • Schwellenbach has been inconsistent, with an elevated ERA and a middling strikeout rate. His groundball rate is average, and he struggles with hard contact, which could be problematic against a strong Orioles lineup.
• Cade Povich (BAL):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.306 xwOBA, 3.69 xERA, 7.58 SIERA, 10.13 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 8% K%, 16% BB%, 8% SS%, 32% GB%, 11% HC%
  • Povich has struggled mightily with control, and his high ERA and low strikeout rate reflect his challenges. His inability to generate groundballs or limit hard contact makes him a risky play.

Key Insights:

• The Orioles’ lineup has been strong against right-handed pitching, with a team wOBA of 0.347.
• The Braves have a wOBA of 0.319 against left-handed pitching, suggesting they can exploit Povich’s weaknesses.
• This game could see plenty of runs, with both pitchers struggling to contain opposing offenses.

Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers – 6:40 PM EDT – Comerica Park

Pitching Matchup:

• Jake Irvin (RHP) vs. Reese Olson (RHP)

Game Breakdown:

• Jake Irvin (WAS):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.312 xwOBA, 3.85 xERA, 4.57 SIERA, 4.04 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 20% K%, 8% BB%, 8% SS%, 43% GB%, 35% HC%
  • Irvin has been a reliable but unspectacular arm. His strikeout rate is average, and he has decent command. His ability to induce groundballs and limit hard contact makes him a steady option against the Tigers.
• Reese Olson (DET):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.296 xwOBA, 3.44 xERA, 3.99 SIERA, 3.77 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 23% K%, 8% BB%, 12% SS%, 47% GB%, 33% HC%
  • Olson has shown promise with a good strikeout rate and strong groundball rate. His command is decent, and he limits hard contact well, making him a solid option against the Nationals.

Key Insights:

• The Tigers’ lineup has a wOBA of 0.293 against right-handed pitching, indicating some vulnerability.
• The Nationals have a wOBA of 0.293 against right-handed pitching as well, making this a potentially low-scoring game.
• Both pitchers have the ability to control this game, with Olson holding a slight edge due to his higher strikeout rate.

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Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays – 6:50 PM EDT – Tropicana Field

Pitching Matchup:

• Javier Assad (RHP) vs. Aaron Civale (RHP)

Game Breakdown:

• Javier Assad (CHC):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.318 xwOBA, 4.01 xERA, 4.28 SIERA, 2.93 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 22% K%, 9% BB%, 7% SS%, 45% GB%, 32% HC%
  • Assad has been effective, posting a low ERA despite average peripherals. His strikeout rate and groundball rate are solid, making him a dependable option against the Rays.
• Aaron Civale (TBR):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.318 xwOBA, 4.01 xERA, 4.02 SIERA, 4.18 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 23% K%, 7% BB%, 10% SS%, 36% GB%, 31% HC%
  • Civale has been a steady presence for the Rays. His strikeout rate and command are good, but his groundball rate is lower than ideal. He will need to avoid hard contact against a powerful Cubs lineup.

Key Insights:

• The Rays’ lineup has a wOBA of 0.315 against right-handed pitching, making them a formidable opponent.
• The Cubs have a wOBA of 0.302 against right-handed pitching, indicating some potential for success against Civale.
• Expect a competitive game with both pitchers having the tools to navigate through the opposing lineups.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds – 7:10 PM EDT – Great American Ball Park

Pitching Matchup:

• Tanner Bibee (RHP) vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP)

Game Breakdown:

• Tanner Bibee (CLE):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.315 xwOBA, 3.93 xERA, 3.94 SIERA, 3.23 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 25% K%, 7% BB%, 12% SS%, 37% GB%, 29% HC%
  • Bibee has been a strong performer, with a good strikeout rate and solid command. His ability to limit hard contact and generate strikeouts makes him a strong play against the Reds.
• Nick Lodolo (CIN):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.278 xwOBA, 3.01 xERA, 3.36 SIERA, 4.26 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 27% K%, 6% BB%, 13% SS%, 44% GB%, 30% HC%
  • Lodolo has been impressive, with an excellent strikeout rate and good command. His ability to generate groundballs and limit hard contact makes him a tough opponent for the Guardians.

Key Insights:

• The Guardians’ lineup has a wOBA of 0.338 against left-handed pitching, presenting a challenge for Lodolo.
• The Reds have a wOBA of 0.331 against right-handed pitching, indicating they can pose a threat to Bibee.
• This game features two strong pitchers, making it likely to be a low-scoring affair with both pitchers having the potential to go deep into the game.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox – 7:10 PM EDT – Fenway Park

Pitching Matchup:

• Cristopher Sanchez (LHP) vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP)

Game Breakdown:

• Cristopher Sanchez (PHI):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.306 xwOBA, 3.69 xERA, 3.34 SIERA, 3.15 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 23% K%, 6% BB%, 11% SS%, 59% GB%, 33% HC%
  • Sanchez has been a solid performer, with a good strikeout rate and excellent groundball rate. His ability to limit hard contact and keep the ball on the ground makes him a strong option against the Red Sox.
• Nick Pivetta (BOS):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.300 xwOBA, 3.54 xERA, 3.24 SIERA, 3.89 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 31% K%, 8% BB%, 13% SS%, 36% GB%, 36% HC%
  • Pivetta has been impressive with a high strikeout rate and good command. However, his groundball rate is low, and he allows significant hard contact, which could be exploited by the Phillies’ lineup.

Key Insights:

• The Red Sox lineup has a wOBA of 0.322 against left-handed pitching, indicating some potential success against Sanchez.
• The Phillies have a wOBA of 0.345 against right-handed pitching, suggesting they can exploit Pivetta’s weaknesses.
• This game could see plenty of runs, with both lineups capable of capitalizing on the opposing pitcher’s vulnerabilities.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets – 7:10 PM EDT – Citi Field

Pitching Matchup:

• Braxton Garrett (LHP) vs. David Peterson (LHP)

Game Breakdown:

• Braxton Garrett (MIA):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.306 xwOBA, 3.69 xERA, 3.56 SIERA, 3.97 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 23% K%, 4% BB%, 11% SS%, 50% GB%, 40% HC%
  • Garrett has been solid, with a good strikeout rate and excellent groundball rate. His ability to limit walks and induce groundballs makes him a reliable option against the Mets.
• David Peterson (NYM):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.356 xwOBA, 5.18 xERA, 4.03 SIERA, 4.84 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 25% K%, 10% BB%, 12% SS%, 54% GB%, 33% HC%
  • Peterson has struggled with consistency, posting a high xERA and allowing significant hard contact. His strikeout rate is decent, but his command issues make him a risky play against the Marlins.

Key Insights:

• The Mets’ lineup has a wOBA of 0.343 against left-handed pitching, presenting a challenge for Garrett.
• The Marlins have a wOBA of 0.260 against left-handed pitching, indicating some vulnerability that Peterson could exploit.
• Expect a competitive game, with Garrett having the edge due to his better command and groundball rate.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals – 7:45 PM EDT – Busch Stadium

Pitching Matchup:

• Bailey Falter (LHP) vs. Sonny Gray (RHP)

Game Breakdown:

• Bailey Falter (PIT):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.351 xwOBA, 5.01 xERA, 4.70 SIERA, 4.59 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 17% K%, 6% BB%, 8% SS%, 37% GB%, 32% HC%
  • Falter has struggled with a high xERA and low strikeout rate. His inability to limit hard contact makes him a risky option against the Cardinals.
• Sonny Gray (STL):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.286 xwOBA, 3.19 xERA, 3.66 SIERA, 2.89 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 26% K%, 7% BB%, 12% SS%, 47% GB%, 31% HC%
  • Gray has been excellent, with a high strikeout rate and good command. His ability to generate groundballs and limit hard contact makes him a strong play against the Pirates.

Key Insights:

• The Cardinals’ lineup has a wOBA of 0.275 against left-handed pitching, indicating some vulnerability that Falter could exploit.
• The Pirates have a wOBA of 0.312 against right-handed pitching, but Gray’s skillset should help him control this matchup.
• Expect Gray to dominate this game, while Falter could struggle against a potent Cardinals lineup.

New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals – 8:10 PM EDT – Kauffman Stadium

Pitching Matchup:

• Cody Poteet (RHP) vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP)

Game Breakdown:

• Cody Poteet (NYY):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.365 xwOBA, 5.49 xERA, 4.17 SIERA, 1.72 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 18% K%, 7% BB%, 7% SS%, 44% GB%, 22% HC%
  • Poteet has struggled with a high xERA and low strikeout rate. His inability to limit hard contact makes him a risky option against the Royals.
• Daniel Lynch (KCR):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.334 xwOBA, 4.47 xERA, 5.15 SIERA, 4.87 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 16% K%, 8% BB%, 11% SS%, 38% GB%, 34% HC%
  • Lynch has been inconsistent, with a high xERA and low strikeout rate. His command issues and tendency to give up hard contact make him a risky play against the Yankees.

Key Insights:

• The Royals’ lineup has a wOBA of 0.326 against right-handed pitching, indicating some potential success against Poteet.
• The Yankees have a wOBA of 0.315 against left-handed pitching, suggesting they can exploit Lynch’s weaknesses.
• This game could see plenty of runs, with both pitchers struggling to contain opposing offenses.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – 9:40 PM EDT – Chase Field

Pitching Matchup:

• Jose Soriano (RHP) vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP)

Game Breakdown:

• Jose Soriano (LAA):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.313 xwOBA, 3.87 xERA, 3.83 SIERA, 3.64 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 24% K%, 11% BB%, 12% SS%, 57% GB%, 32% HC%
  • Soriano has been solid, boasting a good strikeout rate and excellent groundball rate. His ability to limit walks and induce groundballs makes him a reliable option against the Diamondbacks.
• Slade Cecconi (ARI):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.329 xwOBA, 4.33 xERA, 4.51 SIERA, 5.14 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 17% K%, 5% BB%, 8% SS%, 34% GB%, 35% HC%
  • Cecconi has struggled with a high ERA and low strikeout rate. His groundball rate is below average, and he allows significant hard contact, which could be exploited by the Angels.

Key Insights:

• The Diamondbacks’ lineup has a wOBA of 0.342 against right-handed pitching, presenting a challenge for Soriano.
• The Angels have a wOBA of 0.369 against right-handed pitching, suggesting they can take advantage of Cecconi’s weaknesses.
• Expect the Angels to have the upper hand, with Soriano likely to perform well against a vulnerable Diamondbacks lineup.

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Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners – 9:40 PM EDT – T-Mobile Park

Pitching Matchup:

• Jonathan Cannon (RHP) vs. Bryce Miller (RHP)

Game Breakdown:

• Jonathan Cannon (CHW):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.348 xwOBA, 4.91 xERA, 3.60 SIERA, 5.94 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 22% K%, 5% BB%, 10% SS%, 36% GB%, 31% HC%
  • Cannon has struggled with consistency, posting a high ERA and allowing significant hard contact. His strikeout rate is decent, but his groundball rate is average, making him a risky option against the Mariners.
• Bryce Miller (SEA):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.330 xwOBA, 4.36 xERA, 4.02 SIERA, 4.13 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 23% K%, 6% BB%, 11% SS%, 35% GB%, 34% HC%
  • Miller has been solid with a good strikeout rate and decent command. His groundball rate is lower than ideal, but he manages hard contact well, making him a reliable option against the White Sox.

Key Insights:

• The Mariners’ lineup has a wOBA of 0.303 against right-handed pitching, indicating some vulnerability that Cannon could exploit.
• The White Sox have a wOBA of 0.272 against right-handed pitching, suggesting they may struggle against Miller.
• Expect Miller to have the advantage, with the Mariners likely to control the game against a struggling White Sox lineup.

Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 PM EDT – Dodger Stadium

Pitching Matchup:

• Jon Gray (RHP) vs. Walker Buehler (RHP)

Game Breakdown:

• Jon Gray (TEX):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.316 xwOBA, 3.96 xERA, 4.24 SIERA, 3.57 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 22% K%, 8% BB%, 13% SS%, 41% GB%, 34% HC%
  • Gray has been solid, with a good strikeout rate and decent command. His ability to limit hard contact and generate groundballs makes him a reliable option against the Dodgers.
• Walker Buehler (LAD):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.327 xwOBA, 4.27 xERA, 3.86 SIERA, 4.82 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 22% K%, 7% BB%, 8% SS%, 41% GB%, 36% HC%
  • Buehler has been reliable, with a good strikeout rate and decent command. His groundball rate is solid, but he allows significant hard contact, which could be problematic against a strong Rangers lineup.

Key Insights:

• The Dodgers’ lineup has a wOBA of 0.359 against right-handed pitching, making them a formidable opponent for Gray.
• The Rangers have a wOBA of 0.307 against right-handed pitching, suggesting they can exploit Buehler’s weaknesses.
• Expect a competitive game with both pitchers having the tools to navigate through the opposing lineups, but the Dodgers may have a slight edge due to their potent offense.

Outro

That wraps up our preview of today’s MLB DFS slate! We’ve covered all the pitching matchups and key insights to help you make informed decisions for your lineups. Make sure to stay tuned as we will be diving into the Top Stacks, Top Hitters, and Top Pitchers articles later today. These upcoming articles will provide you with in-depth analysis and recommendations to further enhance your DFS strategy. Happy DFSing, and good luck!

Stay tuned for more expert insights coming your way!

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